Supacell

Thank you. I expect people think I'm nuts too when they drive past me standing in the rain

I'm the same and also targeted East Yorkshire. Although I got to see the northern part of the storm as it moved away I would have loved to have been further south around The Wash. It may not be the last chance for this year. Next weekend into early next week offers up another thundery plume, although at 5+ days out its a case of watch this space as opposed to get excited.

Well after throwing my toys out of the pram earlier and saying I was going home, I changed my mind and tried to make a play for the big storm over Lincolnshire. So, after watching the quick death of a storm that tracked from Lincoln to where I was in Brigg I headed firstly into Grimsby and then southwards along the east coast. I could see the huge amount of lightning strikes across South Lincolnshire and knew I wouldn't get into the core of this storm before it exited out to sea. My "damage limitation" was to try and at least get to see some distant lightning over the sea. As I headed south beyond Cleethorpes I could see ever darkening skies to the south with the occasional feint flash. It did seem from the radar that I would narrowly miss the storm but maybe get some footage of it from off the coast. Unless it could veer a little further north of east. As I approached the village of Saltfleet there was a bright flash and bang of thunder, followed by a sudden blast of torrential rain and wind. I quickly parked up and stood in a bus shelter filming. I had just arrived as the northern part of the storm was moving away after skimming Saltfleet but there was still almost constant rolling thunder, some flashes of lightning and the occasional bigger flash with much louder thunder. I didn't see any bolts at this stage, but then I didn't have a very big view. As the sun began to come out on one side of me whilst thunder roared on the other, I decided to head a little south and stopped off at a little place called Theddlethorpe whereby there are great views all around, including to the east and out to sea. As the sun began to set behind me I was greeted to a gorgeous rainbow over the sea accompanied by a decent lightning show. This lightning show carried on for at least half an hour as the MCS that had affected a chunk of southeast Lincolnshire moved northeast in front of me, just a few miles off the coast. It was almost bittersweet. I was seeing a spectacular lightning display, but I wished I had been there just a little earlier and therefore had chance to get more into the storm. If I'd made it to Skeggy I'd have witnessed the storms full wrath. However, considering I was ready to give up, I did end up getting the consolation prize I was looking for.

I give up today. Headed to Brigg to intercept the cell heading up from Lincoln and it died out just before getting to me. I can't see today coming off for me so off back home

I'm getting a bit concerned now that there will be these two big storms and little else. And I'm sat between the two of them.

Holy cr**. Look at the amount of lightning strikes

I feel exactly the same. Fingers crossed. The activity down south does seem to be moving this way and @Ben Sainsbury is saying the Arome 9z model breaking out storms in the North Midlands shortly, which would be a good direction for us.

I'm currently near Doncaster so I'd never make it on time unfortunately

I'm feeling the urge to drive down the A1 towards that MK cell as it moves north. But my experience has taught me it will probably fizzle out just as I get there whilst a supercell erupts in my original target area of York.

Currently two storms stand out. One over the North Pennines and one moving directly over Milton Keynes. I've now moved a little further north and just outside Doncaster with a few spots of rain coming from high cloud, and feeling muggy.

Currently just off the M1 near to Sheffield with the plan to head north in the direction of Wetherby/York.

I'll be heading north today. Likely to position myself near the A1 somewhere east of Leeds which offers a quick route northwards. A lot of disparity between models again but I'm going to follow the Arome which pretty much nailed yesterday's storms. This would therefore favour North Yorkshire from somewhere like Selby up to York.

I know Sheffield is a big place but how did you manage to avoid the storm on 8th July? I drove through Sheffield under a storm for the whole time, and it was quite a big system. Edit: I see you've answered this as I was typing. You are correct, it didn't get much further north than Sheffield.

I will be out and about chasing over the next couple of days. I've just forked out on a new vehicle though, so large hail isn't very welcome . My thoughts are that I will stay local today. Its a low risk but high reward scenario, but that convergence zone looks to occur not far from here. Tomorrow is now looking more like a trip northwards but still a lot of chopping and changing in the models. Hoping to end the season with a bang and make 2023 a season a bit like a sandwich. Started well, ended well but with a 2 month chunk of cr@p in the middle.

Locking this thread now. Apologies to @Eagle Eye you got in early . Please feel free to copy your forecast into the new thread if you wish. New thread here

September already, that happened quickly! Where did summer go? Well, looks like it's on its way back this weekend and beyond. So here we go, a new thread for September, first month of Autumn, but still a month where thunderstorms can and do occur. Having said that the first few days of the month at least are offering up low chances of anything thundery with some much yearned summer like sunshine being the flavour of our weather. The exception is today which does look more unsettled and showery, more especially across southeastern parts. For me, and a lot of us, August was fairly quiet for storms. For those who want the storms, let's hope for an uptick in activity as we head through September. August thread here for those who want to look back. Keep posting and remember to keep on topic and to be nice and respectful to others.

There are some storms currently moving out of Le Havre into the Channel. Movement looks generally northwards. If they survive they look to hit around Eastbourne. Big "if" though.

Where I can understand the frustrations of this year's storm season for some, can we please stay on topic and not derail this thread into a thread about the performances of the Met Office. As for this evening, there is still a bit of uncertainty as to where any storms will occur or if any will occur at all. I was planning on chasing this evening despite the inevitable long drive. However I'm now not convinced the drive would be worth it. Edit: Eastward shift on AROME 12z. Risk area now looks to be Kent and then grazing the coasts of Essex and southern Suffolk.

If there was any model I would want to extend the risk westwards then it would be the Arome. In my opinion it handles convective weather better than the other models. If Arome says Peterborough as western extent I'd be inclined to agree.

Now if it was raining chocolate I'd definitely be out chasing!!

I think he says error bars as he's referring to the margin of area with predicting where any storms will be.

Met Office warnings for tomorrow night's possibilities will probably be released tomorrow morning. I'd imagine too much uncertainty at this stage to put out a warning.

Remember this one well, for the wrong reasons . It looked on all the models as though the further east one went the better the chances. I positioned myself east of London. The storms then erupted west of all the predictions and I had to back track some distance westwards to get them. Unfortunately they were moving so quickly northwards that I missed the best show. Moral is, the models are only a guidance. I'll be keeping my eyes on tomorrow night and hopefully won't make the same mistake again.

Considering the amount of off topic posts we get on this thread it seems a bit strange to be pulling @Eagle Eye up on his forecasts, which are amongst the most on-topic, useful and helpful posts on here. I get the theory that his forecasts may get buried in the masses of posts on busy days but this is just part and parcel of a busy forum. I personally scan through looking for the more informative posts on busy days, but admittedly miss some. As for forecasts being raised for low risk days... a low risk is still a risk.

Locking this thread now. Please continue discussions over here -------> https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99147-storms-and-convective-discussion-august-2023/#comment-4898355