Bricriu

Yes, exactly, the time to fret is if the majority of ensembles show a sinking high. I am still of the view that it will be closer to the second week of March before the fallout from the SSW will be seen in the trop. This initial attempt might be due to the mjo rather than the SSW?

I would love to get into that kind of trouble! I have never experienced a blizzard at home before . As you say hopefully people would heed the warnings if that ever came to pass. Regarding the BBC weather outlook posted earlier, all it will take to change that outlook into something promising is a good ECM run tonight and tomorrow . Which I would not bet against.

Assuming it does not sink, a day or two further on it will be very wintry. I am not convinced at all it would sink looking at that chart. The PV is on the move, which should allow the high to go to the North West

What's the betting when the GFS shows it going pear shaped it will turn out to be right Yes, over the years GFS has been decent, but this winter there is no disguising that it has been woeful since its upgrade. Regarding the failed easterly, the GFS might have got close to the overall pattern, but when it was showing a snowy cold easterly and took it away, naturally people's perception will be that it got things wrong . That's the problem miniscule changes can be the difference between a bitter cold easterly and a cold surface high in our neck of the woods.

The problem is the GFS op when it last showed an easterly was barking up the wrong tree. This time you might say it's more feasible given events in the strat but the more accurate models this winter are not following, it at least not yet anyway. So it's only natural people would be sceptical. If the GFS op has broad support from its own members then that might be a different story.

They are not getting delayed. It has been well flagged that any noteworthy cold due to the SSW is probably unlikely till the 2nd week of March. The recent EC46 suggested as late as week 3. The previous UKMO update did not have anything really cold before Mid March

I agree it's highly unlikely we will see a repeat of 2018 and even less so of something more extreme than that. However I thought the 2nd warming might bring about sufficient downelling to increase of our chances of a noteworthy cold spell around mid March onwards.

Yes. Yes. If the - 20 upper air temps made their way here. How much would they be modified by. What temperatures could we expect to see at the surface in this scenario I think he meant record cold for the time of year, but, yes,that is far from certain. We may just end up with seasonal cold. We had far more certainty back in 2018 of severe cold once the models got a handle on the SSW. I think this year things are not as so clear cut, due to this being a displacement and with the strat and trop disconnected complicating matters further.

You seem to be siding with the previous UKMO update of any cold weather being towards the north. By North, do you mean a line well north of Birmingham?

It could be better- I want to see the purple over us! In that scenario what temperature would we get at the surface. Would there be less modification of the upper air temps due to colder sea temps?

Haha that did not last long. I wonder did they read this thread then decided to change it for the better. But that update is hard to take seriously now

I kinda disagree with this. Glosea is probably the best at handling things in the strat. I really doubt Exeter is playing catch up. Given all the media attention about the SSW, they likely held off on writing the update till their in house model factored in the likely consequences post SSW for the troposphere. The problem seems be that for once we need the trop and strat to connect. It seems to be that it has had problems doing so all winter. There are suggestions the second warming may cause them to finally connect which may lead to severe cold in late March.

Is the problem, assuming the UKMO long range is correct, the disconnect between the strat and trop working against the downwelling. Is this why we seem to be relying on the 2nd warming for that to happen. Maybe this explains why we don't see the EC46 block till week 3.

Yeah that's the way it seems alright. Atlantic systems will be pushed south but the air they are meeting won't be cold enough for snow. Very disappointing update. Perhaps the cold will come by the end of March, but that is a little late even for me. Well, unless we get a history making Snowstorm, then I will take it!

If the UKMO long range is to believed this SSW is not going to deliver, at least not before the 18th of March anyway. A very poor update. You would think at this stage Glosea has factored in the fallout of the SSW in its output for March.

Well that's a really crappy update. It look like Glosea doesn't see this SSW delivering for us.

There was two snow storms in April during the 20th century that had, according to accounts of the events, snow on the ground for a few days.

I will throw in the towel if the ECM is still finding a way to prevent cold reaching us by the second week of March. In the mean time due to the mjo declining in its current phase no high will be able to make to the North West.

If only we could tap into that purple blob to the north, of course it would modify a bit by the time it reached us, but the uppers would still be cold enough to deliver the goods!

Maybe Glosea is seeing something the others aren't then. Given the tendencies of high pressure to sit over us or just to the south, it could well be the mjo will not lead to a high latitude block due to the strength of the pv, unless there is a quick downwell to in effect double team the trop pv into submission . So yeah we would be foolish to discount this Met Office update.

By later into March do you mean the second week? If the mjo does cod us as per the ecm, then that seems fairly plausible that we will have to wait 15 - 20 days after the reversal for anything really wintry. The update might be Influenced by last night ec 46 too which shows things only really kicking off by the 2nd or 3rd week of March.

So the wave 2 second warming could lead to the vortex splitting? Will the daughter vortices move to the wrong place though?

It has been well flagged that anything of interest in terms of cold weather is not going to happen- if it happens at all - till the end of the month at the earliest.

It's just a pity that it's not a split being shown. With the MJO being favourable for blocking we could have been on to something special. By special I mean something akin to March 2013 or 2018.

If it's something exceptional like March 2013 or 2018 I will take it.