Snowjokes92

Anyone see what i see on ukmo 144hr? A lot of high pressure situated around the uk. High pressure over scandi and a ridge building from the south and a bit of a ridge north west of uk. I just feel any breakdown looks temporary or likely to go out on a limb as there is a lot of high pressure floating about, which are in beneficial areas to affect us and cant imagine the unsettled weather been able to dominate after that ukmo 144 hr chart. Here it is: Low to the west, ridge moving up from south west, pressure high over scandi and north west atlantic. Potential merging together in time.

Anyone get the feeling from the models the second half of summer could be dominated by high pressure building from the south, low to the west or southwest and the azores high linking to the high pressure above the low pressure ? Similar to the 6z gfs run

Exactly and warm in the sunny spells. The showers will be hit and miss as well. They would be well scattered

The hints of a southerly plume around 240. Yes it gos pear shaped, but its all about the trends. The teleconnections for summer and also whay tamara has been talking about. This is the first gfs run in a few days thats shown a plume coming up from the south at that rough time slot

Like ive just said, the short term outlook is still up in air. None of the models are in agreement. Until the models have agreed with how craig and the atlantic will impact are weather in to next week, the models that further out can be taken with a pinch of salt. Theres a hint of a southerly on the 12z from around 240 hours. Again its no guarntee, but its the trends. Ecm and ukmo are much different to the gfs too. Ive more faith in them.And also on top of what tamara has mentioned recently about 2nd half of summer been more unstable and continental flow from the south/south east Just one last thing, the gfs last week constistently had a low affecting the south of the uk. Gfs was last on board and are summer continued as we are all aware. Gfs is notorious for overplaying atlantic driven weather

Am I only one who thinks gfs is an improvement towards the other models? The run as a whole has a lot more rain than we have been use to, but the midtern onwards wont be correct till the models have agreement on next week! The gfs rather mix and hot at times in fi, but usually at that stage the details change a great deal.we even pull a southerly up at 240 and the run is much dryer than previously suggested

Omg no breakdown on ecm, only a reload and so much potential heat building after that 240 hr. This is unbelievable now guys

The ukmo 12z is gorgeous, but would stronger heights be likely to build. That low seems close. Would that low have any affect on us? It justs like the low could sweep in still? Actually just had a second glance the low looks like it will stall and strong heights pull up? 168hr chart later should tell more

The low gradually been pushed further north west with each run. Keep it like that and that breakdown may go the same way as the last one. It never even happened.experience tells me the models go ott with the low pressure and at a longer range i imagine this circumstance been no different, especially with how summer has panned out

Because of the such continuation of this dry and hot spell, i still believe the hottest part of summer is still to come. Just seeing how long its already lasted. Maybe early august and end of month

Its only because some people have said on two forum that they reached 34c. Dunno if its accurate or not

Does anyone know the highest recorded temperature today?

Cannot believe ive got the chance to open a worthy thread about the extroadinary hot, dry settled spell we have had. As im only 25, you can obviously understand why only recent memory serves me to believe why its been the best summer so far that i can remember. We havent had rain since 16th june and still nothing really at all in the forecast and nothing noteworthy to help the landscape. Theres no real let up. The rain we had on the 16th was a heavy downpour and i think there were only 2 days of measurable rainfall on the back of a very dry may. What are your thoughs and when did you last have rain? How long will it last and what are your stories. Be good to hear as im really mind blown by it all

Its like we have had to adapt to a continental climate! Like we are just use to it or just expect these last few months. If august gos down hill i wont complain especially how great this summer has been. For some one who is from younger generation, im 25 and for my experience and people around me, this summer is way out on its own as been the best by a massive stretch. The 6z carries on more or less of the same again in reliable time frame. Its hard to believe the output. Some of the runs are toying with another hot spell in the 2nd half of the month too this morning on the gfs

And as if by magic the gfs 0z runs are very similar to what we saw at the end of last month and few days ago. Outlier rain spikes, with little support and a main very warm cluster throughout. Where are all the blips going? Its like they never get into reliable time frame. Extroadinary

I think the models have recently been over estimating the influence of low pressure to north west. Today the models are making less of it and because of that the jet stays to the north, allowing pressure to stay high or keep us under a ridge. Ive not seen anything remotely unsettled come inside 240 hrs period and as is the case its still in fi. Have you noticed how just before FI, it stays settled. That should be enough reason to not pay too much attention to anything unsettled, as the runs still carry on holding it back and keep us dry longer

How is the heat over here affecting parts of eastern europe and the med? Is it having a big impact there? Ive heard so. Oh well we have waited long enough for this. I dont feel bad for it either lol

I cant actually believe nothing is giving another possible 10 days of more dry and warm/hot weather for the country and thats at least 10 days given the output. Okay maybe more instability mid week, but not everyone will see thunderstorms. But im sure many would welcome a downpour. But even in the event of a few downpours, its no where near enough, especially how most the output is so so dry

Upgrades and more upgrades. On top of that, this is usually the time of year where it all gos t*ts up for us too. Seems a lot different this year. Even the ensemble means and teleconnections etc dont seem to be standing in are way for a poor summer. Historic output

OMFG dont get me started on thay ecm 12z run. The heatwave is still to forecast to climax according to that run and even beyond it continues!!! It is a bit concerning now though. Here in west yorkshire its been extreme even for our standards. First with the deep freeze going on and on. Now its the dryness and heat. Its been quite a year especially for us up north too. Wow.

I think this weekends temperatures will be very telling to determine how hot it may get next week. You would presume if temperatures were indeed a few degrees higher than the forecasts, you probably be able to have the idea it maybe slightly hotter than forecast.

Christ. This has been the best year of model watching ever and usually when we have heatwave synoptics they usually get watered down. But just like the significant freeze up this year, the upgrades are incoming again. Also my personal belief is the models maybe undercooking the ground temps for many locations, with the significant lack of rain and it will get worse from this day on. I think here in west yorkshire we have had rain fall on 3 days out of themonth amd may wasnt much different. Bonkers start to the summer!

Its weird i cant see no activity over linconshire

Look at this mornings snow. Caught everyone. I wouldnt be surprised for it to be the case again

Pennines and saddleworth could get another big hit if that radar is correct