Supacell

The second week of September 2016 was great for thunderstorms. This year a rerun of that would definitely make it the best thundery spell of the year. In 2016 though there were big boots to fill coming off a very thundery June.

Well here is my latest piece of footage, taken on the 16th August around Lincolnshire. Not the most electrically active storms and a mere drizzle shower in comparison to some of the storms that are currently, and have been, affecting Europe. But alas, this is the UK and this is 2022. Need I say more

To me this looks like a 50% risk of a storm which could bring a risk of severe weather, not a 50% severe. Also the severe risk is for heavy rain/flooding. Considering the reports of flooding for some in the south over today I'd say this forecast has been proven correct.

Very true, the storms in the south today look broadly similar to those that occurred further north yesterday. So although it was worth it driving into Lincolnshire (even though I ended up driving further than planned), it wouldn't be worth such a long drive south. I think flooding by far the main issue today, much like yesterday.

I decided not to head south and instead stayed on the Lincolnshire cells after they suddenly sprung into life, unfortunately about 8 miles to my north and moving away. So I ended up chasing along flooded roads to eventually catch the "more active" part of the storm up. It wasn't easy as couldn't really drive fast on such wet roads. By the time I caught it the lightning activity was shown to have died out on the detectors but I was still seeing the occasional flash. That was how I would describe the weather. Lots of torrential rain, flooding and the occasional flash of lightning. Some periods of more gusty winds at times too, probably outflow from dying cells before new ones sprung to life nearby. Things did pick up a bit towards evening just east of Louth with a bit more lightning, and by now it was dusk so the lightning appeared a bit brighter. Having said that, it looked like dusk at 6pm! Need to check back through footage but I should have caught one CG whilst driving. Overall though, not a lot of T&L but not a bust either. In this rubbish year for storms, I guess beggars can't be choosers. It is the turn of the south today to see storms but I won't be chasing as I have other commitments. Rough guess, M4 southwards looks a good bet, especially the Eastern parts of southern England.

Apparently 23⁰c was the required temperature, which was hit. There are more storm developing to the south which could still impact Lincoln. However I think I am going to move south.

I'm still just halfway between Sleaford and Lincoln and would describe it as heavy rain on and off with the odd flash and rumble of thunder. Not very impressive really. Still early days but I'm not overly confident of anything that will get my adrenaline pumping.

Flash of lightning and rumble of thunder a few miles south of Lincoln where I am. L9ts if rain too.

Much better likelihood of more widespread storms today for the vast majority of people in England. Today is a day I deem worthy of chasing. My focus is going to be the convergence zone about 50 or so miles to my south that runs Bristol to The Wash. No problem with cloud here this morning it is wall to wall sunshine through a thin layer of high cloud.

Not for the UK it isn't

I'm thinking the exact same thing

Skies look very pre-storm here but forecasts are not that promising. However, there is much uncertainty. Do I stay at home or do I go out? What must a man do in these uncertain times

August 11th/12th 2020 are up there as some of the best storms I've witnessed in recent years. This year has been dreadful so far. I am really hoping something happens over the period of Sun-Tues as I will be free to chase should I deem it worthwhile.

Hoping a new thread brings new fortunes so locking this one now ️️ Please continue all severe weather and convection related chatting in here.

A new month and I think it is time for a brand new thread despite the lack of any widespread convective activity for a while now. The storm lovers amongst us will be hoping for something a bit more exciting through August and September than what we've gotten so far. Those living away from more northern and western parts will probably just be hoping for some rain. Nothing of any use on the horizon for storm enthusiasts or those wanting rain in the parched south, yet. It has to change soon, doesn't it? Keep discussing, good luck all. Old thread here (been running since May 2021, wow!!)

Haha, I was either committed or I need to be committed . It did look rather threatening this evening over Belper but yes everything is capped at too low a height for any chance of lightning. Same will be true over the next couple of days at least. Summer 2022 shaping up to be very poor for thundery activity. I hope August has something to offer.

A thunderstorm developed in Eastern Shropshire and been a few lightning strikes down Somerset way, so I take back what I said regarding the Met Office warning today.

I don't normally like to criticise the Met Office but i feel I have to. If they are warning about flooding from rain then it should be a rain warning and not a thunderstorm warning. A thunderstorm contains lightning. There was no lightning anywhere on Wednesday and so far no lightning within the warning area today. The wording used in yesterday's video forecast was "intense thunderstorms". There is no chance of intense thunderstorms today.

I believe the clouds will need to clear enough to allow some surface heating. If it remains cloudy I can't see anything developing along convergence zones. Looks like it is turning somewhat clearer from the south west though.

Yes it's been one of the quietest that I can recall, up to now. Still plenty of time though so hopefully things can get better in August, September and maybe even October.

This year is particularly bad for more widespread thunderstorms. Just a few places have had a storm but virtually all of the country haven't had a single rumble. Even with my storm chasing, this is the quietest start to a season for me in many years. Really hoping 2022 redeems the poor first half of the season with a storm filled second half.

I'm not a skilled forecaster (NickF did the forecast) but it looks from the radar that the drizzle across East Anglia is the remnants of last nights rain. It should clear through in the next couple of hours.

Storm forecast from Nick F for today Upper low will move east across S England through the day, associated colder air aloft will create steepening lapse rates, as sunny spells heat fairly moist surface airmass, yielding 300-600 j/kg CAPE. At the surface, a shallow trough will also move east, with one or two breeze convergence zones moving SE across E Wales and England through the day – which will be the trigger for heavy showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the afternoon and evening. Heavy showers, with isolated lightning possible this morning along breeze convergence moving SE across Welsh Borders, S & W Midlands and W Country, before heavy showers / thunderstorms develop further east across central and southern areas through the afternoon. Thunderstorms appear most likely from Gloucs/Worcs through the South Midlands and Thames Valley towards London and the Home Counties – drifting SE towards the south coast – with a 50% probability delineated here. Storms may train along breeze convergence – bringing a risk of localised flash-flooding – given hard ground following weeks of little/no rain. Also, storms may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds. Isolated to scattered storms also possible elsewhere across England and E Wales, particularly along the southern Pennines – triggered by orographic lift and across E England. Heavy showers/storms should clear/fade after dark. Issued by: Nick Finnis

Exactly. Many more hours yet for thunderstorms to break out. The last of the potential unlikely to clear far Eastern parts until late tomorrow.

If I had more confidence I would drive out there. At least I'd escape the heat inside my flat . But my confidence is low based on one model and none of the forecasts going for it.