Bricriu
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Posts posted by Bricriu
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1 hour ago, offerman said:
Good post Frosty. But the fact of the lack of Greenland and Arctic Heights is allowing Iberian and Hadley cells to expand as everything is out of kilter
if you had an expanding Greenland high and Arctic high, this could balance things out, and probably reduce the constant influence of the resource, and Iberian Heights.
so good post from you as to look at it from that direction of the lack of the Heights in the north.
I guess the way I could summit up is look at it like a pair of scales.
On the left side, let’s go it, Greenland Arctic Heights and on the right side let’s call it, Iberian , Hadley cell azores.
If we reduce the weight on the left side, then the right side will be the dominant factor.
so thanks for your post. Good information that Adds to the reasoning of the high-pressure systems dominance to our south, which I sometimes post about.
I guess the next thing we could look at is, why are the Greenland and Arctic Heights so much less dominant than they were previously, and also as someone mentioned earlier, there is no consistency on a day-to-day basis.
is this down to a disrupted or broken current polar vortex or is this something else?
The MJO in a less favourable phase than it was back in 2018 and the absence of a major SSW might be the difference. When we are relying on a stretched or displaced vortex there is always a risk that elements of the tpv move back to the wrong place in terms of getting cold in.
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2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Not *too* worried about that yet given the scatter & uncertainty that has suddenly been thrown into the mix, we do often see modelling too eager to remove blocking & that could be what's at play here too, especially given the spread on how the blocking evolves in the first place.
I wonder if the uncertainty with the MJO is playing a part here along with the current minor warming in the strat.
It's funny in December when we wanted it more active in phase 7 it failed to oblige. Now that it might be stronger in phase 4 than anticipated it could be a hindrance to maintaining blocking. Can we ever catch a break.
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1 hour ago, icykev said:Not true, Met Eireann going for cold out to week 3 before confidence begins to wane
The text forecast on their website was indicating milder weather for this weekend with rain. That's what I was referring to
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2 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:
The thing is it tallies with the strat forecasts which have moderate warming working around the other side of the NH, pushing the SPV towards Greenland.
It’s why I tried to stress the importance of the split…Some people wouldn’t have it though.
True. A displacement or stretched vorted is rarely good for cold over us, there will nearly always be too much residual energy left in the wrong place that will scupper a cold spell.
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16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
If Ireland is broadly mild and wet it'll take some exceptional synoptics to produce cold in the UK.
Don't take this post out of context I am merely referring to the synoptic pattern forecast in his post.
I can remember several occasions where we went mild but it stayed cold in the UK with heavy snow there while we had rain. Although I see what you are saying in a robust zonal set up the UK would eventually go mild too.
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2 minutes ago, LRD said:
Canadian Low will just flatten everything though. No point over-analysing this far out but it's a very disappointing ECM tonight (in its later frames). Its ensembles and EC46 will be interesting
The fact that Met Office and the NOAA charts that John Holmes uses, coupled with the fact that the other ops are good means we shouldn't worry too much at this stage. Fascinating watching this all play out
Unless the ECM op is leading the way and they all flip. For what it's worth our Met Service has milder weather with rain for us after the weekend. Of course that doesn't mean the UK will be mild too.
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1 minute ago, MJB said:
LP to the SW has got across to our neck of the woods a lot quicker than the 6z, again so far out nothing to worry about. This is the sort of scenario the MET have mentioned, someone could get buried, if timings aligned
High risk/ high reward stuff. It looks good for Northern and Eastern areas of England.
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26 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:
Some good layman's term info on it from the metoffice
Fantastic video. Thanks a lot for sharing it
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Is the easterly phase of the QBO aiding us this year somewhat.? Would these warmings that are falling short of a major ssw not be enough if it was in a westerly phase?
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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Ridiculous lol
I am burnt out. Haha. I can't take anymore twists and turns. Is it true that less data goes into to this GFS run?
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Just now, MJB said:
And in 360 hours the trend you are chatting about won't be the trend you will be looking at when viewing the T24 + charts......................I bet
It will probably be showing blocking at t240:)
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3 minutes ago, warrenb said:
And a long way to go to get there. Seriously it is a 360 mean
Not really. A bad trend has set in. First we had model wobbles showing heights waning from Greenland, now we have mean charts coming around to that scenario. We can expect to see a big change in the ec46 tomorrow as a result of this. This is harder to take than if we had than less than stellar background conditions to begin with.
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What are the thoughts on Judah Cohens latest update?
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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
You are right about all of this.
I think what is haunting some people as we try and count this down, and this includes me, is the spectre of the scenario that we could have all of this, repeat, all of this, and still lose, end up with diddly squat in terms of a UK winter.
It would be quite another level of defeat, compared, say, to a raging polar vortex and strong Atlantic jet stream, or a 3 month Bartlett high.
It just doesn’t bear thinking about.
Yes, as Nick S said you can have great ingredients and still end up with a poor meal. While the nh profile is synoptically great most people won't care if we end up with South westerlies by default or cold air mixing out due to the colder air not pushing far enough south. As you say it would be a real gut punch if that's where we end up.
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3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Variations on the same theme is what I see from the latest model runs, this is a blocked atlantic, with heights either just to our north and west preventing any significant cold from moving in from the NE, but cold all the same, or further NW allowing the cold trough to our NE to pool over the UK, possibly merging with low heights to our SW.
It all seems a bit too messy, we could end up with cold rain instead of snow for many. This ECM run feels like a gut punch to the stomach. We can only hope its not well supported. Typical GFS to not be performing particularly well in the verification stakes, but could ending up being right with its signal for heights to wane in Greenland.
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
As Ido noted earlier, we have quite a spread of solutions across the polar field and that won’t help the pattern over the n Atlantic to have consistency
As long as the scatter doesn't grow into a consensus for a less cold/ non snowy option. We could get a snowy outcome without a Greenland Block as the UKMO is indicating.
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Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:
Gfs wants to have another go at 270..looks like may fail that also..I will go with what others are saying,but it looks very similar to its 0z run..hope it's no trend setter!
The GFS run might tally with our own Met Service(Met Eireann) and what the UKMO long range are thinking. They both seem to be suggesting a mid latitude block rather than a high right into Greenland. So it wouldn't be a major shock to me if the GFS has it right this time. We just have to hope if it does that it still leads to a snowy outcome in week 2
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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
They see some retrogression of sorts
"Into the following week, as the high is forecast to build further to the west, there is an increasing likelihood of northerly winds developing, introducing colder air once more. With this comes the risk of snow showers"
It doesn't sound like a Greenland high. Some people will be disappointed by that as it lessens the likelihood of deep cold, but if a mid latitude block is far enough away to deliver a decent northerly, I don't mind so much from an imby perspective. I'd love severe cold, but it's snow I am ultimately after. Hopefully others could get in on the action in time too.
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3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
I am starting to think that the Azores low is a good thing as once the PV pushes South it will link the two systems creating a NE flow from Russia to the Azores islands.
There is a lot of risk to that. It's never a good sign to see Greenland heights wane if you want to prolong a cold spell in my opinion. I hope i am wrong and that this run does not have much support.
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55 minutes ago, IrelandWeather said:
I thought I was understanding this west based -NAO more this week from reading posts about it but clearly I'm still stumped clearly!
If you have time can you explain why the GFS 12z FI isn't an example of west-based? Say Day 9/10 onwards. High migrates NW to Greenland, but it doesn't stop there and continually moves westward towards Canada (maybe moves is the wrong word, it's clearly weakening/draining away as it pulls towards Canada rather than a strong block moving west). It ends up with SW'lys by the end of the run. Of course, I'm aware it's one det run and FI and will change, but I'm asking more in the sense of 'this is what I thought X was, why am I wrong'.
Perhaps others commenting about west-based -NAO, when it is in fact not being shown on any runs, have also confused what it is like me, in the sense of interpreting what I outlined above from the GFS 12z as being an example of it? I'm a novice so literally thought it meant the HP moves westwards towards Canada! TY in advance if you do shed some light on it.
The KMA model has also shown how it could go west based. I don't think it's fair that posters are being accused of being overly negative when they are just commenting on op runs that are fraught with risk. I want snow just as much as the next person, and admittedly we have a good chance of getting some, but things could easily go awry.
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6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
I keep seeing talk about a west based -NAO and I keep seeing absolutely no evidence for it whatsoever within any output or ensemble suite..
There were a couple of op runs that showed the high going perilously close to Canada. It wasn't a west based nao set up but it was a bit close for comfort. You can see on the KMA model posted earlier how things could go wrong. We all remember that ECM chart from years back of how things can go wrong all of a sudden. We are in the game no doubt, but it could still go pear shaped.
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Just now, January Snowstorm said:
Synoptically it certainly is. But the uppers tell a less cold picture, at least initially
It's as someone said you can have great ingredients and still end up with a crap meal. I would take it being synoptically less than great if we got snow rather the other way around. In saying that the ECM if it had a day 11 chart could be great. We need to see this counting down now though rather than getting delayed/ pushed back.
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That ECM run is a bit disappointing, but hopefully the rain showers would be turning to snow by day 11. What I don't want to see is more delays to snowy cold arriving. That we are not constantly chasing eye candy day 10 charts. I still have a nagging feel the high won't stay stationary in Greenland for long and that we could end up with a South Westerly by default due to the high going too close to Canada in the end. That would be a real kick in teeth after all the waiting around if that were to happen.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
All this talk about climate change, some of us might be happy if it led to a shutdown or a real slowing down of the North Atlantic Drift in our lifetime, then we would be getting something like the winters they have in Canada. Although some would miss the drama of model output in that scenario.