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Bricriu

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  1. Bricriu
    The GFS model that has some snow about next week. The ECM looks largely dry but we do get a snow to rain event. I hope that would change to an all snow event if the milder air is kept further south, but it's fine margins as always. Also if we get snow at night it should stick. We need lots of cloud cover too during the day. It's just a great pity this was not happening 4 weeks ago so we would not have to worry about melting snow.
  2. Bricriu
    A non technical explanation. For me a polar low is what used to give widespread heavy snow for a few hours. They would develop some where between Iceland and Norway, then push down over us. I am thinking there must have been one in 2010, but not sure if there was. It would be nice to get a visit from an old friend in this cold spell.
  3. Bricriu
    What about the recent second warming. How do you think that will impact things?
  4. Bricriu
    I could from an imby perspective An Atlantic attack that fails and leads to a foot and a half of snow when all is said and done
  5. Bricriu
    It would be nice if that Arctic high did us a favour for once in forcing the coldest uppers down on top of it. Then we could forget about the orange globe ruining things for a bit.
  6. Bricriu
    Where do you think the boundary would be in that set up? Or is it too hard to know at this stage?
  7. Bricriu
    For what it's worth it feels chilly here already under the cloud cover. So if we get lots of cloud cover over the snow fields next week temperatures will be quite low. Exactly. Failing that, if there is a breakdown at least let it go out with a bang- a snowstorm that will be talked about for years to come.
  8. Bricriu
    I was about to say maybe it's because we are dealing with a displacement instead of a split, but then we had a textbook split in 2018 and still the cold spell was shortlived. So the excuse that we need a piece of Vortex on the Canadian side to give the block a boost might not be the full story. Whether the tpv goes too far east or goes back west it amounts to an end of the cold spell. It's frustrating how delicate a balance it is for us to get cold in and then for it to last.
  9. Bricriu
    But it seems to be a trend across most of the models to break down the block. The chances are the ECM will show something smiliar. I hope not!
  10. Bricriu
    According to the Met Office deep dive video they think this is the result of the first warming two weeks ago. So if that the case, then maybe we will get another round of blocking in another two weeks from the recent warming. If it is going to be a short lived cold spell it's somewhat disappointing given we have had the ssw and mjo phases conducive to blocking. Unless one is somehow working against the other? Could that be possible?
  11. Bricriu
    The UKMO video forecasts upgrades the cold in terms of longetivity then the model downgrades it. Poor runs. We have to hope the ECM stick to its guns.
  12. Bricriu
    There is always the possibility that the block is underestimated or that enough cold air gets in for at least a snowy breakdown for some. Either way I don't think we will be having a March dominated by spring warmth. I think there will be another cold push at some point as there was in March 2018.
  13. Bricriu
    I thought the ECM would deliver some to us, but even on the ECM England gets much more. It is looking like a short - lived cold spell anyway. Maybe we will get another crack at it after mid month.
  14. Bricriu
    I just hope the ECM does not move towards the GFS. Snow for many if it comes off!!
  15. Bricriu
    So was April 1997 notably cold? Or is he suggesting that we are going to end up with a very warm March as was the case in 1997?
  16. Bricriu
    The later stages of the ECM would seem to tally with the EC46. If it does get milder and unsettled, hopefully there will be another push of cold air in around 2 weeks, hopefully with even colder uppers to counter the strengthening sun. I would love a lengthy cold spell, but if the ECM delivers a two to three days snow spell next week with snow settling i will take it.
  17. Bricriu
    Would there be the possibility of a polar low within that unstable flow? . I imagine the thickness level would be low enough for one
  18. Bricriu
    I hope we can get some snow next week.
  19. Bricriu
    Before the next round of cold. I would normally agree, but seeing heavy snow fall in London on the 17th March six years ago was some sight. I remember telling people the day before it was going to snow, they all thought I was daft because it was fairly mild and pleasant on the 16th.
  20. Bricriu
    That must be what the UKMO update was about. It's a pity we can't get the really cold uppers in before any Atlantic approach, but hopefully some places would still see snow in this scenario.
  21. Bricriu
    You should have stayed in the UK:)
  22. Bricriu
    If I may ask where is the poster chino these days. I thought he would be all over this SSW. Also where is Nick Sussex? It's really encouraging the ECM op and Control are in sync, allied with the UKMO update, it certainly would give you a bit more confidence that the GFS is barking up the wrong tree here.
  23. Bricriu
    If it does go west based in the end, hopefully with cold air entrenched, we get the mother of all snowy breakdowns- something that makes storm Emma look minor!
  24. Bricriu
    I would agree, it seems the perfect imprint on the trop of the most recent warming in the Strat. Which also shows its a quick qtr. Let's hope this run has broad support and we can count it down now.
  25. Bricriu
    What seems clear from their update is we are unlikely to get a robust Greenland high and a direct hit for very cold uppers to make their way here. Which likely means cold rain for many rather than snow due to uppers being too marginal for the time of year. Some areas may get lucky, however, but I feel many will have at best slushy stuff or just cold rain
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