Bricriu
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Posts posted by Bricriu
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
OMG
-20 UPPERS moving through Iceland
Let's have a repeat of the February 5th 1969 chart that was posted last night!
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1 hour ago, ITSY said:
Just a word of warning to keep people grounded - unusual from me I know. Yes the charts this morning are jaw-dropping, by and large. But there are variations and nothing is banked just yet. The GEFS mean at day 10 is slightly less confident on Greenland compared to the 00Z (see below). At this range interrun variability is to be expected and the broad pattern is almost identical so it may not be much to worry about. But we do need to pay close attention to what is happening all around us - in Canada, Alaska and Scandi - not just in our corner of NW Europe
As long as we don't see support suddenly grow in the ensembles for a less cold option in the next few days. As you say all it take is for one little things to go wrong in the broader scale picture for our cold spell to vanish. My worry would be a low to the south west not undercutting and then cutting off the cold air.
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8 minutes ago, BIGDOG2 said:
I will be more confident when I see there are cobra talks in place I have been up this garden path to many times over the last few years I just hope this garden path has the pot of gold at the end
It would be good to hear from the poster who mentioned his workplace gets briefing from contingency planners regarding cold outbreaks.
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2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
GEFS18z P23 not reading the script:
and unfortunately it's not the only one. Plenty of time for better, though.
As long as we don't see more of these popping up in the days ahead
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1 minute ago, LightningLover said:
-32c uppers on far right!!
What temperature would you get at the surface if that made it to the South East of England without being modified?
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I wonder what the coldest uppers have ever been from a northerly.
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Dare I say reminiscent of late Februrary 2018. When that seem to count down seamlessly. Let's hope for no wobbles tomorrow
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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
Yes, a timely reminder. I remember the poster GP being stunned when a cold spell vanished from the models at only 48 hours out
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If I am not mistaken didn't the Glosea long range go for a mild winter overall? I think someone mentioned they failed to spot the Canadian warming? If this cold spell comes to pass, could it be in the main due to the Canadian warming weakening the strat vortex? Did the winter of 1963 have a Canadian warning?
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2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
Brutal cold on this GFS serving.
I want to see the purple making its way over us:). What would the day time temperatures be with this?
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11 minutes ago, Liam J said:
Apologies as I didn’t realise you were talking about the Irish Met service
No bother. Let's hope the UKMO is right!
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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:
What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.
Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now
There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy
The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least. It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January, then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average temperatures for us.
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3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
If our UK high shifts any further NE it's going to become a Scandinavian high instead.
Subtle shifts north & east across the last few ensemble means and now we have an easterly flow across the south. Not quite there yet for it to be convective, pressure is still too high but it's still not resolved and the possibility of a convective easterly is still on the table.
What's clear is we are now looking at a very protracted period of below average temperatures & increasing snow risks. 2-3 week cold spell anyone?
I think that's a bold call. We will be doing very well if we get a full week of snowy cold out of it. I'd love if you were right though .
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
We seem to be growing our own cold pool as we wait for Mr Arctic to call by..
A bit disappointing from an imby perspective . I was hoping for ice days by this point, but if the high does go into Greenland a couple of days later that will be soon forgotten about
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Yes, if these runs aren't great for cold and snow, i'd like to see some charts when said posters think they are good.
Its a great chart from an imby perspective. I hope it comes to fruition! If it does then Kudos to the UKMO texted forecast which signposted this
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:I don't feel welcome in here anymore. Ciao.
That's a shame you feel like that. You are a very knowledgeable poster. I hope you reconsider and come back.
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
I have no concerns regarding this cold potential. The high latitude is not a concern nor is a west based tendency during the second retrogression.
Sarcasm.I think your concerns are well grounded. We need to keep in mind that famous ECM chart. Cold spells can disappear all of sudden for us. Too bad it never seems to happen with mild spells
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
It doesn’t end up too bad
The high looks slightly further east there compared to last night's run. Fine margins.
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Just now, Met4Cast said:
Can’t say I’m particularly concerned at the idea of a west based -NAO, nothing all that supportive of the idea outside of a few det runs, we can’t even resolve the initial high early next week so worrying about what type of -NAO we have approaching day 15 is a waste of energy.
I will say - Background forcing doesn’t suggest a west based -NAO at this time.
I can only hope you're right, but there are many unforeseen way cold spells can be scuppered for us.
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4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
And a west based -NAO. Both are big concerns.
Very frustrating if it does go west based. One obstacle overcome then another pops up
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:GEM T240:
Big Greenland high, vortex headed towards us.
GFS T240:
Took a more tortuous route, alignment now rather poor, but it won’t happen like that, just good to see the retrogression aspect pretty much nailed.
How can you be sure it won't happen like that? Two GFS op runs have now shown the danger of a west based nao. All the concern about a sinking high then it looks like the high could go too far west in the end. Excellent trolling from the GFS
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1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:
I'm getting a bit nervous, that we could end up with a Southerly as time moves on fingers crossed we stay in a easterly regime.
2 minutes ago, MJB said:
This could end up good...............................could
As long the high doesn't go too far to the North West in the end
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2 minutes ago, booferking said:
Gem looks decent should retrogress to Greenland from here.
It would be great if the ECM followed this tonight.
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3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
The main concern still is and probably still will be for a while the high sinking into the Azores.
It would be a real kick in the teeth if that concern is allayed only for the high to drift too far north west in the end.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes. In future runs that low to the south west could be a spoiler for instance. I am going to try and contain my excitement for now .