Supacell

Near to Whitchurch and can hear distant thunder moving away. A shower passed over and turned thundery as it moved off. My eye is to the south on that cell passing to the west of Brum. I'm in its path, providing it doesn't fizzle.

Good luck. I suppose if it kicks off around Brum amd moves NNW then I may be in a decent position.

Now in Wem. Some strong echoes moving out of Telford but without lightning and lots of activity over the West Midlands. I may have to return a tad east. Then again. Maybe not

Currently just near to Audlem near the Shropshire/Cheshire border. Currently hot with lots of blue skies and little signs of instability yet. Very early yet though, think I have a few hours yet.

Hopefully they'll miss you and you and the lad can enjoy a warm, balmy evening . The risk does look much lower for our homelands so you should be ok. I have friends and family at Download who are hoping the storms miss there too. Our chances get higher later tomorrow and Monday.

Not often we see a high risk from Convective Weather. I will be heading north west into the high risk zone this afternoon.

An interesting few days coming up from a convective standpoint, especially when in relation to the dryness and calmness of the last 3-4 weeks. The interest starts today and runs right through to probably Tuesday of next week, so potentially 5 days of storm potential! I am thinking this thread is going to get quite busy. However, showers and storms do look very hit and miss and many places will stay dry, and with a return of dry weather after the convective potential, some places could end up going into a 5th week without rain. Overall, there looks to be daily build up of reasonable CAPE for intense thundery potential but shear is weak and the support for organised activity looks low. Even so, with the magnitude of CAPE available, any storms that do form have the potential to be briefly severe before they collapse, with a lot of lightning and gusty winds. The highest risk of impacts would appear to be from flooding where any storms occur as storms will be slow moving and, especially through Sunday and Monday, could train along convergence zones, allowing some places to pick up in excess of 50-70mm of rain. This falling onto hardened ground after the recent dry spell. I will attempt to go through the thundery potential over each of the next few days but remember this is just a forecast based on what the models I am looking at are currently showing. Even for tomorrow it is somewhat uncertain, by Monday it is just really a guideline currently. Today – 9th June Light showery rain is already affecting the far southwest of Cornwall and the Scilly Isles, but I would not be surprised if people underneath it are still relatively dry as most is probably evaporating. Some slightly more robust showers to the south of the Channel Islands but these are for now devoid of thunder. Individual pockets of rain are moving north-westwards as the area moves slowly north-eastwards. Through today areas of light showery rain from Ac-Cas cloud is likely to continue in the southwest, maybe pushing into South Wales later in the afternoon. By evening there may also be some flashes of lightning in the far southwest of Cornwall. It will be feeling much more humid in these areas with temperatures pushing into the mid to high twenties, especially where any sunshine is more prolonged. Overnight showers will become a little more widespread over the southwest and the West Country with the risk of thunderstorms, the thunder risk probably more likely across the far southwest of Cornwall. Elsewhere for today, it is a continuation of the theme we have become accustomed to, although cloud should break a little faster for eastern parts. Sunshine was already out here in Derbyshire by 8am, earlier than any of the past few days. Saturday – 10th June Showers, possibly with the odd flash of lightning, are likely to be affecting the Southwest of England through the morning. During the afternoon these scattered showers and thunderstorms push/expand north and west across the West Country, Wales and parts of the West Midlands/NW England, eventually into Northern Ireland and Western Scotland by evening. These storms will be slow moving and could produce a lot of rain leading to the risk of flooding. Temperatures in these regions will be around the mid to high twenties with high humidity, so it will feel very warm or hot. Storms continue across the far west of the UK into the first part of the night. Not all areas will see these showers and storms, they will be scattered in nature (and this will be the form horse across the entire 4-5 day period). I have highlighted this area in yellow on my map. To the east of this will be a tongue of hot, humid air bathed in sunshine allowing temperatures to rise into the high twenties, maybe even reaching or exceeding 30 degrees in a zone from London across the Midlands and into Northwest England. Here there will be a stronger cap in place, and it is quite plausible that storms will not develop, leaving the area dry. This more especially the further south and east one goes. However, if temperatures can exceed 27-28 degrees (which is quite likely) then a few isolated storms could break out and where they do they have the potential to be intense with frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential rain. The caveat to this is if cloud from the system further west or running up from the south affects sunshine amounts and reduces the forecast daytime temperatures. If this happens then the cap will remain intact and thunderstorms will not break out in these areas. I have highlighted this area as orange on my map. There is some divergence between high resolution models with regards to activity in the orange box but good agreement on the risk of storms further west (yellow box). Sunday – 11th June It looks currently like storms will generally be more widespread than on Saturday. For the morning there will probably be some cloud and showers across Wales and the West Country with some pockets of rain but also some very warm and humid sunny spells. Areas further east will see sunshine and the heat building again from the word go. By early afternoon the first storms look likely to break out across Wales and the West Country and these could be intense with torrential rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds (I have highlighted this area yellow on my map). Further east scattered thunderstorms are likely to start breaking out through the afternoon. Currently the models are still not sure on where will be mostly affected but the central spine of the country, especially from north of London, through the Midlands and up towards the Pennines looking a good bet. These storms will be forming in an area of 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE and so any that form could be very active with a lot of lightning. They may also form into a line along a north to south aligned convergence zone through the central part of the country and this will push slowly westwards through the West Midlands and North-west England. Storms may then rumble on into the night across Wales (this is the orange area on my map). Monday – 12th June By Monday is a great deal of uncertainty but it does look like Monday could possibly be the most widespread day of thunderstorms. The ECM model shows some particularly tasty storms across the entire western half of England, Wales and Northern Ireland but this zone could easily be further east or further west. The entire forecast could change with it being 3 days ahead and so I won't go into too much detail. By Tuesday it appears that the storm risk will be transferring westwards as drier, more stable air returns with maybe only Ireland at risk by this stage.

As we get to within the 48-72 hour time frame I am now starting to get quite excited about the prospect of getting out storm chasing again over this coming weekend.

Locking this thread now as we have a brand new thread for June here

Here is a brand new thread for all your UK storms and convective weather posts for June. We are going to be trialling a different method, with a storms thread for each month during the convective season to see how it goes. After a rather stormy first half to May the second half became very dry with some parts having now seen no rain at all for 3 weeks. In the near future there are no storms or rain on the horizon with dry weather guaranteed for at least the next 5 days. Longer range forecasts do point to the chance of more storms as we head towards mid June. Eventually the pattern we are in has to break and we'll have something to talk about in here again. So, carry on and let's hope for some convective weather for those who want it. Old thread here

The GFS 00z Op is once again one of the coolest members for a weeks time, as is the Control. It seems the Op wants to keep churning out the coldest option. Most seem to keep T850s around the same as we have now, maybe a little lower. Looks to me like a week of sunny, dry weather with temperatures in the low 20s following a cooler blip over this Sunday/Monday. Maybe reaching the mid 20s through the second half of next week for some western areas. That nagging and persistent easterly breeze keeping Eastern coasts cooler. These conditions quite likely persisting into the following week.

If I remember rightly it took until mid June for 25⁰c to be breached in 2013 after what was a very cool/cold spring. There was still snow patches remaining in the Peak District at the end of April. Then came a month of sunshine and heat before some awesome thunderstorms on the 22/23 July. There is still plenty of time for heat. I'm hoping from a personal point of view that I won't have to wait too much longer. For now it's not bad at all here, unbroken sunshine and temperatures in the high teens with a very light breeze.

Agree that this was a great storm. I was out all night between Winchester and Basingstoke watching and chasing it.

At first glance it could look like a funnel cloud but it's most likely just scud.

It's taken a while to edit as there was a lot of driving in "nothingness" to edit out and also been busy with work commitments since the chase. But here is my video from my storm chase on Tuesday 9th May. Chasing pulse storms is difficult but I'm happy with this month so far from a storm perspective. I am hoping for some good thundery plumes or at least more organised thunderstorms as we get more into summer.

Attempted a chase today into north Notts and then Lincs. Plenty of heavy showers and photogenic skies but no thunder or lightning today. If I had been about 40ish miles east towards the east coast I would have probably had a treat, but I didn't get that far. 2 successes and 1 bust so far in 2023. I can't win them all. Back home now, going to start editing yesterday's footage.

My windscreen was fine . The floodwaters were my biggest concern to be honest. Still uncertain whether to chase today. It doesn't look as good as yesterday. I won't be doing any long distances but may be worth me taking a trip out if something develops locally.

If i remember from previous reading i have done. A positive lightning strike sounds like a sudden explosion rather than a long rumble. To look at, a positive bolt looks smoother as it is composed of just one stroke, whereas a negative strike has multiple strokes.

A busy chase day yesterday with LOTS of pulse storms to deal with. Again, it was at times frustrating to reach a cell just for it to pulse out. On the plus side, reaching the cells was not difficult as they weren't moving fast. Most of the storms I witnessed were from a slight distance away and so offered me cloud structures, distant CG lightning and thunder. A lot of heavy rain with lots of feint intra cloud lightning and then a sudden bigger flash and big boom. The highlight was as a storm actually broke out just a couple of miles to my north and so I was able to get into it and drive through an impressive hail core. I'd say the hail was about 1 inch in diameter and it was coming down fast enough to turn the roads icy. I cannot remember exactly where it was as I covered a lot of miles yesterday and my ageing brain isn't great at remembering details. I'll know when I edit the footage. Another thing there was a lot of was flooding. These storms were dropping a lot of water. Ended up travelling all the way from my starting point near to Nuneaton down into Hertfordshire. But by then the main storm activity was becoming further and further southeast and so I headed back home again. Not bad at all to have done two decent storm chases by the 10th May, with the possibility of a third chase today (depending on latest forecasts etc). Makes up for the lack of any real warmth so far this spring. Edit: Hailstorm was just southwest of Desborough, Northamptonshire.

Currently between Ashby and Atherstone eyeing up the cells to my west on radar. Was on route to further south but made the decision to stop and see if these could deliver.

I am planning on chasing tomorrow if it still looks good in the morning

Thanks Arnie. Haha, the good old red telephone box. There are still a few round here, they are being used as mini libraries. No UK storm chase is complete without one

Here is the video from yesterday's storm chase.

It has been a good day for widespread storms, although the pulsing nature of them was frustrating at times. The storm in that photo died out before it reached me. Still a good day though and did get under a pretty nasty storm earlier in the afternoon between Howden and Pocklington with some hail and CG lightning.

Photogenic storm moving over the Humber