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Snowjokes92

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    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Cheese Rice said:

    Hmmmm I think realistically the most we can expect is a period of frontal snow turning to rain/sleet on the back edge. 

    The further north you are the higher the chances of it staying as snow throughout with the highest accumulations north of Yorkshire as per the meto warning for Wednesday. 

    Sweet spot in this region looks to be from North Leeds to Harrogate northwards over high ground (a bit of a running theme this winter).

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Still 60 hours away, will only take a few miles here and there for subtle differences where the boundary is and the trend has been to keep it south, which would likely stop any transition to rain. Will see though

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    5 minutes ago, Craigers said:

    I've always said things will improve each day and they have with 12z upgrades. Tuesdays snow will trend further south.

    Yep and it would still keep whole county in firing line and benefit us for wednesday I think. Its a situation that can upgrade provided we see these small trends south and fortunatly for us its  Yorkshire that will be in the sweet spot for it. All before the interest developing afterwards! Grab your thermals guys

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, Tim A said:

    Arpege is fine for a decent snow event, yes eventually pushing north and probably turning to drizzle but that is in line with the Met Office automated too, plenty of snow before then.

    Can't seen it stalling over us for days but that was always an outside chance. Get out and enjoy the snow on Tuesday whilst you can.

    arpegeuk-45-81-0.png?30-17

    Think the GFS is far too quick 

    I still think theres a good chance that the front wont make it that far north and with the assumption of gfs been maybe a bit progressive, it may adjust more south, meaning we have a good chance of it stalling over us and the borderline mild uppers staying south or been washed out. These adjustments south will give us a better oppertunity for Wednesday too. It could end up been a bit of a nowcast situation to wether its an all snow event, its very borderline. But majority of it will be snow, just need it a few miles south to keep any of those milders uppers away. Even if  they do squeeze in, they get washed out quite quickly and its brief. The time frames coming up are where we want to see these tweeks. We are in the firing line, but really want an all snow event from a personal point of view.

    • Thanks 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    What do the experts think in here for Tuesday front? Can we expext any tweeks with uppers and dew point line filtering just south of region. My concern is the thought of it turning to rain as its very close to been all snow event or snow to rain for parts of west and south yorkshire? Uppers close to 0 and 1 later in the day, however if we can get uppers to stay south a tiny bit we should be ok. Something like the Gem 12z run actually!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

     

     

    33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Here are the graphs for London and Sheffield

    ens_image.thumb.png.f6a93bc877f7d2186dba28ee1098654f.png1652059313_ens_image(1).thumb.png.6ad3ee9312dbd98f2dd683834bbbe5f7.png

    an upgrade from last nights.

    Interesting for Tuesday, the uppers starting to dilute by the looks of it for Sheffield with that front.  More signs of mild uppers been washed out or not getting as far north and less marginal for some. Very good adjustments happening short term.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Winter Cold said:

    It is hard not to start getting excited.

    I keep reminding myself the last cold spell the other month went up in smoke about 4 days out and then there was the famous easterly implode at T72 in 2012!

    But, we do have good model agreement so far and it's looking great.

    Would love an appetizer this week and it's great to see the temps have trended down from 7c to 3c now on meto website for Tues! Are we going to see snow which hangs around for a while finally!

    Today might be the last time we see 8c for a very long time! ❄️

    I agree its hard to not get excited, but its the adrenaline rollercoaster ride before a possible big event that makes the whole thing worth while and interesting. Of course it can go wrong, but we stand the best shot now of the winter and support building across the models. Its not too far out and we have some great interest in semi reliable timeframe to look at. 

    I keep thinking of the snow event the other thursday and compare it with the even more potential on offer. Possible frequent snow events. Please be true!

    Tuesday/Wednesday looks classic.

    Hope its the last of any 8c weather too!

    • Like 4

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

    oh this comment gave me tingles!! .... 

    Its giving me tingles all this. I know things can go wrong, but we can see the potential even before an easterly. The snow would stick around and keep building as days go on providing we have the precipitation and in favoured spots for it. But its looking amazing. 

    Might as well make most of the potential and enjoyment before it happens, given everything else going on.

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    OMG the gfs 6z run! And even Tuesday/Wednesday from the ICON show a potential 24 hour snow event across Yorkshire and Central England!

    All before any beasterly potential. The snow fields building all before any easterly. Loving this output❄❄❄

     

    Btw on the Icon run, I am looking at the timeframes from 1pm tuesday to wednesday at 7am and the front is still sat across the county. So still going on after 18hours. Could be a 24 hour event maybe.

    • Like 5

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Harsh Climate said:

    I think the key is how long the precipitation sticks around once conditions become favourable.

    I'd expect due points to go below 1c from about 11-12pm tonight, initially in west and south yorkshire, then to most parts later.

    Thank you. Im just at a lost with the situation. Not been too focused on tonights feature as didn't expect it to amount to much. Not seen any real mention on significant snow at all on here as thought it was looking too marginal. But after reading the North West thread just now and talks in there of 'witnessing something historic' its making me wonder if this snow event has been heavily under estimated? Just look how heavy thay precipitation is for a start.

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snowjokes92

    Wow! More than I expected not stopped all day! Exceeded my expectations. Thick of it probably a good 10 to 15cm bit more in deeper bits as well! Also gfs 12z ensembles are sniffing out a very cold and snowy pattern and seems to have a lot more support. Trends slowly getting better at short notice after a wobble, usually how these events go. Think we could be in for some big surprises guys!

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