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Bricriu

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Everything posted by Bricriu

  1. Bricriu
    It has climbed down from a beast from the east scenario, but not the overall pattern, minor changes as we see now can be the different between snowy nirvana and just a chilly surface. It's very frustrating, but then if we were guaranteed siberian freezes regularly this forum might not be as active as it is.
  2. Bricriu
    I would love the next two GFS runs to defy expectations but I can't see it. It does seem like the phantom Greenland high episode all over again. I think we are going to have wait till March for deep cold. We could have a March similar to 2013.
  3. Bricriu
    It seems too good to be true without cross model support. Are the GFS strat charts still showing warmings in late February? Sorry. I see now feb1991blizzard spoke about this earlier.
  4. Bricriu
    The dreaded halfway house, which probably is pants for snowy cold.
  5. Bricriu
    Will the ECM break hearts this evening? Or will it be a halfway house solution?
  6. Bricriu
    Are you sure January Snowstorm. Who was it that first picked up the signal for a Scandi High with no support from the Ensembles. If the GFS is correct it will deserves Kudos for doing so. The fact the UKMO long range is even mentioning a chance of colder weather from the east is a significant change from what they were saying last week.
  7. Bricriu
    The only crumb of comfort i have with this update is they were fairly bullish about a returned to unsettled conditions by early February this time last week. I am not saying we will get a a bitter cold easterly, but who knows what they might be saying this time next week.
  8. Bricriu
    It will be a spectacular win for the GFS op if it is right against the Ensembles. The GFS will be forgiven for all its past mistakes this winter.
  9. Bricriu
    A lot of pros will be scratching their heads if it does come off - it will be like that WTF moment with Ian(I forget his surname) several years ago.
  10. Bricriu
    The Holy grail would be if the Pacific High could connect with the high heading North West to completely split the vortex . Of course it won't happen. Is the GFS detecting something the other models will catch on to soon. That must be the hope now. I guess the ECM tonight might shed some light on all this. By the way when is the next ec46 update?
  11. Bricriu
    Maybe that GFS run was not so outlandish after all? . Is it possible that it has taken the models more time than was thought to see the effects in the Trop' of the Zonal Winds weakening?
  12. Bricriu
    Has it ever happened before that an output with almost zero support turned out to be right? It does seem like the GFS has hit the Sherry early!
  13. Bricriu
    So if they do couple, will this lead to a reinforcing of the mobile pattern in the trop?
  14. Bricriu
    I think it's a bust for positive impacts from the weakening of zonal winds, unless wave 2 warming starts showing up to kill off the pv. With a strong TPV will the mjo going to phase 6 or 7 be enough to produce a block in a favourable position? That's probably our only chance for a snowy outlook more widely, but we could well get further polar maritime shots over the next month if the jet plays ball.
  15. Bricriu
    Yes, it looks windy to the north west around the 5th of February. A couple of GFS runs have now shown this.
  16. Bricriu
    Looking forward to ridiculous warmth at this time of year is like looking for ridiculous cold in June - a waste of seasons!
  17. Bricriu
    Hopefully it's akin to a baloon ready to pop. I was pessimistic somewhat about it all, but if a senior UKMO employee is hinting at something about a SSW,maybe he has seen something on the Glosea model to arouse his interest.
  18. Bricriu
    That would be like what happened a few years back after a SSW. Low after low came our way from the north west, while the cold air was just out of reach over the continent. It was a real sickener.
  19. Bricriu
    I would much prefer snow in the heart of winter too. As you say a cold spell in the latter stages of February just is not the same, unless it's something exceptional. However with a displacement ,if things do fall in our favour, we are unlikely to get something exceptional and it will probably be briefer too. Having said all that i won't say no to snow if we do get it towards Mid February
  20. Bricriu
    I had resigned myself to this after the bullish update from the UKMO. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the next day or so, we'll have to wait till mid February. I am still hopeful the return to westerlies is part of the ongoing events in the strat.
  21. Bricriu
    I hope this is a case of the GFS sniffing out a trend like blizzard 81 mentioned about the current cold spell, but we all know that's probably not the case. If it is I might have to extend my stay in London. Ha.
  22. Bricriu
    I thought this was next to impossible- At the earliest we'd have to wait a week. Also didn't someone mention earlier that a downwelling wave might take 3 to 4 week to show up in the Trop '?
  23. Bricriu
    Well, yes, I am hoping so. I would be more confident if EC46 and the UKMO were on board. I hope its not the case that Glosea and the ECM see this as a bust for us due to no wave 2 warming. Still the post earlier today by cold winter nights underscores that we can get cold spells without a technical ssw. The decrease in zonal winds might just be enough this time.
  24. Bricriu
    The high will likely sink. We just have to hope before that happens the high goes west enough so we can get a brief Northerly or polar maritime plunge. With that chart i can see why there is some talk of a return to westerlies and a mobile pattern. I hope I am wrong.
  25. Bricriu
    It might not last long. As was said previously with a flushing down of westerlies we could have to deal with a flatter period for a bit. The GEM chart yesterday is what we might expect to see a bit later on in February.
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