[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Doesn’t mean that at all, it will depend on many factors - ideally sliders as they can keep the cold in place 

I certainly hope that is the case, but I would not be confident at this stage 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Big upgrade from METO longer term 

I suppose imbyness comes into it, i take from that there will be frontal systems that likely bring rain to most of Ireland, parts of England And Wales , with snow likely over Northern areas of England and into Scotland. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Snowier

Pity that low won't go under. It might mean the cold is prolonged and more areas get snow. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Let's hope the ECM backs the UKMO, otherwise we know that there will be a back track from the UKMO. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Are we satisfied the final warming- not the offical final warming, but the last warming in this series has been factored into the output? Is it possible that we could see further changes(for the better) to come over the next two or three days due to the warming? 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

6 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Are encroaching? Might be encroaching.

And, as blizzard alludes to, any signal for meaningful cold is getting pushed further and further back. The SSW fanatics were initially talking up late February for potential impacts on the UK. Then it became early March and now some are desperately clinging onto the second week into mid-March as the 'window'. See the trend?

Add in the lengthening days, strengthening sun as well as the continued uncertainty and volatility in the ensembles at that range and you can see why many are simply looking forward to spring. The idea of a poor northerly or easterly in mid-March is disgusting... cloud, below-average temps that aren't cold enough for snow for most away from the tops of northern hills and mountains... ugh.

Bring on the new season.

The SSW fanatics? I think you mean those who taken a keen interest in the strat and are knowledgeable about it.  Those posters were suggesting the 2nd week of March from what i read. Anything earlier was likely linked to the MJO. The SSW might lead to sod all, but at this time frame we can't be certain of that given there is a further sharp warming to come this weekend. If by late next week we are still seeing similar charts then i will agree this SSW was a fail. We all know it gets more difficult to have snow on the ground further on into March but it can happen as some control runs have shown. If something like that verifies the new season can wait.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

37 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is another wild goose chase I'm afraid. Now if this was a month ago I would still be interested. Not now though. It's just too late. No 2018 repeat or anything near it for that matter. That was a very extreme event for the time of year. A North America type of experience that won't visit our shores again in March for some time to come. We are now looking at mid March which is too late for me. Will be back in late Autumn. Hope you all have a peaceful spring and summer. 

See you around the 10th or 11th March ,then, when the -15 uppers are enroaching:)

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm not so sure, it looks like it's heading up to me, just a bit later, and the trough to the east looks like it will go south. We'll see I guess.

I think you are right. There is no way that low can barrel eastwards from there. If it does, I am sorry, but, I will be messing up the mods nicely folded towels again

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I would be dismissing the GFS run if it were not for the UKMO update. A big ECM tonight you feel. Don't we always say that!

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I recall a while back the thinking was the mjo and ssw could work in tandem to bring about a high latitude block, now it seems the opposite has happened- one has inhibited the other

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

You can see here the GEFS projection and the downwelling into the trop with the slowing of the zonal flow in that . The GEFS has though been a bit jumpy with runs showing different levels of downwelling .

Its clearer on the NASA charts which you can find here if you type into your search engine Stratospheric Seasonal Evolution Plots as that shows latitude .

Once on the site go to zonal wind and latitude 100 hpa and 150hpa and you can clearly see the strong zonal reversal at higher latitudes . This shows up a bit earlier than the GEFS projections .

We should therefore see the higher latitude blocking signal increasing from around the first week of March and the uncertainty really is exactly where that sets up.

 

 

Do the zonal winds reverse at 10hpa again? If not I fear we are stuck with this limpet high. Also I get the feeling there is some background factor that may work against a high latitude block as the pattern for the last six weeks has been a stationary high. If this one somehow persists into the Summer it's going to be a big problem for some parts of the UK. Maybe the second warming will force a change but I am less confident we will see deep cold now in March 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

At day ten the Ecm looks positively Spring like. .....

It would not be for long, but ECM day 10 charts are for the bin anyway

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

The GFS strat forecast is disappointing. I though that reversal of the winds at 10 hpa would be inevitable after the second warming, but there are no signs currently of that happening. I have a feeling that without this the limpet high will just meander about instead of building properly into Greenland. I have lost count of the promising 10 day ECM charts only for the model to find away to prevent the cold coming here. It has been remarkably consistent all winter  in that regard. So i am dubious of that 10 day chart  to say the least.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I am not going to panic just yet. If we are still seeing mean charts showing a high anchored too near to the UK by this time next week, then maybe we can say that this SSW will fail to deliver proper cold our way. As by this time next week the models should have a good handle on the second warming in the strat and its likely impacts. However at the moment I am still confident by the second week of March onwards  we will see a Greenland high. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

 

That is some contrast between  North and South on the 6th. Hard to believe this chart will come off as is! I would like this to come to fruition if it led to a low stalling  across  parts of Ireland and England resulting in a two day blizzard before moving back south or south west. That way Scotland and the North East of England might get snow showers. Much of England, Wales and Ireland could have heavy frontal snow, and finally as the low pushes back south, colder air from the North or North East makes it way down south again. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

It's funny because the GFS is usually the one to overplay the strength of lows. Has the GFS OP finally found its feet or is this a continuation of its woeful performance since the upgrade? I hope its the latter, but when its showing a bad outcome it would be sods law  that things turn out that way.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 hours ago, LRD said:

What a horrific thought

MOGREPS 850s haven't been posted for a while I don't think. Signs that one or two members want to start dipping by the 1st weekend of March but it's an upward curve

As I've already said, despite the cold 850s, temps are not predicted to be especially cold over the coming weekend where I live

Maybe for you it is, but not for me! I would love to see another March similar to 2013. Although to be fair I get where you are coming from.  16 c  in January would not appeal to me, but it would probably appeal some to others. I just hope we if we do get a northerly plunge that the conditions are ripe for a Polar Low to form at some stage. It has been too long since I experienced one. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the rise/drop/rise and then sharp drop in strat zonal flow over the next week, I’d be cautious about any week 2 modelling Mike and interpretations.  The envelope is huge imo 

I think what we can say is  that if we do miss out initially there will be further opportunities after that. I think this could be similar to 2013 in terms of the potential for below average temperatures at times well in to April.  Personally I hope for well below average over the next few weeks! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It isn’t flat and AGAIN you aren’t Iooking at the run and the hemispheric profile/movement.  ECM is really promising 

 

BFTP

I assume you are talking about the movement of the polar vortex over to  Asia. This should allow the high to go North soon after. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

8 minutes ago, topo said:

Terrible run, once again the cold prospects are postponed.

The EC46 did suggest it would be a slow process to a Greenland high, and it seems to rule out the first week of March for anything cold. If we are still seeing charts like this a week from now that will be a concern. As the models should have a handle on the second warming by that stage. At the moment this ECM does not concern me because the signs from  mid range tools all point to the second week of March onwards for anything interesting. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

58 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Well what a run from the 12z GFS reload after reload
The key timeframe of the high retrogressing enough is getting closer 

Let's hope we can get this to count down now with no more wobbles. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Much better UKMO than the 00z thank goodness and GFS looks like it is heading in the right direction early stages.

12z/00z

 

I know, I know. I'm outa here.

Until the end of the GFS Run, then you will be back for the ECM Run. Haha. An encouraging update from the UKMO long range. I wish it was sooner but it looks like we are relying on the second warming to knock the stuffing out of the vortex and for the effects of this to work its way down to the trop. If we get lucky severe cold could be dumped on top of us by Mid March. The ec46 has a strong signal for a Greenland high around the middle of March. The UKMO is probably influenced by this and what its own model is seeing.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

That's this morning's run but tonight's is also coming along nicely. 

May as well show it

The Vortex is coming down on top of us! Bank!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I could be totally wrong but i get the feeling if the high retrogressed too quickly we would be more likely to get a west based NAO. I think we are going to have to wait till the second week of March. If we do end up getting a direct hit we can overcome the solar obstacle. Ideally we would have heavy snow then it just stays cloudy a lot of the time. By the way where is the poster Kasim these days?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z gefs are trended that way - only a little but it’s a clear direction at the moment 

So it might be similar to 2018 in that regard. It will be interesting to see if we do get a west based NAO will there be a renewed push of colder air further on in the month as there was back then too. There is also a possibilty of a snowy breakdown for some  if a west based NAO develops.