Earthshine
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The Sun is a stable star. During the 11-year solar cycle, the solar output varies by around 0.1%. Compare this to the 6% difference in solar insolation during a single year (Earth has an eccentric orbit), the influence from the solar cycle is around 1.7% of this. It's a tiny amount. Sure, it can influence large scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere (great chance of northern blocking in winter). However, to suggest the Sun has boosted Earth's temperature by over 1C in under a lifetime is ridiculous. If this were the case the Sun's output would have to wildly fluctuate on tiny timescales.
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Ready for hot weather now. Last summer feels like a long time ago and I'm praying for a repeat (preferably not ending in August).
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Here's my ideal summer :
June:
Generally a warm and quiet month. Temperatures around 20-23°C in the south and 18-21°C in the north. Cool nights for the start of the month and generally dry (with the exception of some rain in the far northwest).
July:
Everything kicks off with a region of low pressure around the south of the UK with some warm or very warm air entrenched in it. Temperatures generally 24-30°C in the south and 20-26°C in the north. However, the highlight of the month will be the thunderstorms. Huge cells developing around France and then being dragged up on a very warm and humid south/south-easterly breeze. Some flash flooding possible and everything appearing incredibly lush and green thanks to the rain (in stark contrast to last July). Some very high temperatures (i.e. 35°C+) where we see a blowtorch-type Spanish plume.
August:
Hottest August on record with the first 20°C CET on record, ending a run of rather mediocre Augusts. Generally hot and dry, with the first 40°C recorded in the UK in the first week of the month. We will also see the highest night-time minimum temperature ever recorded, with a minimum of 25.4°C recorded in London. Temperatures 25-34°C in the south and 20-28°C in the north. After a very hot start, there is a thundery breakdown mid-month (but still remaining warm). However high pressure is never far and a huge blocking high over central Europe re-establishes itself, pumping some incredibly hot air out of North Africa.
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36 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
I just notice you seem to do this topper behaviour all the time. If someone says it’s cold here or hot here, you then throw in the usual ‘it gets much warmer over here’ or ‘10c is bbq weather for me’ response. Yes we get it! It gets much colder in dear old Canada, I lived there for almost 2 years, so I should know lol.
i just find your comments a tad condescending at times, even if you are using the sarcastic approach.
Canada sounds pretty terrible climate wise, especially in winter. Can you imagine getting frostbite 15 minutes after walking outside in winter? Absolutely desolate, much rather the more temperature climate here in the UK.
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How on earth people can enjoy cold and rainy weather is beyond me. What do people actually do outdoors when it's raining and cold? I can understand people not wanting blazingly hot sunshine for weeks on end but to want cold and wet weather, I struggle to understand.
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What an absolutely stunning few days it's been. Really good vibes and it's hard not to be in a good mood with such perfect weather. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the cooler weather is just a brief non-event before high pressure and sunshine returns.
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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
So here's a kind of summery (sic!) of my view of what the models and other drivers might be saying as we head into the second half of spring and thence summer:
1. A settled and warm Easter virtually guaranteed, thereafter a less settled spell, but looks short lived or even very short lived before a high pressure regime takes hold again, as per ECM 12z by T240.
2. Quite a lot of this looks like last year all over again, but there are differences, one is SSTs close to UK, these were really cold last year following the Beast from the East, but now are considerably warmer than average:
3. AAM is higher than it was hovering about last year at the same time, possibly driven by warmer Pacific (ENSO), plot shows AAM anomaly for last year:
Effect maybe to draw up a series of stronger ridges for UK than this time last year, if I recall correctly the very dry weather was more in the NW at first before spreading to the whole UK in June. If I'm not reading this completely wrong I think there could be more UK wide heat in May than last year.
4. Seasonal models. GloSea5 was strongly suggestive of a hot summer in March, toned down a bit in April, but still above average probability. CFS remaining steadfast in a high likelihood of a Scandi high throughout late spring early summer, and even further.
5. Some comment earlier re drought. I don't think this is likely to be a major issue because of the heavy rains rains in March, that is rain which will be able to percolate down to the aquifers fine without evaporation, which becomes a problem later into summer.
All in all, a very interesting late spring early summer season ahead, let's see how it pans out.
Regards
Mike
Any ideas on what (if any) impacts warm SST around the UK will have?
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I'm confident we'll be on the milder side of average for the rest of the month. Seems the region of high pressure to our east is robust and stable. Will be interesting to see just how much we deviate from average this month despite a rather cool start.
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2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
here is the mistake...nobody..not even so called 'climate change deniers' claim that CO2 concentrations have not increased over the last 150 years..not that i am aware of anyway..their argument is how much warming is caused by CO2 if any at all and how much is caused by other factors ..one thing to consider is we only really have 50 years of reliable world wide statistical data on the climate of our planet...Climatology compared to other branches of science is fairly young so we are filling in a lot of holes with our best scientific guesses based on the information we have to date..which compared to other areas of science is very limited indeed...so when people try to close the debate and say a consensus has been reached..which means there is no room for debate or discussion..then we are in a dangerous place..we may indeed be staring down the barrel of a gun..but is it the right gun??
Evidence suggests humans are by far the main driver for climate change. Until new evidence arises that suggests the contrary we can be quite certain that humans are causing climate change. Frankly the "evidence" provided by climate change deniers is rubbish and their beliefs are just that, beliefs (i.e. not grounded in reality). You can believe what you want, but I have a problem when people start conspiracy theories and claim they are correct. It's rather an insult to those who have dedicated their lives to climate science by stating they are completely wrong with no evidence to back up the claim.
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10 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:
hi Earthshine!
Got another potent GHG ( 300 times as bad as CO2) that is on the increase now we're melting our permafrost;
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190415090848.htm
If , via Arctic amplification, the Arctic is seeing 4 times the warming of the rest of the world we might expect our first 'Earth shocks' to originate there?
Hi Gray-Wolf!
Snowball effect underway then. Had a quick read of the article and I had no idea nitrous oxide has yet another threat. The problem is that since very few people live in the Arctic the full impacts of global warming aren't being felt by most of us (yet). I would not be surprised if the 2020s will be the warmest decade on record. Even now we are seeing disastrously low Arctic sea ice extents.
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Climate change denial only exists because people want to deny responsibility for the destruction of the environment. Sure, the Earth may have been warmer in the past. However, the planet has warmed by 1C within a LIFETIME! That's almost unprecedented in Earth's history! You'd have to be a madman to deny global CO2 concentrations have increased. Ocean acidification is another clear example of this. It's basic physics that CO2, CH4, etc. are radiatively active gases. It astounds me that people who frankly have very little education on atmospheric physics can discount scientists who have dedicated their lives studying it.
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1 hour ago, Sir Mim said:
Looking good from next Monday at least - cooler, with LP in charge, and that trend seems to be continued right through until the end of the month (at least on the GFS). LOoks like we won't have to put up with this "warm sunshine" nonsense for much longer.
How on earth is cooler weather "looking good" ? It's hardly going to be hot over the weekend...
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13 hours ago, Mattwolves said:
@Mike Poole you say summer in your opinion is May, June, July, but August is very often the month that throws up the most heat! So I would say very much a main summer month?
I'd even go as far as saying September is a summer month (despite being meteorological autumn). Sun is still quite strong and temperatures are generally similar to that of June.
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Is my 10.5C (I think) prediction for the April CET not out of the question then? I can dream! In the meantime just look at how we will see warm air being pumped into the Arctic. ecm500 (1).webp
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Currently running at 7.9C for the April mean at my station. Looks like next week may very well bump that a couple of degrees especially if the milder weather is sustained!
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4 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:
I have Raynaud’s phenomenon, my blood vessels constrict in the cold weather and my hands turn pretty weird colours, if I’m out too long my hands turn a reddy purple. I absolutely hate winter because of this, so I’d have to say my favourite weather is the blistering summer heat for sure
I have the same! Can be very painful especially in windy, cold weather. Unlike the majority, I can also sleep comfortably in temperatures 30C+ (indoor temperature that is). Perfect day of weather for me would be the following:
Morning: 15-20C and clear blue skies. Calm and the birds are singing.
Afternoon: Rising to 30-36C, a few cumulus clouds to give a little shelter from direct sunlight. Larger cumulus congestus clouds forming too in the humid air and instability.
Evening: Cooling off to 20-25C. Large thunderstorms breaking out and epic lightning shows.
Overnight: No cooler than 15C. Clear skies allowing for some astrophotography!
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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
They are perturbations, individual runs... Its unlikely it will quite pan out that way!! Those runs Indicate the best case scenario, so try not to get your hopes up to much! I mean I could throw this at you, doesn't mean it will verify though!
Yeah but the suggestion is still there we will get a continental feed of air is it not?
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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Looking at the GEFS 6z i'm seeing good signs, not just for easter but further ahead too!
Suggesting mid-70s! Proper BBQ weather that is. Do you expect we'll see quite large diurnals with that set-up (i.e. flow off the continent)?
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1 hour ago, SunnyDazee said:
It’s been the exact same all the way through. I can count 2 warm days since February. It’s not been a cold weather lovers dream because there’s been no snow and it gets up to 11-12 degrees in the day, but it’s been negatives at night, and not just in the countryside. The heating bills are gonna be through the roof. When you throw in compressions around this time last year we were getting 20 degrees at least for 3-4 days and now we’re getting 12. I’m in my winter coat a lot of the time and there’s a reason it’s a winter coat and not an april coat
Opposite here in the west. Today was sparkling sunshine and despite being only 12-13C it feels very warm in the strong sunshine. Not a cloud in the sky and fairly calm too today. Slightly more cloud into the weekend but still not bad!
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:
Looking at the GEFS 00z Easter could be very pleasant
Looks brilliant! Been fairly sunny here the last few days but that wind is biting! Nice to see something a little more benign for Easter!
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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
I usually expect April to be similar temp wise to Jan and Feb, April wind comes from E/NE, Dec to Feb it comes from W/SW
Um, I'm pretty sure the average April high is around 12°C when in Jan/Feb it's more like 6°C?
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Think I'm going to be way, WAY off the mark with my CET predication for this month. Looks set to get even colder over the weekend before a (rather slow) trend back towards average.
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Interestingly enough, May 2018 brought one the most incredible thunderstorms I've seen in years. Overnight the sky was like a disco, completely ablaze with electricity. Although I agree on the summers themselves in recent years have been lacking.