Supacell

Well, what a wet month we have just had. The weather may not be changing at all for the new month but our storm discussion thread is. And so what of the chances through August? Well, early signs are showing a return to summer but this is a long way off yet. From a storm enthusiasts point of view a return to warmer temperatures, and certainly winds from a more southerly point, are a positive sign as this is a weather pattern that can produce our best thunderstorms. This Atlantic low pressure chain that we are under can and does produce thunderstorms in the summer months though, this will be the case within the next 24-48 hours. Where today should stay storm free across most of the UK there is an unseasonably deep area of low pressure approaching from the west and this could bring thunderstorms across Ireland later on this evening before a band of thundery rain moves through England and Wales overnight. Tomorrow then looks like a day of heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially across Central and Southern parts of Wales and England. I will let the more experienced and knowledgeable forecasters look at the specifics but it does look like quite a turbulent day tomorrow for both thundery downpours and strong winds. Continue discussions in here. Old thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99001-storms-and-convective-discussion-july-2023/

A thin line of heavy showers has broken out just to my south. BBC has me with a 71% chance of thundery showers at 6pm but I'd be shocked if it happened. Certainly looks like a downpour may be imminent though.

Video of the very fast moving hailstorm from early afternoon just outside Ashbourne/Hulland Ward. Overhead for not much more than 5 minutes.

I find the distribution of storms a strange thing. It seems like different places are favoured year by year. Last year i recall the south was favoured with places such as the Sussex coastlines getting numerous storms, and yet there was nothing around here until September. Infact the Midlands had very little. I know storm chasing was expensive last year as I had to travel a long way to get anything. Here in Belper, storms have been slim pickings since i moved here in February 2017 with nothing at all until the 24th July 2019 and then just 17th June 2020, 28th July 2021 and 9th September 2022. This year it's been the opposite way. The south has had very little but the Midlands and NW England has had lots. Here there's been more storms this year over Belper than the years 2017 to 2022 put together, although even now the stronger storms have stayed away. I dont recall a year with such a disparity in distribution though. Thankfully still plenty of time for more of the country to get storms as we are only half way through the storm season.

Haha yes. I'd need an F1 racing car and no other traffic to have a chance today.

Just had a brief but intense storm pass to the west of Hulland Ward with some pea sized hail.

I did, but at that time was living in West Yorkshire and so had a distance to travel to get to it and by the time I did I was behind chasing it from around Lincoln to Mablethorpe. The strongest part of the storm was to my south and always ahead of me and so even though I saw plenty of rain, flooding, pea sized hail and winds (very strong at times) I did not really get much lightning footage. There was almost constant flashing but it was very feint within the clouds. That storm is the benchmark for the UK, we've had nothing that severe since, but my position was much better for the 10-11th August storm. Infact, in terms of chase footage, the 28th June 2012 storm is below a lot of chases since for me.

And at the point that I looked away my camera caught this

The 10-11th August 2020 event was borne out of several days where temperatures reached or surpassed 34⁰c and CAPE values rarely seen in the UK. Interestingly this came off the back of a cool July, with just the last day of the month bucking the trend as a temperature of 37.8⁰c was reached, which at that time was the 3rd hottest day ever recorded. Yes I chased the storms from Stoke up to Holmes Chapel, stopping near to Alsager en route. I then headed back east and caught more storms were moving north through the Peak District. Frequent lightning and some beautiful CG's along with biblical rain. An event I won't forget.

I rate all the storms I chase and in all my years of chasing, the 11-12th August 2020 is at number one.

Two flashes and rumbles from a small storm that just passed over Belper.

Things kicking off to the north of Stoke. Unable to chase today though.

Video of the storm chase on Saturday. I haven't included the morning chase as it was rather uneventful in comparison. The video starts off at 5pm with me contemplating the evening whilst stood in the hills above Macclesfield. At that point the models were showing the Western side of the Peak District being favoured. Storms had already affected Wales, the Welsh Borders and Northwest England through the afternoon and were now breaking out around Gloucestershire. The 12z high res models then came out, showing the Eastern side of the Peak District, the East Midlands and Yorkshire being more favoured with the UKV and Arome both agreeing on an MCS moving NNE through the aforementioned areas.

Just been up the road to the Peak District and caught a storm. Started off heading in the direction of Ashbourne and then northwards alongside a cell that had developed to my west. I caught it near to Newhaven and it was quite photogenic, producing the odd flash. I didn't get long before the rain and wind arrived and so jumped back in the car and shot up towards Bakewell. I ended up going from chaser to chasee (if that's a word) as they were moving quickly and soon realised I wasn't going to stay ahead of it. At that point I saw a barn in a field, so I parked up and sheltered there (by now the storm had moved over). The storm produced a few flashes and thunder, although as the rain was crashing down on the barn roof I didn't have the best audio of the thunder. Saw a few CGs but only one definitely caught on camera. There was a point where I looked away and there was a big flash and boom of thunder, that could have been a CG. I'll know soon as my camera wasn't looking away. Storm was nowhere near on the scale of yesterdays, and I didn't expect it to be, but a nice little bonus chase. I have currently surpassed all my previous years for number of storm chases by the 9th July.

Hi Weather freak, welcome to the forum. If you click on the 3 dots to the right of your name and then click edit you can edit your post.

Could I end up going out after a storm again later? My plan was to rest today, but if they approach here then I'm ready to go

Great evening of storms for me to chase. Started off on the hills above Macclesfield where I had a great view of a photogenic storm to the west. Headed back east through Buxton and intercepted that beast storm at Chatsworth. Managed to stand out and film the storm approach whilst being bleated at by some Chatsworth locals (sheep). Some big flashes and CGs with loud thunder as the storm approached. One CG was very close with shotgun thunder. Soon after the rain moved in, it was torrential and accompanied by winds and so standing out in it was no longer possible. I ran back to the car and chased the storm through Sheffield and to the M1. Lots of lightning, torrential rain and gusty winds. Plenty of flooding too. At some points the rain was greatly reducing visibility. The best storm of the season so far. And all this was after getting a small storm near Worksop in the morning. Only downside is I could have seen the storm by staying at home, but I do prefer getting out and about.

Latest run from Arome also showing a similar MCS for the East Midlands northwards into Yorkshire this evening. Infact, although it also shows new developments to the west of the Peak District in the next couple of hours, it has shifted the main focus eastwards

Currently between Buxton and Macclesfield. Getting concerned that the modelled storms are those across NW England. If that is the case then i've missed them.

The worst/best is meant to be across northwest England and to the west of the Peak District.

Yes, at a guess. It seems to be where most models and forecasts are going for.

Caught a smallish storm just to the west of Worksop about an hour ago. Moved through very quickly but produced a few flashes and a couple of CGs. I am now just outside Retford but trying not to get drawn further east as my main target is further west. I do have a bit of time to play with though.

Good convective skies to start the day. Already been some cells over the Peak District, but they were moving way too fast for me to attempt chasing them. Good news is that the sun is out and so temperatures will very soon start rising quickly and in a humid, unstable airmass. I'm still not 100% sure where to go, but still thinking somewhere around the Western Peak District for late afternoon. Before that I will stay home and will something to crop up here.

Sad to see that Dan will not be producing forecasts anymore. Thank you for your expert insights over the years @staplehurst Tomorrow looks very interesting. Still could change but my initial plan is to stay close to home, or thereabouts, for the morning and hope the elevated stuff comes to me. If need be I could head slightly east but don't want to go too far as my biggest interest is west by late afternoon. I am thinking somewhere near to the M6 in the vicinity of Manchester or maybe the NW Peak District (hills above Macclesfield). I will need to ensure I have a decent route north though. Of course all could change by the morning and it will be back to the drawing board.

Seems to be a consensus amongst the models that the strongest storms may be tomorrow late afternoon/early evening in areas just to the west of the Pennines. Maybe somewhere like Manchester. However, it's a guessing game. The ECM is another model that is showing widespread storms for tomorrow. I will be chasing tomorrow but currently not sure of where to go. There looks to be multiple areas of thunderstorms tomorrow. I'd probably see something by just sitting at home, this more likely in the morning.