Bricriu
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Everything posted by Bricriu
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Yes. In future runs that low to the south west could be a spoiler for instance. I am going to try and contain my excitement for now .
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Let's have a repeat of the February 5th 1969 chart that was posted last night!
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As long as we don't see support suddenly grow in the ensembles for a less cold option in the next few days. As you say all it take is for one little things to go wrong in the broader scale picture for our cold spell to vanish. My worry would be a low to the south west not undercutting and then cutting off the cold air.
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It would be good to hear from the poster who mentioned his workplace gets briefing from contingency planners regarding cold outbreaks.
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As long as we don't see more of these popping up in the days ahead
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What temperature would you get at the surface if that made it to the South East of England without being modified?
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I wonder what the coldest uppers have ever been from a northerly.
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Dare I say reminiscent of late Februrary 2018. When that seem to count down seamlessly. Let's hope for no wobbles tomorrow
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Yes, a timely reminder. I remember the poster GP being stunned when a cold spell vanished from the models at only 48 hours out
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If I am not mistaken didn't the Glosea long range go for a mild winter overall? I think someone mentioned they failed to spot the Canadian warming? If this cold spell comes to pass, could it be in the main due to the Canadian warming weakening the strat vortex? Did the winter of 1963 have a Canadian warning?
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I want to see the purple making its way over us:). What would the day time temperatures be with this?
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No bother. Let's hope the UKMO is right!
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The long range forecast of our Met Service isn't the most inspiring to say the least. It mentions a cold high for week 1 of January, then the high sinks a bit to allow Atlantic incursions, then the high reassess itself but with above average temperatures for us.
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I think that's a bold call. We will be doing very well if we get a full week of snowy cold out of it. I'd love if you were right though .
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A bit disappointing from an imby perspective . I was hoping for ice days by this point, but if the high does go into Greenland a couple of days later that will be soon forgotten about
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Its a great chart from an imby perspective. I hope it comes to fruition! If it does then Kudos to the UKMO texted forecast which signposted this That's a shame you feel like that. You are a very knowledgeable poster. I hope you reconsider and come back.
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Sarcasm.I think your concerns are well grounded. We need to keep in mind that famous ECM chart. Cold spells can disappear all of sudden for us. Too bad it never seems to happen with mild spells
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The high looks slightly further east there compared to last night's run. Fine margins.
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I can only hope you're right, but there are many unforeseen way cold spells can be scuppered for us.
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Very frustrating if it does go west based. One obstacle overcome then another pops up How can you be sure it won't happen like that? Two GFS op runs have now shown the danger of a west based nao. All the concern about a sinking high then it looks like the high could go too far west in the end. Excellent trolling from the GFS
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This was the danger on last night's GFS op run.
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As long the high doesn't go too far to the North West in the end
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It would be great if the ECM followed this tonight.
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It would be a real kick in the teeth if that concern is allayed only for the high to drift too far north west in the end.
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Are you not concerned about the High drifting a bit too close to Canada on the GFS op?
