Bricriu

There is a huge Scandinavian high in far FI, but then you say the jet is too strong to allow heights to build into Scandinavia?

The problem is at this time of year milder rarely means dry. Although If the Met extended is right it could be unsettled further north but maybe drier in the south. Also if the 10 day outlook is accurate, the MJO wont be enough this time to produce a Scandi High. Speaking of a Scandi High, I would love if the GFS a couple of nights ago was doing what it has done in the past, detecting something, only to drop it in subsequent runs, then go with it again in future runs. Was it the GFS that initially suggested this colder turn next weekend?

This is what the UK Met Office 10 day outlook was showing yesterday. A cold plunge for a few days, then the high topples in over the UK. Some of the other models are going for this now.

So would - 20 uppers be about the coldest the UK could ever get no matter how severely cold Siberia is?

Personally I would love to see - 20 uppers reaching the UK. Did this happen before back in January 1987?

If that comes off snow fans on the East Coast of Ireland might be sickened and looking on in envy, as it looks to me like that the cold air won't reach Ireland. It has a whiff of something that happened about a decade ago in February. Anyway given how abysmal the GFS has been lately I doubt it will happen. I would love if it did, though, as i will be in London that week.

Think a displaced high is about the best we can do out of this. The high will probably nudge in over us eventually, but hopefully some places will have seen snow before this happens.

Yes i am aware of that. I was joking that it had this spot on as it's what most people here want to see. I think while we wont get an easterly, some places could see snow late next week if the GEM and ECM hold firm.

I think the people behind the GFS have heeded the criticism on here and from the pros, so what we are seeing tonight in the output is the GFS finally upping its game. We can but dream....

It has not been definitely proven, but is thought that sun spot activity can scupper cold spells by giving oomph to the jetstream. Glacier Point cited it as the likely reason for cold spells that went awry in the past.

It's groundhog day with the Lower heights to the North West the heights just get flattened and cut off the colder air. I see there has been an uptick in Sun Spot activity also.

Hard to see it getting any further north. I Hope it does not sink back towards the Azores. There is just too much energy around Greenland. Hopefully we can get a brief colder snap with snow not confined to the hills of Scotland out of this.

Can we have confidence in the GFS strat output considering how poor its output has been for the troposphere.? Although the Exeter update is a concern, it must be that Glosea is seeing no signs of a SSW. Is it possible if this is being led by the trop that it might not pick up on a possible SSW yet? I guess as others have said the next ec46 may reveal a lot.

What? I thought from her post a few days ago it would be mid February before the atmosphere would be favourable for blocking again??? If i am not mistaken she mentioned the Met Office in Portugal was going for below average rainfall for the rest of January, which would indicate Higher pressure there.

There definitely seems to be a consensus for the Azores High to be displaced out into the Atlantic on most of the models. I think what is to be decided is whether we just get a transient pm airflow or something colder and perhaps more sustained. You would like to think that ECM day 10 chart would go on to show something similar as the GFS by the 19th.

We will no doubt at some point, but they are rare these days.

I can't see the GFS being right because we just don't get proper northerlies anymore. Then there is its poor performance since the upgrade to consider as well.

It's nice to see alright, but it's hard to get excited about it now with the news about a possible uptick in Solar Activity, which could stop any potential cold spell as has happened in the past.

Indeed it did. That February was cold and snowy if I am not mistaken. Also March too. Or was it March 2013 that was exceptionally cold?

So you think an increase in Solar activity will power up the jetstream and possibly scupper any colder turn? Has the link even been proven? I know Glacier Point back in 2012 cited a sudden uptick in solar activity for a cold spell vanishing from the models within 72 hours. I think it was back in December 2012.

if I understand the strat experts on here correctly, this is very much being led by the trop and is contingent on maintaining a Ural high pressure and an Aleutian low going forward.

I suppose parts of England badly need it. We, over here, don't!

Does Ian Ferguson still post here? Surely he would know, but maybe he would not be in a position to share it. I guess if we don't see the UKMO long range change for the better in the next couple of weeks, we will have a good idea that Glosea is not seeing one happening.

I agree completely. It's rained most days where I live since the cold spell. Although looking at that chart I can't see it lasting long, but even a temporary respite would be welcome.

I hope so. It won't snow, but at least we might get some frost and fog at night