Bricriu
-
Posts
1,001 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Bricriu
-
-
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:
no its always we are both looking on with envy while Eastern seaboard & great lakes of USA & E Europe and Russia / Siberia get it all
We need to shut off the North Atlantic drift or reverse the spin of the globe. Some people might then start searching deep fi for signs of rain in that scenario:)
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, icykev said:
Unless you lived in Ireland
First class weather event, have too look at the bigger picture like AI. NH looks primed for a memorable one
I think we are in for a special winter this year, its been some start. Lurking as usual
Where is @legritter and me stellas + baps @ . Great to be coming out of nw hibernation. Seasons greetings to you all ✌
It's nearly always the case that we are looking on with envy while England gets all the snow. Maybe this time we will get in on the action later on.
-
2 minutes ago, Dennis said:
1-3 dec may a disapp. start
A disappointing start or strat?
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, joggs said:
Anyone heard from Blast or TEITS?.
Like their output in here.
Sorry mods. Back to it.
I am wondering where blast from the past is too. I hope he is alright. You'd miss his optimism and enthusiasm for the cold.
-
4
-
-
With the low ending up in Scotland and then filling that surely means most places will end up milder for a time at least. Why can't it fill a 100 miles off the South Coast of Ireland. As someone said if there is a way to kill an Easterly the models will find it
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, NewEra21 said:
The Atlantic getting involved is never good news for proper good UK cold spells. Sure once the cold is embedded, it gives the chance of good snowfalls.
But more often than not it ends the fun and games before they ever get truly started.
It's certainly the case for most of Ireland anyway. I am expecting cold rain here. I was hoping for some dry weather if we couldn't have snow, but the GFS and UKMO has other ideas.
-
We are in the game, but these shortwaves coming together at best could delay real cold, at worst could scupper a cold spell. It's never good to see these hanging around out west. We need them modelled further south for a decent frontal snow event and then a clean evolution to cold air winging its way over us
-
2
-
-
33 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
During the snowfall on the afternoon of 28/11/2021, I was not expecting for that to settle much. It started of as light snow around 2pm, but by 3pm became a lot heavier, the temperatures dropped to around 0.5C and readily began to settle, by 5pm as it eased, there was no issue of it settling and about 2 inches managed to stick on some surfaces. I think with that afternoon, there wasn't much wind, and the wet bulb temperature likely reached freezing with minimal effort. The dewpoint was quite low beforehand as well.
However during another day in the February cold spell, also in 2021, the snow (and at times soft hail) just refused to settle during the day, despite sub zero temperatures most of that day, but as soon as the sun set, it began to settle as intermittent showers passed here. There was more wind, and a higher dewpoint though. The sun was also stronger so that might have led to more melting in the day, and refusing to stick until dark, where I got about 2-3cm by 22:00 ish.
It's often a lot more marginal for England compared to other inland areas in Europe similar latitude as us, due to probably our proximity to the Atlantic. And a lot of England is close to a body of water already, often when low pressure systems come from the west, they will attempt to bring milder air, so not easy to always get snow, they have to bump into colder air already in place here. I think the most reliable way of getting snow around here is by disturbances arriving under a cold polar airmass, such as via polar lows, (6-7th January 2010 perfect example, 18th December 2010 another I think), or with a set up seen on 11th December 2022. March 2023 snowfalls were marginal here as milder air just about made it here during afternoon with a much higher freezing level, melting a lot of the snow in the afternoon, North Midlands did much better. 10th December 2017 however perfect for settling snow most of the day with a strong frost preceeding morning, and the height of freezing level staying at the surface.
Weather - 2011 - Webb - The heavy snowfall of 18 December 2010 across the English south Midlands.pdf 18th December 2010 case study for those interested
Apart from all that, there is certainly a lot of factors in play for snow and whether it sticks, and that is what makes it more interesting to attempt to forecast accurately on our shores!
Can I just say in relation to settling snow ,the snow fall we had on the evening of 16th December 2010 was one of the most memorable I ever experienced, because I had never seen snow stick so readily to wet ground as it did that evening shortly after the transition from rain to snow. I haven't seen anything like it since either.
-
1
-
-
56 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
They'll still get a decent push of very cold air into central and northern regions in a few days time without any problem. -10C 850s touching North Carolina and Tennessee.
Will take a heck of a lot for us to overtake them in terms of the level of coldness and snow.
I said it more in jest than anything else. I know well that an average to poor winter for North America still means they are likely to get a lot more snow than we are likely to have. As regards our cold spell, let's hope there is no hangover in the morning , but at the very least we are going to have a break from the zonal flow for a few days.
-
1
-
1
-
-
11 minutes ago, Big Gally said:
After reading Judah cohen blog he doesn’t seem confident in North America / northern US turning cold but mild to very mild.
He has highlighted Northern Europe could do really well out of this and possibly the cold deepening heading into December.
I say bring it on! And if the snow falls bring it down bobby brown!!!
.
So for once some snow lovers on North American forums maybe the ones looking on enviously and search deeping fi for any sign of colder weather. Let's hope so anyway.
-
3
-
-
6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
The control run is a nudge colder to be fair! If these charts were in a months time they would certainly produce the goods.
Heights still not great towards Greenland though..
If a robust high to the north east can be maintained , it might not matter. A colder easterly may develop after day 10. From an imby perspective I would prefer a strong Greenland high but that could come eventually anyway if we maintain the blocking pattern . I really hope the idea about a boundary is correct- but for once we are on the cold side of the boundary over here and we get heavy frontal snowfall at some point-preferably Christmas week. Although snow is welcome any time!
-
1
-
-
32 minutes ago, Nick F said:
An interesting thread by Eric Webb on x / twitter explaining the unusual and unexpected developments over Europe next week, especially the -NAO. He suggests recent tropical forcing and strong strat PV would normally be unfavourable for the -NAO pattern we are seeing evolve and that it is more 'local' in situ forces that are shaping it rather than teleconnections to what's going on further afield. Reflects what I mentioned earlier but he has far more knowledge on such matters.
To me it looks like he is just scrambling for an explanation because it goes against what he thinks should be happening due to teleconnections. It's like the July situation all over again. The simple truth maybe the weather sometimes just defies the background signals? Having said that some of the things happening in atmosphere this year are the same as they were in winter of 2009.
-
4
-
-
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
In fairness the EC46 didn't see this blocking until today..
It would be sods law if it was right about the return to mild. I am just trying not to get my hopes up too much for something epic only to be let down
-
11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Just a thought.. but..
Assuming this blocking signal becomes self perpetuating and lasts until the next MJO wave is able to help strengthen that signal further, we could be looking at a pretty unbelievable December from a winter & cold perspective.
But then again I was suggesting a return to mild 10 minutes ago so, who knows!
The EC46 does not show it lasting unfortunately. By the way where is the poster blast from past/Fred I thought he would be around for this.
-
2
-
-
7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Yes, I think you are right it will be a halfway house solution. The fact UKMO aren't on board either is a bad sign, but if we end up with some settled weather with frost and fog at night it wouldn't be a bad outcome from my perspective. I have had enough of rain for a while, so even a temporary reprieve will do.
-
2
-
-
8 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:
Wow, that UKV looks nasty for central Ireland
The storm is done and dusted here in the west of Ireland. I don't think the gusts were as strong as forecasted to be anywhere(in Ireland), but still this was a potent storm while it lasted
-
50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I must be losing it, it took me ages to see that!
I saw it straight away. Maybe that's worse. The end of the ECM looks primed!
-
3
-
-
Is that ECM run an outlier or a last minute downgrade?
-
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
My eye was also caught by the gfs 00z op run later week 2 where the descending strengthening spv seemed to be repelled back by trop activity
of course late week 2 gfs trop data is unlikely to be correct so we need to see if this repeats over runs.
any promising trop patterns could easily be scuppered by a descending spv which we know is happening
Just to be clear, are you saying that the splitting of the tpv could be scuppered by the spv and as a consequence we end up with the strat and trop coupling. That could explain the thinking behind the latest UKMO update if so
-
-
1 hour ago, TSNWK said:
You're not.. and are absolutely right. It went wrong for final 2 days on that run... being such a coldie charlatan freely admit to closing meteocile browser with a huff.
The only crumb of comfort there is to the north east. If we can hold on to the heights there longer term then perhaps we could have a favourable outcome down the line- or is this just inviting everyone to be led up another garden path
-
2
-
1
-
-
6 hours ago, jules216 said:
Biggest issue is that Ural or East Európe high pressure all the way from Arabic counties in nov/dec does often more damage then good. Examples only recently 2019/20, another one to note is 1960/61 as both viable options on the table. Particularry that early november pattern looks like a copy of 1960. I ve never understood the fascination/excitment in UK about the blocking E Európe/Western Russia high that at times reaches Ural.
Was it not Ural Blocking that led to the cold spell back in the Winter of 2009 and 2010?
-
5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
Because MSCs, when/if/where they occur, are far harder to predict than are a few warm/hot days.
Excuse my ignorance, but what are MSCs? Some kind of supercell thunderstorms?
-
1
-
-
Well I think what's quite evident from the charts in fi is that the unusually warm sea temperatures around the West Coast of Ireland will be pegged back in the next couple of weeks. We looking to be going back to crappy normal summer weather for us,with the south east of England getting any warm and dry weather on offer. Still we did have almost three weeks of fine weather. So i can't grumble too much.
-
2
-
1
-
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Is the dangerous though that this low may just hang around and fill in situ before another low comes along. I was looking forward to some dry and cold weather,but now it could well be cold rain for a couple of days if the low becomes slow moving. I could deal with the cold rain if the latest GFS is correct about this just being a delay to colder weather arriving in the early days of December.