Bricriu
-
Posts
1,001 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Bricriu
-
-
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
So….are we about to see extraordinary synoptics on the 18z? Just watched snows of 47……brilliant
BFTP
Are you thinking a scandi high is going to develop on the GFS?
Just now, Kasim Awan said:It's disappointing it sinks, but if it's only a brief delay then it doesn't really matter.
-
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
This is surely our best shot at a mid Winter cold spell for what seems like an age..
Really hope it comes off...
Yup. It's fantastic to have a new years day whereby we are potentially on the cusp of a decent to possibly epic cold spell in the heart of winter for once. It's a rare thing these days
-
6
-
-
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
If the ECM is correct we are on the cusp of a 2 week or more big freeze - I reckon, maybe much longer. A rare thing!!
Let's hope so, as the longer it sustains the more likely others will get in on the action too. If we manage to get a robust high into Greenland, a Northerly would come surely come at some point
-
3
-
-
I might have to toast the ECM output tonight. Let's hope it's not an outlier.
-
2
-
-
10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
astonishing cold from the north….bin it
BFTP
No. Bank it! We would be in polar low territory there surely. If only it would come to pass!
-
If the GEM is correct then it certainly tallies with the UKMO text forecast where the interest was always going into the second week of January.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Someone just rang the BBC weather studio and said its looking like a dry January! But for many on here that's simply just gonna mean staying of the drink for a few weeks..
I kid you not netweather crew the 12z ens from ecm are better than the 0z ones and some of the best I've seen...Some fantastic sypnotics around the Northerly latitudes.
Those of you calling this a bust largely based on the gfs need to view some of these ens as there's alot going on. I'm thinking cold upgrades are incoming and the met are all over this like a cheap suit.
2023 goes out like a lion with wind and rain...it comes in like a lion with wind and rain mid week..it then goes chilled out with frosts and light winds....and it finishes like a bloody crackpot with wintry hazards!
2024 is coming and it's going to be bringing some exciting weather....stay tuned folks.
The 2024 chase is now beginning..rejoice with me...call my helpline 088880088889999988 if your getting a little stressed and gfs disorientated...my team are on hand 24/7 to put you straight and ease the pressure.
Lol. My dad always said I was dropped on my head as a baby...love ya dad RIP.
Your posts are always amusing. It's a testament to your character you can still be cheerful and provide a laugh for us at all at this difficult time for you. I don't have to call that helpline due to your post. Onwards to a snowy January that does not relent till some time in March!
-
8
-
1
-
-
Let's have a GFS pub run to match the night that's in it!
-
2
-
-
2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:
Very happy with the ecm to my eyes is not sinking looking like holding getting colder day by day and the high moving north later. It’s not full blown blizzards from east but it’s getting colder I think we need to be patient .
I will take that , if only to get a break from the rain. Hopefully it's just a holding pattern like you say.
-
21 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
I do think it will turn cold under that high and I'm not completely discounting the ECM/UKMO just yet, just stating probably the least likely outcome.
The ECM run tonight maybe telling. If we see it move towards the GFS then I suspect the UKMO will change in subsequent runs. Even if this happen it's not game over, however if we are still chasing day 8 and 9 chart by the second week of January then it most likely is as without a Major SSW I feel we are on borrowed time for a cold spell.
-
2
-
-
27 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
The same mechanisms that created the SSW are still happening just w/less amplitude, the vortex isn't split but it's still going to be significantly 'hurt'. The teleconnections are still favourable just a more transient signal maybe.
So if we had got the major split the chances of a cold spell lasting longer would have been greater. It seems Mike Poole and you are in agreement on that. No cold spell will hang around forever anyway. If we manage to get two or three snowy days out of this I'll be happy.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
This is a trend we really don’t want to see but does seem to be gaining traction. High pressure becoming UK based rather than higher amplitude.
Cold yes, but snow risk would be rather non existent. Hopefully we start to see a trend back towards something more amplified.
It would fit in with the UKMO outlook. Cold and dry at first, with the chance of snow increasing going into the second week of January
-
17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
+NAO seems a little while off yet. Clearly the first half of January will be defined with -NAO it is not transient.
AO also if interested the spread at the end is interesting….
The potential cold spell doesn't really get going till after the first week of January,though. So that's already eaten up sometime. We may get a three to four day cold spell into the second week of January but I am not seeing a prolonged and severe cold spell happening given the modelling of the vortex. We haven't see any charts build a robust high latitude block. Any blocking looks tentative to me and at risk of sinking in over us.
-
1 hour ago, Jason M said:
Wherever we end up, one thing worth noting is the lack of 'blocking'. There are some good charts in isolation but if you run through the sequences on nearly every run and ensemble things are very mobile. I'm not talking about zonality clearly but if we get any cold, snowy weather its likely to be brief before a change comes.
So, you might see an easterly for 36 hours, then a UK high for a couple of days, then a short mild slot and so on.........
There is potential here but we don't seem to be looking at a static pattern where we could get an easterly for 4-5 days.
Yes, the latest NAO index update would suggest nothing prolonged or severely cold unfortunately. It may well be the recent GFS OP runs are correct. A weakened and stretched vortex probably isn't enough, as any residual energy left over Greenland can be enough to scupper a cold spell. At the very least I hope we get a respite from the rain for a few days.
-
1
-
-
4 minutes ago, booferking said:
There's that word again evertyime when chasing cold *Delayed
Always the way. The mild hardly ever gets delayed.
-
2
-
-
Just now, Kasim Awan said:
5050 between cold and Azores high pushing in for me.
We could get faux cold if the Azores high pushes in after a while. I obviously want snow as much as the next guy but we know if there is a way for it to go pear shaped for us it usually does.
-
1
-
-
At the very least it looks like it will become cold and dry- after all the rain of late I will take that. We have floods in places that usually don't flood at the moment
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
It's not unusually wet for mid Winter. Nor is it very stormy despite all the hype. Indeed even though we are flying through storm names we've had little interest in what's being thrown
I beg to differ,maybe not down in Cork with you, but up here there has been rain nearly every day of late.
-
1
-
-
The GFS op run is what I would expect to see due to the major SSW being a bust. We will have a weakened Strat vortex and weaker zonal winds, but it looks like too much residual energy in the wrong place to me. I hope I am wrong but I am getting a feeling this will end up just like the letdown in the run up to Christmas.
-
Have we lost the Ural High in fi? That could be a disaster going forward. I think the latest model runs could end up in major disappointment if residual energy is still left over Greenland.
If that's the case any ridging high may collapse on top of us. Well at least it would be cold and dry in that scenario.
-
At least the heights seem to be going from Iberia on this run. Maybe further on the cold will flood south.
-
We need sufficient downwelling, otherwise I think any ridging northwards will be temporary before the Altantic takes over again. Are we going to be in a typical Nino situation where we have to wait till February for proper blocking. It's a kick in the teeth if we do after all the hope of a decent cold spell in January. I will take a cold spell at any time,but one during peak winter would be fantastic.
-
1
-
-
We can still get a cold spell without the reversal, but I have to say some of the op runs are giving me a feeling of de Ja vu with the Iberian High being the villain of the piece yet again. It will be extremely disappointing if we end up with another late winter cold spell when the prospect of a peak winter cold spell was on the table .
-
1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
Perhaps worth baring in mind that you don’t need a technical SSW (reversal) to see downwelling & impacts.
The minor SSW in 1991 led to that February cold spell, for example.
Technical SSW of not, we’re going to have a very weak vortex in the middle of winter with other variables falling into place. Not the worst position to find ourselves in..
I think also December 2000. A minor warming could still lead to a major one later on in any case. At least with a minor warming there is potential for furthering warming going into the strat
8 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:Daily Express
Whatever happens we don't want to see you for the next two months.
-
6
-
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Bricriu
The high looks to be going a bit too close to Canada for my liking. A west based NAO?