Josh Rubio
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Posts posted by Josh Rubio
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The river levels across the South West, the Midlands, Wales, Northern England and Scotland are still quite high, so it won’t take much for there to be further flooding issues. The ground is still saturated too.
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Probably far too premature to be asking but are we expecting any more significant rainfall and/or storms within the next few weeks? I think I read in the MOD that we're going to be low pressure dominated for quite a while.
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Back on topic, it seems there’s still several hours of heavy rain to come for Derbyshire and the Pennines. Also, we have to remember that even after the rain has stopped, river levels can and will still be rising in places.
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It’s quite extraordinary how the area of rain has been pretty much stationary, with it just keep on piling in over the same areas.
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3 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:
I can only speak from where I am in England ie Devon but what storm?
Not sure if you're jesting or have been living under a rock, but its no joke giving all the devastation caused so far up and down the country.
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5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Rain really pepping up in the Peak District area now. Wonder if they'll get a red warning tomorrow.
Wouldn’t be surprised if the amber warning was updated to cover more of the East Mids too.
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I have a feeling the Met Office will now be playing catch up in regards to updating and pushing further warnings out, as we may see more rainfall than anticipated on the charts for certain areas.
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11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
A months worth of rain in the space of 2-3 days is pretty extreme in my book. Parts of eastern Scotland could see 3 day rainfall totals exceeding >200mm with the more extreme runs suggesting >250mm+.
This, into an area that doesn't really see significant amounts of rainfall very often, it's unusual to see so much moisture piling in from the east. >100mm expected to fall fairly widely within a 24hr period with those totals doubling over a 3 day period. Personally, that goes into the extreme category.I think @Ross90was responding to @Frostillicus question, who was enquiring about the North West of England.
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1 hour ago, Ross90 said:
The warning system covers the UK not just England...
28 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:This is a very ignorant post. The recent amber warning affecting parts of *Scotland* for heavy rain was absolutely warranted.
Hence why I intentionally said England and not the whole of the UK.
Yes, the warnings for Scotland are most certainly needed, but it seems strange that the east of England and parts of Central areas needs one?
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‘The boy who cried wolf’ comes to mind. Do we really need yet another yellow for heavy rain? Is this not just another bog standard autumnal low pressure system for England?
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Looks like the South is still hanging on to that warm, humid airmass but much fresher everywhere else. Lovely and cool last night and fresh feeling this morning. Glad to see the back of that mild rubbish.
Autumn has arrived
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Looks like the mild muck is finally starting to shift. The last day of humid nights for quite a while now thankfully. It’s forecast to be 16 degrees here overnight. Yuck!
A few wet days ahead but then it clearing, with it turning much cooler and more settled. Looking forward to lovely cool, sunny days followed by cold frosty nights!
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It’s ridiculous mild and rather humid feeling out there right now. Can’t wait for this mild muck to do one and replaced with cold, frosty nights
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3 hours ago, seb said:
Yes. Although still decent and above average temps southeast of a line Cardiff - Birmingham and not much in the way of rain until next weekend. So let’s see where we end up. There would have been times where 17 degrees with sunny spells on 13 October would have been considered amazing weather.
Definitely some marked contrasts in areas according to the ECMWF. This is the expected total precipitation amount up until Sunday 00:00, with the east generally staying the driest.
Though I still think this isn’t a done deal in regards to which areas will receive the highest rainfall amounts.
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33 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
Unfortunately, the weather is very hard to predict any further than a couple of days in advance. Even for the most experienced weather forecasters.
But fingers crossed that you get the weather you are after.
I appreciate that. I was just wondering if there are any early signals or signs of any more deep areas of low pressure being modelled?
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7 minutes ago, dryfie said:
If the WCML floods then it’s often in this area, so watch out for Carlisle/Lockerbie warnings. No problems today with mainly light/drizzle stuff. South of the main area of disruption.
Yep. All too many times have I seen these areas flood unfortunately. Is there much precipitation due this week for these areas at all?
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Is anyone able to get their crystal ball out for me please?
I’m due to head to Glasgow next Saturday by train via the WCML from Rugby - what’s the flooding risk looking like throughout next week and into the weekend? Today has proven bad for many routes to and within Scotland by rail.
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6 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
The first day in quite some time where I'm feeling like I should have brought a jacket /light coat with me today.
A real chill in the air.
The Starks are always right in the end..."winter is coming"
Really? I thought it’s felt exceptionally mild today, despite the breeze.
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I’ve had regular windy days produce more interest than this ‘storm’. Total non-event this is.
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Just a regular autumnal day with a bit of a breeze for the majority of us, will it not be?
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So we’ve gone from a warmer and drier outlook for the end of September to an increasingly unsettled and stormy end?
It begs the question as to what further ‘surprises’ we have in store going into winter.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Does it get stuck over us, bringing us more relentless rain by any chance?