Snowjokes92

Agreed am just pointing it out because what ive read with the current ssw forecast on here and the experts, the building blocks appear to be in a good position to give us a decent shot. Especially also seeing the ssw LRFs that get posted on here for northern hemi. A lot of high pressure anomalies showing in the prime areas for greenland and the arctic from teleconnections ive seen on here

These evolutions from the models certainly paint the picture that its not going to be as straight forward to get a white xmas here. Am assuming the less amplified and more default solution we are seeing today for next week, might be due to the SSW been forecast as its a lot more complicated for the models to forecast. I remember how last year the models would flip with the ssw forecast in feb

These charts are stonking even for mid december! Even early december you dont often get classic scandi highs like are been shown on the output. Makes you wonder what the rest of winter could hold with good teleconnection signals for coldies and low solar activity. Just to add my birthday is 15th december so i could be in with a higher chance of snow than usual by the way things are going. Its doesnt often snow on my birthday either.

Im presuming if blocking prevails into early december and we get a ssw in mid december, that can possibly mean even more extreme patterns emerging., especially if blocking is still occuring I'm sensing a lot high latitude blocking possible early december, what effects on the northern hempishere would we expect if we added an ssw into the mix, with the blocking already established in some shape or form?

Wow look at that the main part of the vortex all over the siberia area and the yellows building up over scandinavia and towards greenland. A good start for coldies

I agree about the scandi ridge as brilliant as it is, but definetly looking like it will fall for now. But like i said previously, teleconnections and back ground signals and developing el nino, are defonetly going to change from what we have had the last few months. Which is why i said, i think we will be more prone to more unsettled and variable weather in between at the very least.

The ecm shows a breakdown to cooler weather mid week and hints of a pressure rise at latter end of the run. Not a bad run really. I think people are struggling to come to terms with potential unsettled and cool blips after the last few extroadinary months. But that pattern from june and july has shifted and done with and that be the same with teleconnections. Im not saying this doesnt imply settled and hot spells for the rest of the month. Im just saying the patterns have shifted from the extremely dry nature that we saw in may, june and most of july, to something more normal if you can put it like that. The teleconnections are shifting different mixes and terriotries, which would take away the abundance of constant weeks of dry and warm weather, to a pattern more prone to unsettled blips making incursions from time to time. I think other posts like @Tamara and @Singularity may know what im getting at. Thats how im understanding it at the minute. My knowledge on background signals etc isnt quite vast

Its very windy in kirkless like constant gusts out of no where whats happening lol

To me its not about how long ago it feels. Its how relentlessly cold and snow it was, which felt like it was going on forever. Then it felt like a sudden switch to hot and very dry. I cant remember any major wet periods. The snow has overrrided the rain this year and with the dry summer, it just doesnt feel like we have had any proper rain for so long

P10 gfs 12z smashes the record day after day after day. Surely 40c barrier will be smashed if that came off constant dry, hot southerly air flow and upper air temps high teens for days. Its hottest run ive ever seen in longivity too

Just flicked through some of the 12z gefs, some of them are bringing the heat back by monday/tuesday and some exceptional heat on a few of them. Honestly quite exceptional then record heat most likely

Is there a still a chance we could see the high uppers a bit more further west just a bit touch and go for friday i feel. Hope im wrong.

Is it me or does the ukmo 144hr chart look out of kilter to the other models and previous ukmo runs. Just looks too close to comfort maybe im wrong though

I think the systems to the west are been still overplayed considering the extreme nature of the high to the east. The models dont often deal with such a set up and think the low out to the northwest will diminish more in the coming days. Look how last week unfolded, certainly nothing how it was been modelled days before the event. Baby steps in the coming days to push things more west i think..

Not saying its going to come off, but some of those rogue gfs runs at the end thay we have seen gives us the potential to break the record a few times over. Incredible, interesting times

And even at that its an underestimarion. I nearly fainted. The record just about smashed, adding how the gfs undercooks the highs. But if that 40c cant be out of question

Still havent forgot 2 weeks ago when gfs wanted to bring a low up from the sw and bringing a fair amount of rain and a breakdown. Ecm and ukmo stayed firm and gfs jumped on board later. Not saying the gfs runs have been terrible today, but the latest one gos off on one next week, but to be honest im not too concerned.

Yes and thats fine if you like that sort of weather for thunderstorms. Am sure the low would meander and high to the west try to build in. But like i said it will change

Ecm 12z looks very hot and sticky. And a ridge appearing from the west at 240 for a possible reload of the weather we have been experiencing. Details will change

Its utterly vanished under are eyes and at this range. Its absolutly unbelievable. People around here are all paying attention to media and expecting a 'big change' next week. In reality next week the dryness overrides the unsettled period! Ive never known a turnaround like it. I mean it was hardly gonna be a washout, but next week has definetly left a lot of people with egg on their faces.

Ive just flicked through some of gefs and if they verified the uk could see some records been smashed. Very hot and slack some of those members and very feasible imo. Oh dear this breakdown is really turning into nothing and been overshadowed by remerging high pressue. Ill stick this here

Think here on we may see further upgeades, the last part the coming week is looking more dryer towards end of week and not much rain through week, most may miss

I think maybe the models are struggling to deal with end result here. Which in my opinion will be trough to west of uk and ridge building up from the south. Gfs 12z does this, its not a clean scenario, but i think once the models have a firmer understanding of chris, i think we will see more cleaner runs develop delivering another decent spell of weather after the blip if you can call it that

Might sound stupid. But what does the term permacast mean? Ive heard it mentioned numerous times on TWO and on here. Never really understood it

Think something like this from gfs 6z will be a reoccuring theme for second half of summer. Low to south west of uk, pressue building over the low pressure and building in with plume like weather to the south. Something similar maybe to what tamara has been talking about recently. Lets see if we can get a pattern like this and hope the teleconnections continue to work in are favour. Hopefully we can see the models churning it out into an ongoing and reoccuring pattern for the rest of the summer, rather than something shortlived.What do you think @Tamara