[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I have a nagging feeling there is going to be further shift south for Thursday between now and tomorrow morning . It means some places that we're expecting snow might miss out. On the positive side it means the cold is extended and we get another go when the next system comes in

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It's uncanny - we started the winter with a flow that was simply too close to a straight northerly to bring any convection to eastern areas and we are pretty much ending winter in the same way. Without a decent easterly component it is just cold and dry.

Even after the low pushes through - here we are again with a northerly.

Getting very close to the end of the season now. Once any excitement for Thurs/Fri passes over and we get a chance to look at the overall shape of the rest of March I will be getting ready to down tools and go find another hobby for the warm half of the year. Interesting but ultimately quite a frustrating season with plenty more to look at than in some seasons but without end product away from Scotland mostly. 

Thursday and Friday could make up for the frustration of this past winter in some places. I suppose it depends on your expectations. I, at this stage, will be just happy to see falling snow. Accumulations to any degree will be a bonus. I don't expect it to hang around long, so I am not disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I love ice days and settled snow hanging around, but that ship has sailed unfortunatey.  

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

you would think if we are still good come the 12z runs...then we are safe..running out of time for things too change too much

You would think not, but with snow you never know. I will really be excited if tomorrow mornings runs are the same as what we have now . The only tweak I would ask for is no mild blip at all!

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

 

Stained glass WINDOW.  Hahaha. So Father Jack's phrase is filtered out here! 

 

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

So this is the  place where I can type arrrrrrgh! stained glass window! Grrrr after seeing the latest GFS and UKMO runs for Thursday and Friday. Come on ECM don't  back them! 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

For the far south we have now decent agreement for a snow event on overnight Tuesday, the 12z GFS ensembles have near total agreement on the front being far enough north, a few actually end up drawing slightly milder air into the far south turning it back to rain for a brief time, though that is still a fairly small risk at this stage.

Sorry, my post was a bit imby, yeah it looks good for the very south of England on Tuesday. Going off the GFS The Thursday to Friday event looks like a repeat of 22 March 2013, Northern Ireland and Northern England gets plastered while the rest of us get rain, or a brief snow to rain event. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I expect a major downgrade on those Met Office warnings if this system on Thursday continues further North and doesn't sharpen up. A very brief spell of snow and then back to i

It still looks good for Northern Ireland, but not further south. I think catacol will be right there wont be settling snow for long except maybe for the very North of England and Scotland. At this stage  i would just be happy to see dinner plate size snow falling for a while.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Trouble for the unlucky spots, no denying that, and yes I'm talking the snow hit spots.

I for one would welcome that trouble and being that unlucky!! 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

56 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS op for day 10 looks like a proper Dumbo when compared with the ensemble mean 

  

Uppers not bad in either though.

 

Doesn’t look like this mild spell is gonna fly.

It's just a shame we don't see the coldest air up north make its way down towards us to maximise our chances for settling snow  later on in the month

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Bank that GFS run. Too bad it will all have changed by the next run. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I hope the GFS OP run has some support from its members. I bet it hasn't. It's a peach of a run from an imby perspective. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

11 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Cold air back in at day 9 with heights rising over Greenland.

 

I am not getting sucked in this time. The high looks a bit too far West again. I want to see a robust high over the center of Greenland or slightly east towards Iceland. Then I might get sucked in again. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Erm 90% of the country looks dry!

It's one set of runs, and as you admitted it could change. I still think there maybe be surprises next week in terms of who gets snow fall, but it does look like it will get milder towards next weekend that seems a fairly consistent trend across the models

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Really after a couple of runs and completely at loggerheads with the recent met update! 

No precipitation? There are several warnings in force for Sunday onwards..this place really does leave me scratching my head.

You need to bear in mind is  he posting from an imby perspective, I imagine. He is not going to see snow in his location based on these runs. I do agree that some places will see snow next week, but it looks quite likely most of us will be dry and then go milder  by the weekend. Its just a pity we could not have the Greenland High boxed in then we would not have to concern ourselves with these pesky systems. I had a feeling the first system would go too far south, but when they keep coming it's usually bad news. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The control shows what I think may happen longer term, a brief warm up for a day or so in around a week then a renewed push of cold,

Weak Atlantic heights perhaps linked to mjo signal 

I would say also impacts from the second warming might be a factor too if it happens.  The Mild blip might be due to the brief return of westerlies in the strat before the second warming. On the UKMO deep dive video the presenter suggests this cold spell is due to the warming a couple of weeks ago. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

12 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS det seems overly enthusiastic about multiple channel sliders and is a clear outlier against the pack.

Pretty clear the cold spell will be over by next weekend thanks to Greenland blocking easing & the Iberian high poking it's unwanted nose into things. However; plenty of snow potential just about everywhere before we get to that point.

I think the cold may hang on in Scotland with a renewed push of cold southwards  around the middle of March 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

30 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't think so the angle is all wrong. Starting to look very dry before the mild wins out 

Yes, but some snow before that happens. Any milder push will hopefully be brief too. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, Jacob Gamer said:

Would love 27

Yes, 27 would be fantastic. A proper direct hit with that. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

Was trawling through the thread for some GEM analysis but couldn't find any. FI looks great

Pity it's on the warm side of its ensembles (unsurprisingly) and only has minority support... but it isn't an outlier. 

That looks terrible, but hopefully if it comes to pass it's brief before another round of blocking.  Just out of curiosity what phase was the mjo in during the 2010 cold spell. Does anyone know?  I am just curious why that High never  became West based. Was there  a low in the right place to reinforce it? 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

20 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

ECM was king of the castle last night but tonight it is wrong? I would trust the ECM before GFS right now 

Yes, unfortunately given the GFS OP performance since its upgrade. Also when the ECM is showing a crud run for cold what's the betting it won't be an outlier. I just don't get this run though, if we are to see effects from the second warming, surely that high will want to go North West eventually? 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a different FI GFS output due mainly to the PV trying to move back nw .

The PV needs to hold to the ne if you want heights to hang on to the north.

Surely this would go against all background signals? Is this just the GFS throwing an inter run wobble? From an imby perspective the GFS would suit me, at least initially. The ideal would be for a band of slowing moving snow to develop, then eventually retreating back south ushering in a very cold Northerly

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

6 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Matt just to quickly say I hope you’re okay since the last time we cross paths as you were going through a tough time before Christmas as was I. 
I can’t believe such a bad set of circumstances.

as you know I lost mum end of November and a friend at the same time.

I then had a close friend commit suicide during the Christmas break.

just recently my sister diagnosed with most probable terminal cancer.

and another friend who I’ve been helping out for years with his laptop has terminal cancer in the lymph. 
 

doesn’t feel like I’ve been living in a real world if I’m honest.

but I hope you’re okay and things improved for you as I know you had a tough time. 

Jesus that's awful stuff to be going through. I am sorry. I don't mean to sound flippant but i hope this thread is providing some light relief, if that's possible at all.

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I've just read the blurb which says the cold weather alert system is for England only.

The Scots are well used to it. They don't need a warning! So it would seem based off the latest update there could be a North  to South split later on in March. That probably means milder weather in most of Ireland too, with the North of England and Scotland staying cold. Although it's  interesting they talk of colder weather likely heading south in late March. If that is the case, I hope it's extremely cold air. So this cold period goes out with gutso. Then Spring can commence! 

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I just hope we get a decent frontal snow event out of this upcoming cold spell. An all snow event with the heavy snow lasting 12 hours will do! 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

-10 air over swathes of the country.  Great run 

 

BFTP

It could be better-I want to see the - 16 upper air plunging down over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Then we could put to bed talk about  settling snow at any time of the day!