Bricriu

I have a nagging feeling there is going to be further shift south for Thursday between now and tomorrow morning . It means some places that we're expecting snow might miss out. On the positive side it means the cold is extended and we get another go when the next system comes in

Thursday and Friday could make up for the frustration of this past winter in some places. I suppose it depends on your expectations. I, at this stage, will be just happy to see falling snow. Accumulations to any degree will be a bonus. I don't expect it to hang around long, so I am not disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I love ice days and settled snow hanging around, but that ship has sailed unfortunatey.

You would think not, but with snow you never know. I will really be excited if tomorrow mornings runs are the same as what we have now . The only tweak I would ask for is no mild blip at all!

Stained glass WINDOW. Hahaha. So Father Jack's phrase is filtered out here!

So this is the place where I can type arrrrrrgh! stained glass window! Grrrr after seeing the latest GFS and UKMO runs for Thursday and Friday. Come on ECM don't back them!

Sorry, my post was a bit imby, yeah it looks good for the very south of England on Tuesday. Going off the GFS The Thursday to Friday event looks like a repeat of 22 March 2013, Northern Ireland and Northern England gets plastered while the rest of us get rain, or a brief snow to rain event.

It still looks good for Northern Ireland, but not further south. I think catacol will be right there wont be settling snow for long except maybe for the very North of England and Scotland. At this stage i would just be happy to see dinner plate size snow falling for a while.

I for one would welcome that trouble and being that unlucky!!

It's just a shame we don't see the coldest air up north make its way down towards us to maximise our chances for settling snow later on in the month

Bank that GFS run. Too bad it will all have changed by the next run.

I hope the GFS OP run has some support from its members. I bet it hasn't. It's a peach of a run from an imby perspective.

I am not getting sucked in this time. The high looks a bit too far West again. I want to see a robust high over the center of Greenland or slightly east towards Iceland. Then I might get sucked in again.

It's one set of runs, and as you admitted it could change. I still think there maybe be surprises next week in terms of who gets snow fall, but it does look like it will get milder towards next weekend that seems a fairly consistent trend across the models

You need to bear in mind is he posting from an imby perspective, I imagine. He is not going to see snow in his location based on these runs. I do agree that some places will see snow next week, but it looks quite likely most of us will be dry and then go milder by the weekend. Its just a pity we could not have the Greenland High boxed in then we would not have to concern ourselves with these pesky systems. I had a feeling the first system would go too far south, but when they keep coming it's usually bad news.

I would say also impacts from the second warming might be a factor too if it happens. The Mild blip might be due to the brief return of westerlies in the strat before the second warming. On the UKMO deep dive video the presenter suggests this cold spell is due to the warming a couple of weeks ago.

I think the cold may hang on in Scotland with a renewed push of cold southwards around the middle of March

Yes, but some snow before that happens. Any milder push will hopefully be brief too.

Yes, 27 would be fantastic. A proper direct hit with that.

That looks terrible, but hopefully if it comes to pass it's brief before another round of blocking. Just out of curiosity what phase was the mjo in during the 2010 cold spell. Does anyone know? I am just curious why that High never became West based. Was there a low in the right place to reinforce it?

Yes, unfortunately given the GFS OP performance since its upgrade. Also when the ECM is showing a crud run for cold what's the betting it won't be an outlier. I just don't get this run though, if we are to see effects from the second warming, surely that high will want to go North West eventually?

Surely this would go against all background signals? Is this just the GFS throwing an inter run wobble? From an imby perspective the GFS would suit me, at least initially. The ideal would be for a band of slowing moving snow to develop, then eventually retreating back south ushering in a very cold Northerly

Jesus that's awful stuff to be going through. I am sorry. I don't mean to sound flippant but i hope this thread is providing some light relief, if that's possible at all.

The Scots are well used to it. They don't need a warning! So it would seem based off the latest update there could be a North to South split later on in March. That probably means milder weather in most of Ireland too, with the North of England and Scotland staying cold. Although it's interesting they talk of colder weather likely heading south in late March. If that is the case, I hope it's extremely cold air. So this cold period goes out with gutso. Then Spring can commence!

I just hope we get a decent frontal snow event out of this upcoming cold spell. An all snow event with the heavy snow lasting 12 hours will do!

It could be better-I want to see the - 16 upper air plunging down over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Then we could put to bed talk about settling snow at any time of the day!