Supacell

ECM 12z is showing some heavy thunderstorms moving from North Wales towards Merseyside and Lancashire during the early hours of tomorrow. I can't see it in any other models or forecasts so seems a strange output. I suppose anything could happen tonight. Its all a bit above my knowledge level.

Made it to 39⁰c here so my highest temperature ever and beating the national record from before today. Not a bad outing for a rural Derbyshire town. Peak temperature came around 1-2pm, has been dropping off since 3pm. Now 36.5⁰c.

38⁰c here now. New record for me. And only 0.7⁰c off the UK record

Just hit 37⁰c here. I reckon 40⁰c could be reached even in Belper. Crazy temperatures!!

Just hit 34⁰c here. Two and a half hours earlier than we did yesterday. Dread to think what today's maximum will be.

Temperature has gone up from 21⁰c to 25⁰c in one hour . Today is going to be baking hot. Temperature to beat for me is 37.1⁰c, a record since yesterday for here.

Got up to 37⁰c, smashing my previous record by 2.5⁰c. Partly looking forward to seeing how high the UK temperature can go tomorrow and partly dreading the trying to keep cool. It's been and still is hard enough today. Also wishing for a thunderstorm.

37⁰c here now. So still going up.

The wind is like a hot hairdryer blowing in your face. With higher temperatures and more breeze tomorrow, its going to be like standing in front of an open fan oven

36⁰c here, beating my own record by 1.5⁰c. Hottest day I have experienced in the UK. Went out for a walk round the block just to experience it. Incredible heat and very dry too. You can really feel it drying the eyes and mouth. Couldn't manage much longer. I'm 45 and not a fan of the heat unless its with thunderstorms.

One of those showers passed over Belper and not even a spot reached the ground. 34⁰c here now

Just hit 31⁰c here. Temperatures climbing rapidly. Don't think I'll struggle to beat 34.5⁰c today.

I wish I had been there! . But yes I have found August can bring some great storms. Hopefully this year does.

26. 2⁰c now in Belper just north of Derby.

Further south in Derby I remember the thunder rumbling away in the morning but there was no rain. Probably as the storms were just away from me. I didn't start storm chasing until a year later so made do with distant rumbles.

Went for an early walk at 6am with a pleasant feeling 18⁰c. Reached 21⁰c by the time I got back at around 7:45am. Two hours later its 26⁰c. Thats 2.5⁰c increase per hour. At this same rate it'll be 31⁰c by late morning and 41⁰c by 3:45pm Although I expect there will be some levelling off of the rate of increase. Still, almost certain to beat my current record of 34.5⁰c.

Managed 31⁰c briefly here this afternoon, back down to 29⁰c now with high cloud making the sun hazy. GFS quite accurate with temperature forecast for here today. After roasting in my flat last Monday with outside temperatures of 30⁰c and the windows open but curtains closed I changed tactics today. I opened all windows and my door between 6am and 10am then keeping my windows and curtains closed between 10am until 8pm. My flat does seem somewhat cooler as a result. Tomorrow with the earlier onslaught of heat I think 5am until 8am for opening everything and then shutting it all up.

Highest temperature I personally have recorded here in my location is 34.5⁰c on 31st July 2020. I don't think the record breaking temperatures from a year earlier reached this far north. I am thinking its an almost certainty I will experience higher than 34.5⁰c over the next 3 days.

I expect it is down to the position of the thundery low but i'm no expert. What I do know is that at this range there will be changes from one run to another and the best potential will likely move around between now and Tuesday.

Unlikely to be storms on Monday despite the building CAPE being shown on the models and the very high temperatures forecast. The atmosphere looks to remain capped. Things can change at this range of course but I'm not seeing it with high pressure in control. Tuesday is a different matter. Should it pan out as shown, with low pressure moving over the UK, there is the likelihood of some big thunderstorms breaking out later in the day and overnight. Questions about timing, whereabouts or even if it will happen at all are still a way off from being answered yet. I for one am hoping that there are some big thunderstorms after having to suffer through 3 days of oppressive heat.

This is awesome. Both the charts and what it's showing for next week. Checked back on old posts and interestingly the heatwave of July 2013 ended with a bang for some on the night of the 22nd to the 23rd July. Nothing really showed up on the models until the 17th, just 5 days before.

A long way off but ECM also starting to show storms around Tue/Wed next week.

You are possibly thinking of a different summer. August 2020 saw the hot weather culminate in big thunderstorms across a large portion of the UK from the south of the UK up well into Scotland. In the Midlands they lasted overnight and then more happened the following afternoon and evening.

They are the highest temperatures I personally have ever seen on the GFS model, in 18 years of looking.

I think it was August 5th. I was living in Yorkshire at the time and there were severe storms which pushed north and east on that afternoon along a convergence zone. I think they moved into Newcastle that evening. I witnessed a funnel cloud on that date, as did a few people in Yorkshire.