Snowjokes92

With this frontal feature at end of week occurs, people will get the frontal in the south and snow showers piling into say parts of north east england, yorkshire etc. Thats if current 12z gfs is correct. Ukmo have it a bit further north i think, central england would do well, parts of southern pennines would be well hit, on top of lying snow from previous days

Agreed thank you. Was just curious. No how unreliable they are.

Guys this looks more remarkeable than march 2013 for 2010 for yorkshire! These are the most bestest ways of getting impactual snow! March 2013 brought drifts of several feet easy and deepest snow ive ever seen and im 25!! God knows what we will get if next weeks models verify,there even snowiwer than 2013! Anyone else from west yorks have great snowfall totals and drifts? I wasnt born till 1992, what was feb 91 like for snow? Which was worse feb 91 or march 2013 for snow and drifts. Any opinions and stories would be great to here and discuss.

Anyone please got ecm snow charts. I just cant believe the output. Please someone pinch me!! I wonder if steve murr is ok after server crash. Hope hes okay!

Omfg !! The mean is probably best we have seen on here! That is truly astonishing. Mean doesnt go above -7/-8 from 26th to the end of the run!! No wonder servers crashed!!!

Btw what is an omega block! Its one thing i never remember or how it looks on a model chart thanks!

One of the best posters on here, but really didn't understand this post Edit: thought i was the only one who didnt understand it. Just sat 5 mins trying to make sense of it lol.

I agree, iv'e never understood this 10 day business stuff posters mentioned. I think we can say the building blocks are built for it and nailed we just need to get it down to detail later on e.g cold pools, temps, precipitation or how dry high is etc. The timing of the easterly was heavily regarded on here for 21st or so and its spot on. The major impact was always the closing week of the month as well. We also have some models bringing in that deep cold a lot earlier on

I posted wrong ecm means a few moments ago, but the updated ones are fantastic!

Could be. My bad saw 12z on them and got excites. Oops lol. Might be actually ok when they do come out

I agree it will be memorable for either right or wrong reasons, but will learn so much from it.

Well i think this period of model watching can easily granted historic due to the synoptics on the table and the record ssw and major model inconsistency recently. It does beg the question still to me. A number of gefs ensembles for example take 850s to -10 and around 6 or 7 go down to -15 around the same time. It makes me think that the very cold outcome is just as plausible. Are these more rogue runs sniffing something, that the other models havent worked onto yet? It is a modelling period which cannot be compared to previous events in the past. The models have never had to model an ssw on this scale. This makes me feel like we stand a good chance of further upgrades in the model output as we dont know how they are gonna handle this compared to other events. Maybe the upgrades will be brought foward or maybe it wont. Time will tell though and whatever the outcome, this period will be talked about for many years on here am sure.

I agree. The ICON is one of my favourite new models to be honest. With it been a high res model and only run at short range, its good to see how consistent its been and makes me feel optimistic of a fairly decent outcome

Fantastic means. Thats day 6 to 10. Plenty time for any potential upgrades before this, like we have seen in recent days to earlier timeframes.

If all models went up to 120 hours, pretty sure there would not be half as many tauntrums on here! The place would probably be in meltdown. The output after day 5/6 has been so inconsistent in general terms across board. The ICON actually probably most consistent surprisingly

Ecm rolling out soon. Watch it bloody flip lol. Interesting model watch this weekend. If easterly wins out, then this weekend we should see big changes and more eye candy hopefully. The small changes in the short range up to 72, will have an impact on next weeks weather! The models always struggle with heights until near reliable timeframe. So defo think we will see upgrades again. I havent seen this many easterlies modelled in a while, something surely os brewing?

I cant see the temperatures things down the side of the graph. Am i right in thinking the mean stays around 0c from 20th onwards on last chart. If so its very impressive and certainly seems theres a decent cluster of easterlies!

You couldnt actually make it up could you? Majority models go for a bit of blip and ecm finally churns out mouth watering charts lmao. Definetly giving us all a headache. Ive said it before, but all these swings and roundabouts in winter with good teleconnections, are ususlly the ones that deliver something special. Its the typical way the models work in these scenarios. Its the usual run of the mill, all models pick up worse trend, then ecm throws a corker after been so stubborn. Ahead of all the doom and gloom 'winter is over' stuff.Fingers crossed.

Im stunned we are still no closer to knowing what exactly will happen next week. Still open to debate after sunday and its now thursday

The ecm has been utter garbage. It use to be fairly good as well. Its not been really that bothered about an easterly at all since the ssw was modelled. And also the fact ecm is moving towards ukmo in the reliable time frame, it gos pear shaped after reliable timeframe anyway! So frustrating. The ecm defo moving towards colder solution, but only in reliable time. It just shows how poor its been

Could someone please point out to me the all important trigger shortwave we need on the charts

I dont understand why people are getting so disheartened over one run! The ecm was a cracker throughout this morning, up to 144 hours on the 12z its excellent too. Anything after isnt as important. The ecm hasnt even modelled anything remotely that accurate post 144 hours all winter from my recognition anyway! Im just glad the near timeframe the upgrades are there. Thats most important

It may sound like a ramp, im just really excited. But with a major ssw forecast, one that has never been forecast so strong in modern winters and i imagine never been modelled and verified. You would have to think we will see some absolutly bizares model out put, especially when it seems the models are now getting a handle on the reversal. Of course im not saying anything is set in stone either. Whats more so very interesting is that these model outputs have never handled an ssw on this level, so could be some extremely cold runs what have never been seen!

My favourite chart of the evening from one of the gefs! Beyond epic propertions! If some of the gefs runs are correct possibly some of the coldest and snowiest periods on record. Id expect extreme blocked scenarios with the record ssw. I think its possible for the rest of the winter to be on par with the snow/cold from 16th/17th century. Surely it cpuld happen with record ssw event!

Just cherry picked this lovely chart around 138 hrs from gefs. Theres a few of the runs that go towards a similar evolution. Hence the slght plit on the ensembles around day 5/6 this evolution was form horse in last 48 hours and is cropping up again? Anyone else noticed this in the ensembles. I think this route would be better for quicker and sustained blocking! @Steve Murr @Catacol what you guys think?