jmp223

It's good to see the cold over us is still attached to that intense cold to the far NE. Some earlier runs had it detaching...can see this cold deepening and going a long way, fingers crossed.

Couldn't agree with a couple of posters above, so many people (myself) included were convinced that the Iberian low would scupper our chances of cold uppers. The models are only as good as the assumptions they are based on, and constantly being tweaked. While indeed generally accurate, our foremost meteorologists are far, far away from understanding all the drivers behind the function of the tropospheres, never mind its interaction with the strat., solar cycles etc. And especially where there is cold encroaching on our small island, the margins are so, so fine it's is exceptionally difficult to predict the intricacies of it and where and when and if it will snow. I'm keeping faith on this event delivering snow, always believed in the adage get the cold locked in and wait and see what comes next.

Right into the bay of biscay, I hope!

Intreating (ECMWF)

Still an invest Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Narnia hasn't been so tantalisingly close since 2010 please verify.

Bitterly braw this morning. I believe the GFS/ECM etc. are having trouble modelling the impact of the Azores low with the conditions in our current setup. If the system goes tropical, even although it will be extratropical by the time it interacts with us, surely it would still carry more energy/moist air up towards us than if it was a bog standard low? I believe this may explain a little of the reasoning as to why we see the divergence across the models and runs, accurately modelling the energy of that tropical low, and of course its subsequent direction and potential impacts. Personally I'm hoping it slams into the bay of biscay and dissipates, but I wouldn't put money on it! I could be talking nonsense as I'm just an enthuasist, but that's my read on it...wait and see past t+96 for me.

Bitterly braw this morning. I believe the GFS/ECM etc. are having trouble modelling the impact of the Azores low with the conditions in our current setup. If the system goes tropical, even although it will be extratropical by the time it interacts with us, surely it would still carry more energy/moist air up towards us than if it was a bog standard low? I believe this may explain a little of the reasoning as to why we see the divergence across the models and runs, accurately modelling the energy of that tropical low, and of course its subsequent direction and potential impacts. I could be talking nonsense as I'm just an enthuasist, but that's my read on it...wait and see past t+96 for me.

UKMO Yellow warnings out for Ice, Wed 6pm to Thurs Noon. They cover East and Central NI, Wales and the East Coast from Edinburgh down to East Anglia. They have minimum of -5 for my location tomorrow night, an upgrade on -3 earlier. Local weather station has dived from a high of 7° at midday to 0 at 8pm, likely below freezing now as that cold starts to embed. Just wish that Azores system would head E/SE and die! Haven't seen such good synoptics in years, would really hate for it to be ruined.

We should just drop a nuclear bomb into that low and get rid of it, I mean the 45th president of the United States touted it as a way of dealing with hurricanes so surely it'll work, right? Just trying to lighten the mood given the mornings uncertainty

A good few outliers suggesting -10 to-12 for the 8th-9th, crazy!!

to that!

Brrrrrrr 516 dam...bring it on! Thankfully I can manage to have heating on more or less when I want to as in credit but millions of people on prepayment meters are really going to struggle through this period...would not be surprised if govt. rolled out emergency top up vouchers as this is setting up to be the most sustained period of cold since winter 2010. But speaking from a purely personal viewpoint I can't wait!

I honestly thought in mid November that we were heading for a white Christmas in Athens, while we get barreled and stuck in a constant zonal pattern. It shows how quickly things can change, a lot of us were moaning quite a bit a month ago.

It's coming home...the snow that is

Premature Frostification Can someone tell me what the dam values are looking to be based on these outputs? If I recall during the BFTE we had 510-512 dam thickness.

It's beginning to look a lot like (a proper) Christmas!

Seriously, you need to point out how expensive your jumper is? If you were joking I sincerely apologise, I haven't been on these forums nearly a year so gauging peoples tone is a tad difficult. But if you were serious with the hardship loads are going through in the UK right now, that's pretty shameful.

Cap seems to be going, cloud coverage really developing where I am in last 20 mins(s.Scotland)

Nice little dusting in Glasgow. Feel like im stating the obvious but it's nowhere near as intense as it was a few weeks ago. Ach well it feels like Winter's last hurrah but lovely to look at nonetheless.

About 3-4 inches in south glasgow. Amazing powdery stuff too. Best ive seen in years

Im enjoying my sunday pint went out for some air and can really feel that easterly starting to bite. It feels 10* lower than it did 4 hours ago, even though in actuality its only dipped by about 3-4 degrees

Im praying that the snow gods deliver! I havent seen any major snowfall since I was a wee lad in 97,98 I think. And so began my fascination with weather

The probability of a Forth streamer is looking quite high for the middle of next week; my question is that being in Glasgow, does this have any bearing on our chance of snow. Have heard of a "Forth-Clyde" streamer but I am unsure as to whether this is the same thing as a Forth streamer or Clyde streamer...thanks! Im thinking its a Clyde-Forth streamer when the precip. comes W to E and Forth-Clyde when E to W. Does this theory have any merit?

NAO lower today than it was a few days ago..increased connfidence of the cold pool remaining over the UK well into March