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Bricriu

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Everything posted by Bricriu

  1. Bricriu
    If the zonal winds do not reverse at 10 hpa, is it still possible we could get a cold spell out of it? . I keep being reminded of February 1991, which I am told was just short of being a SSW
  2. Bricriu
    So what would that likely mean for us if it happened?
  3. Bricriu
    The deep rime frost here over several days made it look like snow. So I got to enjoy the same crunching sound underfoot while walking. I am hopeful this time there will be some snow.
  4. Bricriu
    Yes that's the safe best for sure. If this is the case at least we will have a bit of respite from the rain for a while before normal service from the Atlantic is resumed.
  5. Bricriu
    I think what he meant was that the high sitting over us would be short - lived before then moving either northwest or North East to bring us even colder air and snow.
  6. Bricriu
    It would seem that Met Office video forecast last week was bang on the money, a high over the UK. Will it move to a favourable position in time ? I fear once we lose the lag effect of the mjo we could return to a positive nao, unless events in the strat come to the rescue but some of the commentary here makes that seem unlikely. Perhaps the Glosea model was seeing it panning out this way all along. It would explain the omission of any reference to blocking in the long range forecast.
  7. Bricriu
    Are you saying a reversal could spoil an emerging favourable pattern for cold in the troposphere?
  8. Bricriu
    That is a concern. You would think at this stage there would be some reference to the possibility of blocking in the long range update if Glosea was seeing it as likely.
  9. Bricriu
    The halt to the atmospheric river does not seem to be helping at all in this chart. I thought the slowing down of the Pacific jet would encourage the Eastern High to move westwards and allow the Vortex to lift out of Greenland towards Canada. Maybe it will happen further on, but based on that chart it looks like the pattern will flatten out with all the energy over Greenland and the Azores high in its usual position.
  10. Bricriu
    Ha. Yes I am a generous person. I have my breaking point though and the very heavy rain tonight is it! An Easterly would be very good, cold and dry with clear skies for us.
  11. Bricriu
    Could still be cold under a high, if there is sufficient snow cover in some places I hope you're right blizzard81. I agree about the incessant rain- it had rained here nearly every day since the cold spell in December. So some respite from that rain would be most welcome.
  12. Bricriu
    Are they sitting on the fence, or is it their in house model does not forsee an North Easterly or Easterly influence by then. You would think if there was a strong signal for it they would at least make some reference to it by now.
  13. Bricriu
    It's blowing up like a balloon, only to eventually be burst, hopefully
  14. Bricriu
    Looks great. Plenty of little features coming down in the flow. Hopefully no warm sectors will spoil it.
  15. Bricriu
    The wet bulb temperatures look on the right side for snow in Ireland and Scotland from Monday. However not so good for much of England. If I am not mistaken a wet bulb temperature of - 1 should be enough for it to snow?
  16. Bricriu
    Probably not down south, but further north and west there could be snow cover.
  17. Bricriu
    Still if there is good snow cover, the surface temps should be suppressed at this time of year under a high, even if the upper temps are warmer. So it may actually stay cold.
  18. Bricriu
    I don't think they are. The Toppler has been well flagged. It was just a question of could we prolong the cold unstable airflow for a day or two more. It does not look like it now. Hopefully the high over us will go on to link up with the Russian / Scandi high and be positioned just far enough north to push very cold air our way towards the end of January.
  19. Bricriu
    A very poor update. Can we blame it on Sunspots or the Vortex just getting displaced instead of a proper split taking place. You have brains to burn. You will be well able to pursue your passion at University!
  20. Bricriu
    It does seem to be the theme of this winter so far, despite promising signs the really snowy cold air always eludes us. Maybe that will change late January into February! Still some of us might see some snow next week before the warm up. Having not seen a flake of snow so far this winter that will do me.
  21. Bricriu
    Let's see where it is at 240 hours. If it's not following a similar route to the GFS then you maybe right
  22. Bricriu
    Indeed. It would be great. Who would have thought a week ago we would be seeing such output across the models. It just goes to show no matter how crud the charts are, things can change for the better suddenly .
  23. Bricriu
    Would you be concerned that a lobe of Vortex could end up in the wrong place-over Greenland- in this scenario?
  24. Bricriu
    I would take it too. Some people will complain due to the stronger sun but with proper cold the snow will settle and stay. Late February 2018 in London was proof of that for me.
  25. Bricriu
    Maybe it might lead to a repeat of events that inspired your username. If I am not mistaken there was not a techincal SSW either prior to the cold outbreak?
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