Supacell

@Eagle Eye Thanks. Already committed to the storms that will hopefully develop further north now though. Currently near to Snaith and looking south it appears clouds are building. Arome is showing some intense precipitation around here from around mid afternoon. Going to have a picnic in the sun and then see how it looks.

I'm in Doncaster now, thanks for this.

Ok thank you. I've been chasing for years but have very limited meteorological knowledge. I tend to rely on others for that part

Maybe somewhere to the north of the Humber would be better then?

Although storms could occur pretty much anywhere I am planning to head northeast, probably settling somewhere in North Lincolnshire area. Fingers crossed it pays off.

I am keeping my eye on tomorrow for widespread storms, probably the most widespread we have seen so far this year. Even today the odd flash and rumble cannot be ruled out, more especially across southern and southwestern areas today and then maybe the south coast overnight. However, I am not seeing a huge risk with CAPE not overly high. Tomorrow looks to be a classic May day of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing inland in response to daytime heating. Cold air aloft across England and Wales especially, along with strong May sunshine should help to bolster CAPE values up to around 1000 j/kg, building north-eastwards through the day and eventually away to the east through the evening. Shear is fairly weak and so pulse type storms are most likely but these could tend to congregate along convergence zones. They will also be slow moving and so flooding could become an issue. It is too early for specifics as to where the greatest likelihood of storms will be but my current thinking is the main risk will shift north and east with time, meaning that by later in the day the showers may lose some intensity in the southwest, whilst they become more intense to the north and east. There appears to be reasonable agreement on a good thunder risk tomorrow and so I will be out chasing.

I am quite close to the risk area today and so, although the risk is low, I am prepared to get out for the first time this year. It is a low probability that I'll actually chase but if I do I'll be heading towards the Peak District on the Staffordshire/Cheshire/Derbyshire border for about mid/late afternoon time. There are some good views to the west from that part of the world. Very uncertain outlook today but the sunny start should help. This is the sky here.

Speaking of bog roll. I forgot it was going to go off and nearly had a toilet accident

Yes, one rumble of thunder along with a bit of hail. First thunder of the year. Not able to chase today though, but then moving a but quick to chase anyway.

New thread here https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98550-storms-and-convective-discussion-20th-march-2023-onwards/

I was planning on waiting until April 1st to open a new thread as this is when I tend to become interested in all things convective again. However, considering there has already been some convective interest over the last few days and indeed more to come during the week ahead, I have brought forward those plans. It is a joy to be seeing decent opportunities ahead for thunderstorm risks as early as March. Welcome back all fellow storm fans. So here we go. Old thread below. https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97528-storms-and-convective-discussion-1st-august-2022-onwards/ And as for these opportunities. Well the forecasts on TV are already mentioning "thundery" in the forecasts for tomorrow, but my interest is further ahead with GFS, NMM and UKV all showing interest for Thursday onwards especially as an area of low pressure parks itself close by and generates lots of showers, some of which are likely to be thundery with hail. We are not talking intense summer heat and plumes of course, but some nice springlike thunderstorms with good convective skies and rainbows. Admittedly I am more about chasing than forecasting, I sometimes try to forecast but I am best leaving that to the experts. I can though, see the opportunity. If I capture a thunderstorm within the next week, it will be the first time I have ever captured a thunderstorm in March and 2023 will be my 20th year of storm chasing. MUCAPE charts from Thursday to Sunday from the NMM

Locking this thread shortly and opening a new thread (a little late I know) for the new 2023 season.

In many years i see March as being the month where snow is most likely to fall. Its just not the month where snow is most likely to stick.

A decent blanket of snow in Belper. Nothing like the nearby Peak District but it'll do . Enjoyed a nice snowy walk this morning.

Snowing heavily here with big flakes. Starting to settle again. If this lasts all night there will be a good blanket by morning

Wet snow on and off all day in the centre Belper where there was a light covering this morning, but its just a slushy mess now. Heavier snow as I type so it may accumulate again this evening and overnight. I hiked from Whatstandwell up to Crich (which is around 300m asl) and it was very different. A good blanket of snow with about 10cm over the fields and starting to drift.

Been moderate snow for a couple of hours but its struggling to settle. Probably because i'm in the town centre. No idea what it's like out of town.

Unfortunately I'm in the town centre so not easy to get proper snow settling outside my door. But a 5 minute uphill walk and you can often see a big difference. So I can't complain.

I may walk into the Amber Warning area tomorrow . About 2-3 miles to my northwest.

I have my fingers crossed for Thurs/Fri here in Mid Derbyshire. If ECM 00z is on the mark then I could see something pretty special. If GFS 06z is correct then it'll be marginal, and Belper doesn't tend to do well with marginal. At least it doesn't away from the hills to my north and west. The position of tomorrow's low to my south may give a better indication of where Thursdays sweet spot will be. Edit: Light snow shower outside my window right now

@Eagle Eye The last one looks a bit like 25th August.

I'm somewhere between Chelmsford and Southend-on-Sea and have no idea what to do. The Eastern part of the activity is dying away and all the action is further west again. I wish I understood more about meteorology Edit: Apart from a Kent clipper that i will never catch

Decided to take the gamble. Currently just north of Cambridge and about to head in the direction of London then Essex or possibly Kent.

That's my conundrum at the minute. In seeing that skies have cleared on the south coast of Devon cams and so hoping that means the sun will come out more widely. Even then, once storms start to develop they could very quickly become a wet mess. However, I've got to be in it to win it. As for "chasing", that'll be impossible, it'd be a case of being in the right place ahead of them, otherwise they'll be off over the horizon before I can put the key in the ignition. Also can't help feeling this is likely the last chance this year.

I think the main event for Eastern areas is this afternoon and evening. I don't think there is a main event for here, just good old fashioned Derbsyhire rainfall, the persistent non stop kind. Good job I'm free to drive elsewhere today.