[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

59 minutes ago, booferking said:

This also for me 95% to not.

Even strat experts on twitter were banging the drum what's went wrong then?

There is never a certainty(anything nailed on)  when it comes to cold. It's looks likely,even without a major ssw, that a lot of Northern Europe is going colder in January due to the Canadian warming weakening the strat and making it more susceptible to further warmings, warmings that probably would have little impact if we had a strong vortex. We don't always need a major ssw to deliver a decent cold spell. I believe a poster who takes his name from one such spell  was the result of a minor SSW. I am sure there were others too over the years 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First -15er to come out, give me more of these, this is when the buzz starts to kick in for me, them slushy deposits don't cut it.

Yes,let's get the -28 upper air in during peak winter. No half measures as you say

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46

Early Jan

If the EC46 is correct- which I have my doubts about- is this based on the MJO moving to phase 1 and some other background factors like mountain torque events?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 hours ago, Catacol said:

It's definitely a factor and the one factor that I think was pointing in clearly the wrong direction going into the winter. As I have come to see it, high solar activity whips up the jet. Low solar leads to a less active jet. There are papers on it now, and I remember way back in the early days when it was rubbished by many including (from memory) the MetO and then, lo and behold, some proper research conducted and the above conclusion very broadly reached. We are not at solar minimum, but the hope is that one signal on its own will not drown out all the others. 

When we get to the end of the season I wonder where we will be on our ENSO analysis. Strong at the start of the season, predicted to wane to moderate by season's end. Part of the back loaded call was linked to ENSO. If Nino stays strong under a similarly strong solar umbrella than the outcome could be grim!

Your post reminds me of a 3000 word Jigsaw, your two pieces away from completing the Jigsaw only to realise you can't find the two missing pieces- that's what it seems likes trying to get cold weather in these Isles. If it isn't  the mjo underperforming, it's an up tick in solar activity or a shortwave in the wrong place. Oh did someone mention an easterly on the GFS after  Christmas....

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, interesting reading folks, but having been on here 10 years, this year is the first time I’ve seen the idea touted (by more than one poster) that unless the MJO is in 7/8/1 at high amplitude we might as well forget the idea of a cold spell due to impossibility of blocking.

Is that really what we are saying?  How does this tie in with the experience of cold winters past?  I presume the MJO was still cyclical then?  

Yes,there must have been cold winter outbreak in the past where the mjo cycle was in unfavourable  phase for high latitude blocking  or even mid latitude  blocking.  Surely there are others factors involved?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

37 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I can't think of much that can theoretically override a high amplitude MJO signal in all honesty - a strong, coupled vortex working top down would see it off....that's not what we have at the moment. Vortex is weakening.

Phases 2 - 5 are poor for us, so if the MJO progresses as fast as ECM has it progressing today towards phase 2 then our goose is cooked. I am awaiting today's CPC assessment on the MJO before making any rash calls, but I have to admit that the white towel is sat on my lap. Even with a spike in momentum which I do think we will get shortly, a COD phase of 7/8/1 as poor as ECM is modelling it - and BOM has pretty much come into line on amplitude also - would spell the end of any hope of the kick we need to get a block at higher latitude. This would leave us with a mid lat context at best, preventing any flux from stabbing towards the arctic to disrupt things there and also reducing the chances of anything like a significant wave break to provide that block.

Sadly I have spent the last few years fighting against my instincts, namely that the only way for the UK to see sustained and bitter cold in a warming world is for us to get a significant SSW, and probably a split SSW for maximum impacts. Over the last few years I have said this many times but decided to go into this year with a renewed sense of what the trop on its own could offer us. I remember swapping some messages with GP in the aftermath of the Dec 2012 fiasco and the failed torpedo: he was certainly beginning to reflect on the fact that the modern global setup was mitigating against patterns that were once more predictable in terms of response. The theory of pattern creation is increasingly being challenged by the observed reality. Any evidence for my instincts? The one that sticks is the increasing number of times that our coldest patterns are dropping into March, when impacts of a late winter strat warming are at their greatest. Increasingly, prior to March, how often are we seeing vortex-inspired westerly dominance with a northerly shunted Hadley Cell dominate Jan and Feb? Pretty much every year. We get the occasional coldish spell at the start of the season - indeed twice in 2 years now we have fallen lucky there....but once the core of "winter" arrives the pattern defaults to flat.

If the CPC do not throw us a bone later then, for me, the trop impacts of the current wave become a fail, and that will mean the end of the first half of winter. We wont see a high lat block on the back of phase 2-5 progression. All eyes will literally turn to the stratosphere and the hope that we can get some joy from a proper warming. Chances there are still good. And we may also be lucky enough to be able to time the effects of this (2-4 week lag) with the next pacific wave....and that means February or late Jan at the absolute earliest. Perhaps the seasonal models were sniffing exactly this kind of potential when they were looking at a colder Feb - though, to be honest, my mind boggles as to how seasonal NWP runs in terms of a mathematical model. If we cant get NWP accurate at 7-10 days then how on earth does a seasonal model do it at lead times of 8-12 weeks....and surely if month 1 busts then all subsequent months bust!!!

Anyway, sobering times. I am hoping my 3cm of snow at the start of the month that lasted half a day is not the last I see this season....but we may well be on the cusp of having to look way into the future at lagged impacts of a SSW. On the positive side, let no one forget the awesomeness that was Feb/Mar 2018. My favourite weather in the UK probably ever. That is what a SSW can do. Roll on the next example.

As awesome as February and March 2018 was, just imagine  if we had it during peak  winter. With this in mind if we do get a SSW in January I hope we get a qtr response.

It's interesting you mention the mjo phase  at 2-5 preventing a high latitude  block,  so are you saying even with a ssw that leads to a split there won't be the background forcing to give us a high latitude block off the back of it, that the best we can hope for is a mid Atlantic high?

If this is the case, I wonder is this what our own  Met Service (Met Eireann) and the UKMO envisage happening?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, sundog said:

I'd probably take that if offered.  Anything is better then the current muck atm . As I type damp, cloudy and 13c. Feels like a Dec 2015 day today.

Absolutely. Very unseasonal at the moment. Encouraging updates fron our own Met Service and the UKMO for January, if it's  cold weather you want.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Sometimes  I wish the GFS had only two runs a day.  The next GFS run will likely be different  again. I think the form horse is a seasonal Christmas for most with any snow confined to Scotland and perhaps high ground in the  North of England. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Thanks Briciu..

With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at such a terrible time of the year.

Hey..Xmas aint gonna be the same for me and I know that it won't be gr8 for many others on here also.. so I send you my best wishes.

I think my Dad would have wanted me to keep up with my passion for the weather,as he never liked to see me unhappy..so I will try to keep up with the occasional bit of input.

Don't get so downhearted over the models not really going for a cold and snowy Xmas! This is just a small part of the Winter duration....and we are here for the long haul.

I've noticed the mogrep 6z ens have a fair bit of support for colder around the big day, if it's cold enough or are there enough disturbances in the flow for snow will be the big question.

It's into the New Year where things could shake up... there are some signs of the strat taking a hit and just one look at that met update,with the hints of a more prolonged cold snap shows there models are perhaps sensing it out.

In the meantime folks try and enjoy your Xmas festivities and remember that a milder Xmas period means nothing for how the rest of the Winter could shape up.

God bless you all.

My deepest sympathies to you on the passing of your dad. It's a lonely feeling. I lost mine nearly 4 years ago now and even now there is still days I get  sad, especially during snow or  thunderstorms,  it might sound silly but i got my interest in weather from him and we both loved this kind of weather. What I will say is through the sadness thinking about the good memories we had helped alot. I hope it can be the same for you in your grieving. Your dad  would want you to be happy in the future  I hope you can be in time. Here to you getting experiencing a massive Snowstorm sometime in the new year!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I hope mattwolves is ok. You'd miss his optimism and humour as a counter balance at this time. 

Edit: Sorry. I didn't mean to post this three times 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The strat warming looks like a fizzler not a sizzler as well now.

I think if we are to have any chance of a proper cold spell, we are going to be relying on a displaced vortex to Asia sometime in January. Tamara's  post is insightful- the tiny bit I could understand  that is-  even with everything looking promising on the macro level it doesn't automatically  mean we will have a cold spell arising  out if it. Also something  unexpected can happen so relying on any one driver, like the MJO, as a magic bullet to bring about a cold spell is  foolhardy. I will try to remember that until the next cold chase at least:)

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Glosea has flipped to +NAO /AO for January I believe.

A disaster. It really feels like we could be here in mid January still looking for signs of a colder weather in the extended. I really hope met4forecast is incorrect about us having to wait till the next mjo cycle in February for cold . He has gone quiet since his last post.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Precisely why I'm despondent. 

As soon as we see a signal for Euro warmth highs they seem to gather momentum,yet when we see charts full of potential at say the day 10 range,they nearly always get watered down to nothing.

 

 

Is a Euro high plaguing our winter what  the glosea seasonal progged for the winter months ?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

With all the chopping and changing, I hope the models don't  converge on a halfway house solution by  late this weekend

The problem in this scenario is it will probably mean cold and wet rather cold and white for many on Christmas Eve, except for Scotland and high ground in the north.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Trust the pub run at your peril! More so if it agrees with the JMA. 

You are trying not to get your hopes up. I wonder might we still get a wind storm over the Christmas period as others have alluded to. Personally  I'd be down for a blizzard on Christmas Eve/ Christmas  Day.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks, I knew it was one of the lesser spotted American ones!  But the point stands, the evolution has been seen on the GEFS and GEM ensembles too, and some ECM 46 realisations are showing an SSW at about that range or slightly longer too.  An SSW first week of January, of the sort being shown by the models, has some implications for the way this can pan out in my view.

So you don't think it will work out in our favour is the impression  I am getting.  You are not bothered about Christmas cold,I was, but I'd get over it soon enough if January delivered  an epic cold spell. With that in mind I hope I have misunderstood you.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

From an imby perspective  I'd bank this run from the GFS for the 23rd and 24th.Too bad it's just one run and the final  outcome will probably result in cold rain for most at lower levels further north. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

A cracking run, cyclonic cold to perhaps deep cold in the extended outlook. I really hope the GFS hasn't  sobered up in the morning!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

You'll be surprised to read that I agree with you. Looks like the PV is shifting to the eastern hemisphere. Could be delaying what GEM and GFS are seeing. Or it's just an outlier

Don't see anything prolonged but it could be a potent 3 or 4 day spell at some point near or over Xmas

That will be enough for me if it happens. Then hopefully we get a sustained cold spell in the new year

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

30 minutes ago, Dennis said:

ideas 1st day christmas 

Nice Dennis. Keep these  kind of charts coming.  I wonder what are the verification stats for the GFS this year?  They led the way with the last cold spell,and it seems the ECM has now followed  their output by moving the bulk of the pv east in fi. Now if the output could just change for the better with  a straight line northerly for Christmas that would be nice  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

41 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Even if there was the downward effect may not be seen for weeks, and even then its not 100% on delivering cold to the UK. 

Yes, but it gives us a better chance of a sustained cold spell occurring than if there wasn't  a split. If it did work out in our favour we'd have a cold spell in heart of winter too for a change. What we don't want to see blocking in the run up to any potential split as they could flip the pattern  to zonal. 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

52 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Its going to be mild/very mild most of the time in the lead up to Xmas and probably rather mild/mild across it.

We can either accept that and move on to the post Christmas search for cold, or we can keep on squabbling over what already looks an inevitability and has done for a few days now.

 

 

I would disagree  slightly,  there is a chance of a colder turn in the run up to Christmas,  albeit a brief  one.

  However in terms of sustained cold I an in agreement  with you, there is no sign of it during Christmas  week,unfortunately. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

 

32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The way this gfs op brings a fairly brief cold flow and then the heights moving.back into Europe is in line with the ens means 

I think i have seen enough now to know the direction of travel up to Christmas. I know people will say more runs needed, but there is a consistent signal now for the high to move  west before it sinks back into Europe bringing back milder air. Maybe the high will eventually  move north west towards the end of December?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

This is as bad as it gets. Or as good as it gets for those of a mild persuasion. It's the complete opposite to the cold final third of December that was much touted by some. Why?

Because background signals do not guarantee  a cold spell for us. They increase the chance of one if they play ball, but it seem going by the GFS and ECM the MJO won't .

[Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks]

So is a displacement  looking more likely than a split? If the spv were displaced to Siberia, could we still eek out a cold spell from  it?