Bricriu

There is never a certainty(anything nailed on) when it comes to cold. It's looks likely,even without a major ssw, that a lot of Northern Europe is going colder in January due to the Canadian warming weakening the strat and making it more susceptible to further warmings, warmings that probably would have little impact if we had a strong vortex. We don't always need a major ssw to deliver a decent cold spell. I believe a poster who takes his name from one such spell was the result of a minor SSW. I am sure there were others too over the years

Yes,let's get the -28 upper air in during peak winter. No half measures as you say

If the EC46 is correct- which I have my doubts about- is this based on the MJO moving to phase 1 and some other background factors like mountain torque events?

Your post reminds me of a 3000 word Jigsaw, your two pieces away from completing the Jigsaw only to realise you can't find the two missing pieces- that's what it seems likes trying to get cold weather in these Isles. If it isn't the mjo underperforming, it's an up tick in solar activity or a shortwave in the wrong place. Oh did someone mention an easterly on the GFS after Christmas....

Yes,there must have been cold winter outbreak in the past where the mjo cycle was in unfavourable phase for high latitude blocking or even mid latitude blocking. Surely there are others factors involved?

As awesome as February and March 2018 was, just imagine if we had it during peak winter. With this in mind if we do get a SSW in January I hope we get a qtr response. It's interesting you mention the mjo phase at 2-5 preventing a high latitude block, so are you saying even with a ssw that leads to a split there won't be the background forcing to give us a high latitude block off the back of it, that the best we can hope for is a mid Atlantic high? If this is the case, I wonder is this what our own Met Service (Met Eireann) and the UKMO envisage happening?

Absolutely. Very unseasonal at the moment. Encouraging updates fron our own Met Service and the UKMO for January, if it's cold weather you want.

Sometimes I wish the GFS had only two runs a day. The next GFS run will likely be different again. I think the form horse is a seasonal Christmas for most with any snow confined to Scotland and perhaps high ground in the North of England.

My deepest sympathies to you on the passing of your dad. It's a lonely feeling. I lost mine nearly 4 years ago now and even now there is still days I get sad, especially during snow or thunderstorms, it might sound silly but i got my interest in weather from him and we both loved this kind of weather. What I will say is through the sadness thinking about the good memories we had helped alot. I hope it can be the same for you in your grieving. Your dad would want you to be happy in the future I hope you can be in time. Here to you getting experiencing a massive Snowstorm sometime in the new year!

I hope mattwolves is ok. You'd miss his optimism and humour as a counter balance at this time. Edit: Sorry. I didn't mean to post this three times

I think if we are to have any chance of a proper cold spell, we are going to be relying on a displaced vortex to Asia sometime in January. Tamara's post is insightful- the tiny bit I could understand that is- even with everything looking promising on the macro level it doesn't automatically mean we will have a cold spell arising out if it. Also something unexpected can happen so relying on any one driver, like the MJO, as a magic bullet to bring about a cold spell is foolhardy. I will try to remember that until the next cold chase at least:)

A disaster. It really feels like we could be here in mid January still looking for signs of a colder weather in the extended. I really hope met4forecast is incorrect about us having to wait till the next mjo cycle in February for cold . He has gone quiet since his last post.

Is a Euro high plaguing our winter what the glosea seasonal progged for the winter months ?

With all the chopping and changing, I hope the models don't converge on a halfway house solution by late this weekend The problem in this scenario is it will probably mean cold and wet rather cold and white for many on Christmas Eve, except for Scotland and high ground in the north.

You are trying not to get your hopes up. I wonder might we still get a wind storm over the Christmas period as others have alluded to. Personally I'd be down for a blizzard on Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day.

So you don't think it will work out in our favour is the impression I am getting. You are not bothered about Christmas cold,I was, but I'd get over it soon enough if January delivered an epic cold spell. With that in mind I hope I have misunderstood you.

From an imby perspective I'd bank this run from the GFS for the 23rd and 24th.Too bad it's just one run and the final outcome will probably result in cold rain for most at lower levels further north.

A cracking run, cyclonic cold to perhaps deep cold in the extended outlook. I really hope the GFS hasn't sobered up in the morning!

That will be enough for me if it happens. Then hopefully we get a sustained cold spell in the new year

Nice Dennis. Keep these kind of charts coming. I wonder what are the verification stats for the GFS this year? They led the way with the last cold spell,and it seems the ECM has now followed their output by moving the bulk of the pv east in fi. Now if the output could just change for the better with a straight line northerly for Christmas that would be nice

Yes, but it gives us a better chance of a sustained cold spell occurring than if there wasn't a split. If it did work out in our favour we'd have a cold spell in heart of winter too for a change. What we don't want to see blocking in the run up to any potential split as they could flip the pattern to zonal.

I would disagree slightly, there is a chance of a colder turn in the run up to Christmas, albeit a brief one. However in terms of sustained cold I an in agreement with you, there is no sign of it during Christmas week,unfortunately.

I think i have seen enough now to know the direction of travel up to Christmas. I know people will say more runs needed, but there is a consistent signal now for the high to move west before it sinks back into Europe bringing back milder air. Maybe the high will eventually move north west towards the end of December?

Because background signals do not guarantee a cold spell for us. They increase the chance of one if they play ball, but it seem going by the GFS and ECM the MJO won't .

So is a displacement looking more likely than a split? If the spv were displaced to Siberia, could we still eek out a cold spell from it?