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Bricriu

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    Right, and the key to the gfs is the arctic plunge down eastern NA that amplifies the ridge into Greenland with the resultant CAA into Europe. Place your bets on the ecm doing the same but I know where my money is going

    Your money is going with the ECM  not doing the same. Regarding post 240 charts, didn't  GFS charts beyond this range correctly pick up the last cold spell?

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    image.thumb.png.ef08dcfe933d9f20b997b28cdad95e13.png
    look at the HP to out WSW and the LP south tip of Greenland…..ready to loop over NW/SE axis into a very cold UK? VERY interesting run…if just fot fun

    Added….Wow

    image.thumb.png.ee36c4c31c3c30a5beacc009f9507357.png

     

    BFTP

    The strength of the high is impressive, but it looks to me that the pattern is flatlining into a westerly flow.  It's all a long way out, but the trend certainly seems to be for a high that meanders  around instead of going North West. I am just hoping the ECM and GFS are at present under estimating the MJO signal and in a few days we will see the models respond accordingly with a high that goes North West instead of thinking about it and sinking to the south west  instead

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

    How on earth did you miss out on 2009 & 2010? 

     

     

    19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    09 a front came up from the SW and put pay to England white xmas, perhaps the boundary was between N parts of Rep of Ireland and N Ireland.

    That's it. We had freezing Rain in 2009. It was bone dry in 2010.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, MJB said:

    The xmas period is 15-16 days away , I am struggling to understand any doom at the minute, normally you wouldn't be looking past 144 - 168 why are you looking so far ahead .

    Puzzled

     The reason  is because it has been nearly 20 years since I last experienced a white Christmas.  I would normally be more optimistic, but given  the current guidance it 's not look likely we will see a white Christmas.  I appreciate that could  change but then surely we would  be seeing signs of it in the extended . All the indications so far are for a northern toppler that could deliver to some areas, but any cold is likely to be transient in that scenario.  I will get over not having a white Christmas, if we get a proper cold spell during what's left of peak winter. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bricriu

    17 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Evening. Not sure about the wheels coming off its the 9th of December? I've not seen any runs this week that showed a strong push of heighths high up into Greenland. High over the uk and way out in fi atlantic ridge. A dry spell will be most welcome by a lot of folk. 🙏

     

    Well, that's the point no models are showing a push of heights into Greenland which was the hope given background drivers looked favourable, at least on some output  Yes, it will be dry, but some of us were hoping for a bit  more for the Christmas period but the chances of that  happening are fading  based on current output. Perhaps there is still time for it to change for the better, but we don't really see broad support for a proper cold spell in the extended outlook. Perhaps a northern  toppler might deliver to some areas during Christmas week. Let's hope so anyway.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bricriu

    20 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

    Why so many negative when the MJO signal isn’t even being factored in yet to the models? Surely when that becomes apparent the blocking showing up is likely to increase.

    I just wonder  do the UKMO factor it into their forecasts? Could it be the other models don't see it being amplified  enough to lead to a HLB. We have to hope it is as you say, and the ensembles will soon start showing support for a block that leads to cold  weather. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    image.thumb.png.a5198ad9f04deaa59eeeca61eb956ae3.png

    UKMO 168 left ,EC 168 right.

    subtle but important differences in the Atlantic  - hopefully EC 00z is wrong because its building the PV exactly where we don't want it and I can't see any easy route to cold at day 10 either.. 

    Edit day 10 mean is dreadful

    image.thumb.png.b08532eb81e7f13d7fe3e722f2c23c67.png

    Time for the more knowledgeable posters to offer insight but if EC and its mean are on the ball as far is Xmas is concerned ,its a bust.

     

     

    Unfortunately that would tally with the UKMO idea of a sinking high. I just wonder is the MJO going to screw us over in the end. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well it looks  nailed on to be dry  looking at the lastest output for after mid month. After three days of non stop rain and gloom,  I am  looking forward to some dry weather again. Cold and snow would be a bonus. Hopefully the UKMO and ECM will follow the GFS in future runs, but as a poster said cold rarely comes in sooner than anticipated,  so it could be see a colder turn the far side of Christmas. At least we are in the game for  a white Christmas.  It must be 19 years since I last had one. Come on 2023 deliver one!

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Let's see if we get an encouraging update form the UKMO text forecast. Are those ECM clusters  showing a sinking high an indication that the MJO forecast will  be weak phase 7? Is it possible that one of the teleconnections could let us down? I just hope its a case of the ECM not going out far enough to show the high going north west. It would be very disappointing  if it doesn't get there in time for Christmas.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, TillyS said:

    In terms of something appearing to be seasonal, yes, agreed.

    But the problem with an inversion high scenario (‘faux cold’ is my favourite new phrase!) is if they stick around, and around, and around. It’s easy to lose several weeks of winter without anything synoptically meaningful from it. A case of be careful what we wish for?

    Anyway, at the moment the runs don’t really support a solid HP stagnating over the UK. Even on the GFS the HP looks mobile (if the GFS 0Z is ‘positive’ then are we grasping at straws a little bit?) and on the ECM it’s both mobile and to the south, keeping the north, and especially the north-west of the UK, mild to very mild. In fact with the kind of airflow in place there could be some high Foehn effect temperatures from that.

    There’s such huge zonal mobility to the north of the UK on these runs. No block anywhere to be seen now. And it will continue to push away the hard-won cold pooling over Scandinavia.

    We’re only one week into winter so it’s hardly cause for despair. A zonal week ahead though. And maybe more.

    I don't think this high will be sticking around for weeks on end, either it will sink or go north. We hopefully will see the models  playing catch up,  but it might not be in time for Christmas.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Downburst said:

    Will have to keep a beady eye on the higher pressure anomaly (isn’t necessarily actually high pressure yet) south of Greenland moving north on future runs. Period 25th to 1st. But it’s brilliant to see even this genesis hint I have to say. Looks like Scandi high is out for now.

    image.thumb.png.03e1cf180e9409c22d7390ec18b8f519.png

    If the speculation earlier on about the MJO proves to be correct, a mid latitude high might be the best we can hope for after mid month?

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, fromey said:

    Just seen this posted!

    Anybody want to hazard a guess if this is true or not?

     

    IMG_7971.jpeg

    It could be true,because If we get an ssw in the first week or so of January, it could be three weeks before we see the effects from it in the Troposphere . I hope it's wrong, as I would prefer a cold spell during January rather than February. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    I'm looking at the period 14th onwards for High Pressure taking over - 

    Hopefully the 12zs continue that theme,I'm OK with a cold High in the run up to Christmas.

    Actually on second thoughts I want frigid Easterlies over Christmas!!😁

     

    2 hours ago, booferking said:

    Met office update colder weather still in there update hopefully the NWP lash onto it and run it down to a snowy festive period. 🥶

     

    Most likely to be unsettled with further bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between. The wettest and windiest conditions are most likely in the west and northwest. The chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazard such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period. However, conditions are more likely to remain generally mild and wet

    If i am not mistaken, i seem to recall for the  cold spell just gone their long range mentioned  a slight chance of colder conditions a couple of weeks beforehand. So like you say it's a positive they  have not dropped the idea from their text. They won't commit to a cold spell until they are absolutely sure.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Dennis said:

    well how about this one

    katjing 

    image.thumb.png.c2611d11658c2d56f4cb2d733273f38b.png

    That  will just about do Dennis.  Let's count it down:) I know this chart  is well out of date now,  but let's hope it is repeated  in the days ahead. I am still hoping that something good can come during Christmas week courtesy of the MJO doing the right  thing for cold fans.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    As we all know those EC weeklies and zonal winds have been hinting at strat disruption for a while..and according to Judah an event could take place in early January,with the warming being centred over the pole..and not being based on zonal wind strength. All eyes on the backend of the month. Forget this week and probably next but fixate on events possibly changing for the better shortly after.

    Screenshot_20231204_131635_X.jpg

    I am really hoping for proper cold around Christmas week- it has been years since we had a white Christmas- courtesy of the mjo in phase 7 or 8. As other have said that is  no guarantee  of high latitude  blocking.  If it does deliver the last thing the  we want  is a northern  Hemisphere pattern conducive to blocking being  upended by a displaced  polar vortex or a split that  leads to a lobe of the vortex in the wrong place and we end up with mild south westerlies. From my limited understanding  that is more likely with a  displacement than a split, though.

    It is good that we are with a chance of an SSW in Janaury but i am certainly not pinning  all my hopes on it delivering white gold for us given past fails . The MJO might not even deliver, which would be a real kick in the teeth given what we have currently seems to go against background drivers. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bricriu

    2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    The Siberian high needs to do one if it’s just going to block low pressure from clearing the UK .

    Another GFS run with low pressure filling over the UK . Cold air to the north trapped there .

    Again it depends on your focus, a Russian  high rarely backs far enough west to halt the Atlantic,  and as you say we are then stuck under stalled lows, however it could be a case of short term pain for long term gain- if we maintain the Ural high the model analysis might be very exciting during January. Hopefully  the mjo in phase 7 will provide some good  output well before that, though. 

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