Bricriu

I certainly hope that is the case, but I would not be confident at this stage

I suppose imbyness comes into it, i take from that there will be frontal systems that likely bring rain to most of Ireland, parts of England And Wales , with snow likely over Northern areas of England and into Scotland.

Pity that low won't go under. It might mean the cold is prolonged and more areas get snow.

Let's hope the ECM backs the UKMO, otherwise we know that there will be a back track from the UKMO.

Are we satisfied the final warming- not the offical final warming, but the last warming in this series has been factored into the output? Is it possible that we could see further changes(for the better) to come over the next two or three days due to the warming?

The SSW fanatics? I think you mean those who taken a keen interest in the strat and are knowledgeable about it. Those posters were suggesting the 2nd week of March from what i read. Anything earlier was likely linked to the MJO. The SSW might lead to sod all, but at this time frame we can't be certain of that given there is a further sharp warming to come this weekend. If by late next week we are still seeing similar charts then i will agree this SSW was a fail. We all know it gets more difficult to have snow on the ground further on into March but it can happen as some control runs have shown. If something like that verifies the new season can wait.

See you around the 10th or 11th March ,then, when the -15 uppers are enroaching:)

I think you are right. There is no way that low can barrel eastwards from there. If it does, I am sorry, but, I will be messing up the mods nicely folded towels again

I would be dismissing the GFS run if it were not for the UKMO update. A big ECM tonight you feel. Don't we always say that!

I recall a while back the thinking was the mjo and ssw could work in tandem to bring about a high latitude block, now it seems the opposite has happened- one has inhibited the other

Do the zonal winds reverse at 10hpa again? If not I fear we are stuck with this limpet high. Also I get the feeling there is some background factor that may work against a high latitude block as the pattern for the last six weeks has been a stationary high. If this one somehow persists into the Summer it's going to be a big problem for some parts of the UK. Maybe the second warming will force a change but I am less confident we will see deep cold now in March

It would not be for long, but ECM day 10 charts are for the bin anyway

The GFS strat forecast is disappointing. I though that reversal of the winds at 10 hpa would be inevitable after the second warming, but there are no signs currently of that happening. I have a feeling that without this the limpet high will just meander about instead of building properly into Greenland. I have lost count of the promising 10 day ECM charts only for the model to find away to prevent the cold coming here. It has been remarkably consistent all winter in that regard. So i am dubious of that 10 day chart to say the least.

I am not going to panic just yet. If we are still seeing mean charts showing a high anchored too near to the UK by this time next week, then maybe we can say that this SSW will fail to deliver proper cold our way. As by this time next week the models should have a good handle on the second warming in the strat and its likely impacts. However at the moment I am still confident by the second week of March onwards we will see a Greenland high.

That is some contrast between North and South on the 6th. Hard to believe this chart will come off as is! I would like this to come to fruition if it led to a low stalling across parts of Ireland and England resulting in a two day blizzard before moving back south or south west. That way Scotland and the North East of England might get snow showers. Much of England, Wales and Ireland could have heavy frontal snow, and finally as the low pushes back south, colder air from the North or North East makes it way down south again.

It's funny because the GFS is usually the one to overplay the strength of lows. Has the GFS OP finally found its feet or is this a continuation of its woeful performance since the upgrade? I hope its the latter, but when its showing a bad outcome it would be sods law that things turn out that way.

Maybe for you it is, but not for me! I would love to see another March similar to 2013. Although to be fair I get where you are coming from. 16 c in January would not appeal to me, but it would probably appeal some to others. I just hope we if we do get a northerly plunge that the conditions are ripe for a Polar Low to form at some stage. It has been too long since I experienced one.

I think what we can say is that if we do miss out initially there will be further opportunities after that. I think this could be similar to 2013 in terms of the potential for below average temperatures at times well in to April. Personally I hope for well below average over the next few weeks!

I assume you are talking about the movement of the polar vortex over to Asia. This should allow the high to go North soon after.

The EC46 did suggest it would be a slow process to a Greenland high, and it seems to rule out the first week of March for anything cold. If we are still seeing charts like this a week from now that will be a concern. As the models should have a handle on the second warming by that stage. At the moment this ECM does not concern me because the signs from mid range tools all point to the second week of March onwards for anything interesting.

Let's hope we can get this to count down now with no more wobbles.

Until the end of the GFS Run, then you will be back for the ECM Run. Haha. An encouraging update from the UKMO long range. I wish it was sooner but it looks like we are relying on the second warming to knock the stuffing out of the vortex and for the effects of this to work its way down to the trop. If we get lucky severe cold could be dumped on top of us by Mid March. The ec46 has a strong signal for a Greenland high around the middle of March. The UKMO is probably influenced by this and what its own model is seeing.

The Vortex is coming down on top of us! Bank!!

I could be totally wrong but i get the feeling if the high retrogressed too quickly we would be more likely to get a west based NAO. I think we are going to have to wait till the second week of March. If we do end up getting a direct hit we can overcome the solar obstacle. Ideally we would have heavy snow then it just stays cloudy a lot of the time. By the way where is the poster Kasim these days?

So it might be similar to 2018 in that regard. It will be interesting to see if we do get a west based NAO will there be a renewed push of colder air further on in the month as there was back then too. There is also a possibilty of a snowy breakdown for some if a west based NAO develops.