Bricriu

We have to hope this is like the last cold spell with ECM hopefully playing catch up on subsequent runs.

Any chance of the Vortex moving over to Siberia as per the GFS run if the ECM run went further?

Your money is going with the ECM not doing the same. Regarding post 240 charts, didn't GFS charts beyond this range correctly pick up the last cold spell?

Across the models that has been the trend though. It's a bit disappointing how it just topples right in time for Christmas. I hope there would be some snow about beforehand at least.

Christ that's a dire outlook. How accurate was their winter forecast for last year?

The strength of the high is impressive, but it looks to me that the pattern is flatlining into a westerly flow. It's all a long way out, but the trend certainly seems to be for a high that meanders around instead of going North West. I am just hoping the ECM and GFS are at present under estimating the MJO signal and in a few days we will see the models respond accordingly with a high that goes North West instead of thinking about it and sinking to the south west instead

That's it. We had freezing Rain in 2009. It was bone dry in 2010.

The reason is because it has been nearly 20 years since I last experienced a white Christmas. I would normally be more optimistic, but given the current guidance it 's not look likely we will see a white Christmas. I appreciate that could change but then surely we would be seeing signs of it in the extended . All the indications so far are for a northern toppler that could deliver to some areas, but any cold is likely to be transient in that scenario. I will get over not having a white Christmas, if we get a proper cold spell during what's left of peak winter.

Well, that's the point no models are showing a push of heights into Greenland which was the hope given background drivers looked favourable, at least on some output Yes, it will be dry, but some of us were hoping for a bit more for the Christmas period but the chances of that happening are fading based on current output. Perhaps there is still time for it to change for the better, but we don't really see broad support for a proper cold spell in the extended outlook. Perhaps a northern toppler might deliver to some areas during Christmas week. Let's hope so anyway.

The wheels are coming off the Greenland express it seems. A northern toppler at best looks the most likely outcome now. Will we even get a decent cold spell to see out the year? The background drivers not playing ball it seems. Did someone mention a SSW in January...? On to the next chase!

I just wonder do the UKMO factor it into their forecasts? Could it be the other models don't see it being amplified enough to lead to a HLB. We have to hope it is as you say, and the ensembles will soon start showing support for a block that leads to cold weather.

Unfortunately that would tally with the UKMO idea of a sinking high. I just wonder is the MJO going to screw us over in the end.

Well it looks nailed on to be dry looking at the lastest output for after mid month. After three days of non stop rain and gloom, I am looking forward to some dry weather again. Cold and snow would be a bonus. Hopefully the UKMO and ECM will follow the GFS in future runs, but as a poster said cold rarely comes in sooner than anticipated, so it could be see a colder turn the far side of Christmas. At least we are in the game for a white Christmas. It must be 19 years since I last had one. Come on 2023 deliver one!

Yes,I suppose the post was a tad negative. Even if it proves to be correct , it doesn't really matter as it could be the appetiser before the main course in January. Also even the best winters in terms of cold and snow had milder periods.

Very disappointing the high collapses , that could be due to the MJO letting us down. Well I'll take that run if it means we have the chance of a White Christmas before all that happens.

Let's see if we get an encouraging update form the UKMO text forecast. Are those ECM clusters showing a sinking high an indication that the MJO forecast will be weak phase 7? Is it possible that one of the teleconnections could let us down? I just hope its a case of the ECM not going out far enough to show the high going north west. It would be very disappointing if it doesn't get there in time for Christmas.

The EC46 seems to change alot, but hopefully this time it's a case of the models will quickly change to a more favourable outlook to reflect what the EC46 is showing.

I don't think this high will be sticking around for weeks on end, either it will sink or go north. We hopefully will see the models playing catch up, but it might not be in time for Christmas.

If the speculation earlier on about the MJO proves to be correct, a mid latitude high might be the best we can hope for after mid month?

It could be true,because If we get an ssw in the first week or so of January, it could be three weeks before we see the effects from it in the Troposphere . I hope it's wrong, as I would prefer a cold spell during January rather than February.

If i am not mistaken, i seem to recall for the cold spell just gone their long range mentioned a slight chance of colder conditions a couple of weeks beforehand. So like you say it's a positive they have not dropped the idea from their text. They won't commit to a cold spell until they are absolutely sure.

That will just about do Dennis. Let's count it down:) I know this chart is well out of date now, but let's hope it is repeated in the days ahead. I am still hoping that something good can come during Christmas week courtesy of the MJO doing the right thing for cold fans.

I'd take a west based nao, provided we got a dumping of snow beforehand. With that set up there would surely be a polar low or two popping up to do just that. Let's hope this is the GFS sniffing out a new trend and the other models will follow it- just as we saw with this soon to be departed cold spell

I am really hoping for proper cold around Christmas week- it has been years since we had a white Christmas- courtesy of the mjo in phase 7 or 8. As other have said that is no guarantee of high latitude blocking. If it does deliver the last thing the we want is a northern Hemisphere pattern conducive to blocking being upended by a displaced polar vortex or a split that leads to a lobe of the vortex in the wrong place and we end up with mild south westerlies. From my limited understanding that is more likely with a displacement than a split, though. It is good that we are with a chance of an SSW in Janaury but i am certainly not pinning all my hopes on it delivering white gold for us given past fails . The MJO might not even deliver, which would be a real kick in the teeth given what we have currently seems to go against background drivers.

Again it depends on your focus, a Russian high rarely backs far enough west to halt the Atlantic, and as you say we are then stuck under stalled lows, however it could be a case of short term pain for long term gain- if we maintain the Ural high the model analysis might be very exciting during January. Hopefully the mjo in phase 7 will provide some good output well before that, though.