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Bricriu

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Everything posted by Bricriu

  1. Bricriu
    The high looks to be going a bit too close to Canada for my liking. A west based NAO?
  2. Bricriu
    Are you thinking a scandi high is going to develop on the GFS? It's disappointing it sinks, but if it's only a brief delay then it doesn't really matter.
  3. Bricriu
    Yup. It's fantastic to have a new years day whereby we are potentially on the cusp of a decent to possibly epic cold spell in the heart of winter for once. It's a rare thing these days
  4. Bricriu
    Let's hope so, as the longer it sustains the more likely others will get in on the action too. If we manage to get a robust high into Greenland, a Northerly would come surely come at some point
  5. Bricriu
    I might have to toast the ECM output tonight. Let's hope it's not an outlier.
  6. Bricriu
    No. Bank it! We would be in polar low territory there surely. If only it would come to pass!
  7. Bricriu
    If the GEM is correct then it certainly tallies with the UKMO text forecast where the interest was always going into the second week of January.
  8. Bricriu
    Your posts are always amusing. It's a testament to your character you can still be cheerful and provide a laugh for us at all at this difficult time for you. I don't have to call that helpline due to your post. Onwards to a snowy January that does not relent till some time in March!
  9. Bricriu
    Let's have a GFS pub run to match the night that's in it!
  10. Bricriu
    I will take that , if only to get a break from the rain. Hopefully it's just a holding pattern like you say.
  11. Bricriu
    The ECM run tonight maybe telling. If we see it move towards the GFS then I suspect the UKMO will change in subsequent runs. Even if this happen it's not game over, however if we are still chasing day 8 and 9 chart by the second week of January then it most likely is as without a Major SSW I feel we are on borrowed time for a cold spell.
  12. Bricriu
    So if we had got the major split the chances of a cold spell lasting longer would have been greater. It seems Mike Poole and you are in agreement on that. No cold spell will hang around forever anyway. If we manage to get two or three snowy days out of this I'll be happy.
  13. Bricriu
    It would fit in with the UKMO outlook. Cold and dry at first, with the chance of snow increasing going into the second week of January
  14. Bricriu
    The potential cold spell doesn't really get going till after the first week of January,though. So that's already eaten up sometime. We may get a three to four day cold spell into the second week of January but I am not seeing a prolonged and severe cold spell happening given the modelling of the vortex. We haven't see any charts build a robust high latitude block. Any blocking looks tentative to me and at risk of sinking in over us.
  15. Bricriu
    Yes, the latest NAO index update would suggest nothing prolonged or severely cold unfortunately. It may well be the recent GFS OP runs are correct. A weakened and stretched vortex probably isn't enough, as any residual energy left over Greenland can be enough to scupper a cold spell. At the very least I hope we get a respite from the rain for a few days.
  16. Bricriu
    Always the way. The mild hardly ever gets delayed.
  17. Bricriu
    We could get faux cold if the Azores high pushes in after a while. I obviously want snow as much as the next guy but we know if there is a way for it to go pear shaped for us it usually does.
  18. Bricriu
    At the very least it looks like it will become cold and dry- after all the rain of late I will take that. We have floods in places that usually don't flood at the moment
  19. Bricriu
    I beg to differ,maybe not down in Cork with you, but up here there has been rain nearly every day of late.
  20. Bricriu
    The GFS op run is what I would expect to see due to the major SSW being a bust. We will have a weakened Strat vortex and weaker zonal winds, but it looks like too much residual energy in the wrong place to me. I hope I am wrong but I am getting a feeling this will end up just like the letdown in the run up to Christmas.
  21. Bricriu
    Have we lost the Ural High in fi? That could be a disaster going forward. I think the latest model runs could end up in major disappointment if residual energy is still left over Greenland. If that's the case any ridging high may collapse on top of us. Well at least it would be cold and dry in that scenario.
  22. Bricriu
    At least the heights seem to be going from Iberia on this run. Maybe further on the cold will flood south.
  23. Bricriu
    We need sufficient downwelling, otherwise I think any ridging northwards will be temporary before the Altantic takes over again. Are we going to be in a typical Nino situation where we have to wait till February for proper blocking. It's a kick in the teeth if we do after all the hope of a decent cold spell in January. I will take a cold spell at any time,but one during peak winter would be fantastic.
  24. Bricriu
    We can still get a cold spell without the reversal, but I have to say some of the op runs are giving me a feeling of de Ja vu with the Iberian High being the villain of the piece yet again. It will be extremely disappointing if we end up with another late winter cold spell when the prospect of a peak winter cold spell was on the table .
  25. Bricriu
    I think also December 2000. A minor warming could still lead to a major one later on in any case. At least with a minor warming there is potential for furthering warming going into the strat Whatever happens we don't want to see you for the next two months.
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