Snowjokes92

I agree. The general pattern on the 12z is very similar to the morning run to the end of run. Of course anything around 96 to 120 hrs is FI in my view. It seems to very slow at evolving and flatter compared to a few days ago. Think your right, they have hit a brick wall for now, until the SSW starts to show its hand on the models. Even then expect many twists and turns as the models juggle with the new data.

Yes. My stomach doing somersaults. Very important 12z, but i don't think it will still be resolved for short term prospects.

Probably the cause of the big swings at such short range across the models. All the data that is probably flooding into these models from such short range is bound to have a massive impact on how they perform. I can only believe this is why the output in 3 to 4 days is very much all over the place. If this SSW is becoming major from tomorrow, then keep expecting big swings to come, as none of the models havent a solid clue on what to do.

This you on about?

Do you think the rest of it will do the same? Couldndo with a little shift south for this part in my opinion

Where is it heading. Need ground covered properly here still lol. That precipitation over bottom flank seems to be building

Bodes well if its dropping south to southwest as winds veer more easterly later too

Same look at the stream behind it! Could get a bit of a dumping finally!

Are we gonna get looky in kirkless with this next bit coming through at northeast?

Thank you im more interested in the big one coming in above it to north east lol.

Hows rest of afternoon looking for huddersfield

Hows the feature tomorrow looking for kirklees/huddersfield area?

Well that main vortex is mostly over asia, as it has been for some time. Those uppers you posted look like they are trying to seep closer to the European doorstep. I guess this is what will most likely aid and enhance the uppers coming over from Scandi and northsea maybe. It is indeed great to see such charts aftee last years horror show. We should see small tweeks in the output over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Only realising how close to something spetacular that chart is, im sure over time that deep cold over siberia has snuck ever closer?

Definetly looking like Sotland/north west and yorkshire been a sweet spot at the moment for a decent dumping soon and many surprises to come elsewhere. Thats even been the case with the swings and changes amongst the output. Still been a persistent likelihood for snow in these parts. I only imagine many other parts been involved as uppers and dew points become less marginal, say on the east coasts for example. Just keep watching the radar happy new year all

Is that a ramp?! all looking good to me so far. Not reading too much into past 120-144 hours as they go very volatile. Understandable with all the goings on with the strat. I remember the same in February 2018 before the incoming SSW occured in real time. Or it might have been when it came into close range. Can't remember. Models dont do well when its comes to SSW in my opinion. Not to mention the other things happening in the strat. Thats when you see the huge swings from run to run. You know something is brewing, just when ?

I 100% agree with you there. It isnt normal whatsoever, at least on that scale. Theres a hell of a lot of blocking that side and lower heights on this side with main vortex on are side. I know which one i prefer either way! The longer those block over america and the atlantic stay hold, the harder it will be to shift and have a firm imprint on the weather there. The polar vortex will have a big fight on its hand i think if it tries to reform there, particularly if we lock into a significant cold pattern.

Just where has the atlantic gone? Infact theres nothing there to fuel any systems over america and to the atlantic for that matter. It all looks very unusual and be hard to find an example to compare similar events in the past. All before an SSW and EAMT event has occured and had an impact?

Thats what i dont get as well? Very puzzling. Its like vortex has shrunk and only appears to the eastern side of the hemisphere. It will be difficult for it to really get going after this. Theres not even a whiff of any strong depressions either for that matter. Usually it would be prefered to see a weak/moderate sharp vertical form of vortex to west of greenland to stop any block become too west based to benefit us well in these cold scenarios. Judging by the way this pattern seems to be developing and data been churned out, I don't see a route to anything other than cold/very cold for eastern side of the northern hemisphere. Its just oozing so much potential to me. Bet those keen American watchers who are cold enthusiasts are sitting there feeling a bit how we did last winter.

These must have been the dumpings of snow the elders use to talk about from when they were younger in 60 ands 70s. They always said the snow use to be really deep back then and we dont get systems like that above m4 these days. Well not on that scale. Only a matter of time surely ?

Great post and very informative. What got me is the +EAMT event. Not totally clued up on it but aware its a big player in the coming days/weeks. I am presuming this is still to happen, have the models got the data in their runs to support it or is this due to start showing in the runs when it happens. If its not already been picked up on, then goodness could be some really juicy runs or maybe thats already behind some of the lovely runs for coldies?

Is there anything else expected today looks like showers behind the initial front?

Getting heavier and coming right this way

Bloody radar not updated for 20 mins just sods law. Snow coming down nicely though here!

Definetly have a look of 1947 some of these runs coming out!! Omfg if only!