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Snowjokes92

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, bazookabob said:

    Not an expert but I think dew points are crucial, they will be dropping so far below zero as the snow arrives that the moisture in the ground will freeze quite quickly. Plus the snow falling onto it helps lower the temperature of the water more quickly, helping it freeze even quicker. So then the snow is settling onto ice and will not melt on contact. 

    Thank you for that. Make perfect sense. I guess the conditions are perfect for it then. Explains why some instances it doesnt settle well on wet surfaces because of the different coiditions.

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Lincs to > Derbyshire streamer 75% confidence - 10-30cm+ from N Lincs, parts of S Yorks and into Chesterfield 

    Chance of 10-30cm around this area (between Leeds and Nottingham) is ~50% (still quite high) but reflecive of uncertainty in the streamer position

    A direct hit west of the Pennine 150m contour would result in 5-10cm

    Thank you Kasim. But what about Huddersfield/Wakefield area? Surely with orographic lift and elevation anywhere around pennines, will do well anyway? As shown by accumalation charts?

     

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    No movement in dew points over East Anglia yet however the next very heavy batch over Lincolnshire for south/west Yorkshire may do some damage given temperatures are mostly 2-4C already before that pushes stuff down.

    The ground is so sodden here. I remember the mid January snow event, it was so sodden then and settled absolutly fine. Hope it is same again. I know the theory of wet ground doesnt bode well for snow to stick but we know its not true. Anyone know why it still settles when its so sodden? In simple terms, i guess its to do with ground been cold enough and slush forms on the surface, aiding snow to eventually settle. 

    • Thanks 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    Also just to add to the streamers discussion, some lucky  places will be direct hit of the heavier precpitation. But its worth remembering when they develop, the outer layers of the streamer can be bulky and merge with other showers around it. So it just shows you don't need to be directly under the middle of the stream. Countless times in the past I recall streams heading too far North or South of my location and getting the edge of it. You can still get a lot and like I say showers can merge against them, bringing more places in the action. They don't always develop as a straight organised stream. They can be clumps of precipitation on the boundarty layers if that makes any sense.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, CreweCold said:

    You're correct. But remember 2 days ago when it looked like the SE would miss out due to a mild sector? There was uproar in here; post after post. So why can't members from other locations express the same frustration like the SE lot were able to?

    You have a point, I rest my case. But seriously, things can change so quickly and short notice. Look at that surprise snowfall the other week when the North West and even blackpool got a covering. I think that was the one with the front moving up north? Think it might have been a marginal event overall, but was underestimated by all the models

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, winterof79 said:

    Rain relief same as if showers were coming from the west, then we wouldn't benifit. There needs to be a stiff breeze to get the showers over the Pennines. 

    Thank you thats cleared things up a bit.

    must be frusrating on that side. I always remember west of region and north yorkshire been pasted in east and north easterlies and then precipitation moving over the pennines lose intensity.

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    Hope the snow showers pile up against the pennines and merge into bigger spells of snow. Seem to remember something similar in 2018 Beast from the east at one point. What causes the difference in snow east of pennines, to the west in these set ups? Always seems to be a big contrast. Can't really grumble though as its a good recipe for big totals for places around huddersfield, glossop, queensbury etc

     

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    6 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

    We are tough in Yorkshire lol we can take it

    True. I just think theres a bit of fury about it from some member when things don't go to plan and ends up in snappy arguments and handbags out.

    Its true though. We should just enjoy what we get at the end of the day. The south are satisfied in the summer with the heat and good on them. We are never lucky enough to ever get any of the long lasting warm hot spells they are graced with frequently these days. I know we don't fair bad but its swings and roundabouts...

    • Like 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    I just took a peak in south/south east thread! Jeez its like the model output thread part 2 in there! I am so glad everyone is pleasant in here. Everyone is easy to get on with and agrees to disagrees. No toy throwing chaos like the model thread! Everyone helps and gives as much knowledge as they can to help me and many others.  Which I am very grateful for.

    If things go wrong, we just accept. It can be incredibly frusrating, but I feel its borderline personal with some people on here when things don't go the way they want it to go.

    They get the heat in summer down in the south,we miss out all the time on the extreme impact of the heat(aware its not for everyone). Swings and roundabouts I suppose

    Its the weather at end of day. Its beyond are control and sometimes more complex than a weather model can ever know.

     

    • Like 6

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    9 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

    Here you go...

    56DE9D90-0402-480C-A32D-A3C40F963792.jpeg

    Thank you I dont take them too seriously, but all the more reason to be happy with that. Win win, these things usually move around closer to time. Id rather it show highest impact to the north east for now, as I have a feeling models will shift it a little south. A lot can go wrong ive learned a few days out, when your area shows the highest totals. Think id be anxious if it had that 60cm anomaly slap bang over yorkshire at this point. Still nice to see though. 

    Also remember impact varies more than them charts show i think personally.

    • Like 4

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Even a 100 miles shift south at weekend will keep us in a high impact area, even with the variations of the easterly been further north on some runs. So I won't be disheartened of  a 100 mile shift south of that depression on sunday, as we would still firmly primed for convection, the boundary is right up to scotland, so any trends south still gives us a strong chance of some amazing conditions I think.

     

    Of course for an IMBY point of view id still happily bank that run for us haha

    Anyone got the 240 hour ecm snow chart? Thank you

    One last thing for the experts, do the ecm snow charts take into account of convection accumalations? From what I have heard in past, not a lot of models do or at least not till nearer the very short term frames?

    Also does convection show on ecm over our region? I may or think I heard for that you need -10 uppers or some other anomaly etc to go with it?

     

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