Bricriu
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Posts posted by Bricriu
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It seems to me the latest GFS run echoes the comments of Amy Butler about events in the strat. Let's hope it's not a rogue run and we can build on it.
22 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:Not the most dramatic nor long lasting reversal you'll ever see but the Ecm still going for a technical SSW at 192hr!
Would you be expecting a quick tropospheric response from that given the strat is in a weak state already? Also is there any danger it could flip the pattern to a negative outcome for us. I am thinking not given the UKMO long range, but who knows?
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1 hour ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
Yeah thats pretty crap then, starting to feel underwhelmed about next week, hopefully way of the mark on this.
What about the ukmo fax chart. That's has us back in the game big time if it's right
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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
That is a beauty of a fax chart. Northerly plunge very much in charge.
Look at north tip of Scotland…trough number 1…that’s really cold air behind that
BFTP
Could be polar low territory with that!
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2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Would be great to see GFS snow accumulation chart like latest 6z come off for once
An odd chart, not that these are reliable. I mean odd that you get a covering but so does the North West. Usually one of us would miss out.
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2 minutes ago, joggs said:
Shorter term pain for long term gain on this run,which is what I wanted.
I'd rather keep us all in cold than frontal snow for me.
I know it'll change but that's a great run for me
I agree with this. I'd much prefer it be bone dry than risk a slushfest. As it is features could pop up to surprise some of us, if not then at least we hang on to the cold
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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
As LRD says and I agree, the signs were there on the 18z. I also think moving on that the 00z was better than yesterday’s 00z…like for like
BFTP
Do you think a Scandi High is the next direction of travel given the nh profile?
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Where did this GFS run come from. Could this be the model getting a handle on all the recent warmings in the strat?
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Just now, LRD said:
All evidence pointing to it being right though, Warren. All other models have followed it. Yes, it could flip back. But it probably won't
Splitting hairs of course - cold via a N'ly or cold via wedges and a S'ly tracking jet. Result = cold. Could be disruptive with the latter option
So you are saying the much maligned GFS was right. Let's hope its right in deep fi then. Or will that be another wild goose chase where the signal gets dropped closer to the time its signalled to happen.
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If I was living in the north of England I'd overall be happy with the output. You have a greater chance of a snow event or it stays cold and dry throughout. Places further south could well just have snow to rain. I would prefer everything corrected further south in that scenario and we just stayed as things are now, cold and dry
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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yep we seem to have lost the Northern Blocking signal after the week 15th to 22nd.
This I our chance of a good cold spell
Sun to Fri hopefully..
Those ec46 seem to change so often, so I wouldn't get hung up on them showing a less favourable outcome in fi. As long as the UKMO stick to their latest update, I think we will have further opportunities for snow during the month of February
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9 minutes ago, LRD said:
The last frame on the ECM won't look like that come the time. It's just computers playing around with different scenarios in an overall cold pattern. But if it's longevity you want, then you want lows to stay well south of you
Yes, but then you potentially miss out on an epic snowfall, but from an imby perspective I'd take missing out on it, if we got a decent northerly instead with plenty of snow showers.
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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Fwiw, yes - develops a cold high
Atlantic in by day 14
So Atlantic in by the 23rd, which some have signposted for a while. Hopefully only temporary though. Much as I would love an interrupted freeze till the end of February the Altantic won't allow that. I hope if we do get a snow event on the 19th it's not all washed away as per lrd's suggestion. It would be nice to have it stick around for a couple of days.
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Fantastic outlook. Cold in the main, with any milder periods being brief. And the usually conservative text mentions that disruptive snow is possible too. Some places will surely have a decent snow event or two over the next couple of weeks, but of course it could be heartbreak for others at times, but hopefully we will all see snow at some stage before winters out.
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1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
annoying GFS still bulging - maybe not so much, but the outcome will be same I think and we lose the greenland heights.
I wouldn't panic yet, unless we see the ECM move towards the GFS this evening. If the ECM doesn't, I think the GFS will begin backtracking by the pub run or tomorrow morning.
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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
They literally said he was the chief forecaster & that he is in charge of weather warnings, i.e the role of chief forecaster. He also does other stuff too though.
P.S. There is more than 1 'chief forecaster'.
The presenter said he was previously the chief forecaster but is now in a different role within the UKMO - the head of situational awareness
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If ever there was a trolling chart...well this is it!
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Just now, blizzard81 said:
Pub run tends to be 'different'.
Last night was a great one. I think it's all trending towards what the UKMO texted forecast has indicated as battle ground conditions. From an imby perspective that rarely works out for my location, but for others, especially those further north and east in the UK, it could well work out nicely for them!
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:
D9 and the undercutting means the Azores low(s) are further south versus the 12z:
The GH dissipates progressively on this run, the fastest I have seen it modelled and with no help from the Arctic high.
We are in a cold trough, so we'll see what happens next.
I think this run is maybe a bit more realistic than the ECM output. It's bad news if you are relying on an Arctic high to force the cold south.
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A poor run the way this is going, no snow, cold, but for how long?
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10 minutes ago, booferking said:
It's looking very good buckle up
He might be talking about areas further south. A northerly isn't great for them. It initially looks good for us further north, but the battleground situation could mean we are wet rather than white. Although you are even further north than me so snow might be more likely for you in a battleground situation
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5 minutes ago, Big Gally said:
I enjoy your posts. I’m still trying to learn as I go lol. I have been listening to another experienced person talking about it turning milder from the 20th. This is because of the mjo going back into phases 5/6? Is that right? Then turning colder again around start of February? Thanks.
Milder could be a battleground scenario if the deep cold is entrenched before any Atlantic attack. Places further north and east would be favoured in that scenario, we'd probably be wet rather than white though.
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26 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Exciting times Yes and do you know what! since the introduction of the Kma I have really grown fond of it
A prolonged cold spell? Does anyone know how this model verifies compares to the big three in the verification stakes? I would really love if the answer is it's neck and neck with them:)
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6 minutes ago, Purga said:
Good ENS 06z
FI i 'back to Barty' vomitsville
Well hopefully at that range it can be treated as cannon fodder.
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Looking at gfs ops it seems to me that the strat influence into the trop can be viewed as follows
we have a stretching spv from svaalbard/barents to Greenland. We then see a warming headed into the Arctic from the pacific side which splits the vortex to Asia/canada. We see our amplified Atlantic at that same time.
the split is not maintained high up which allows the n American segment to rush back east across the Atlantic to rejoin the main vortex in the svaalbard/e Greenland. area. That will tie in with the current jet streak in fiAs Aaron reflected earlier, this whole movement of the atmosphere looks heavily coupled between strat and trop. Judging which is leading becomes quite
So are you saying basically that the absence of a proper split might be what leads to wedges rather than a robust Greenland high. ? I would love a long lasting freeze courtesy of such a high, but if a high risk high reward situation leads to a couple of days of snow I'd be happy with that. At some point it's about getting the snow in
Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Bricriu
Yes back to mentioning slightly milder weather for a time. It looks like areas further north would stay cold throughout. As long as we don't see a further change in wording to milder weather rather than an interlude of milder weather, then I am happy enough with that update