Earthshine
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On 08/09/2018 at 13:01, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
I always find good summers finish early, say last week of July, perhaps a bit later in the south
has to level out, and we have to pay for the summer during Aug and Sept, a poor summer though, should lead to good Aug/Sep
Don't understand this logic, we don't have to "pay" anything weatherwise. There is no good reason why the hot spell could not have continued apart from chance.
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I think it has exceeded UV 9 in parts of the UK in exceptional conditions. I experienced close to UV 16 in the blue mountains in Jamaica a few years ago and I can tell you it hurt!
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On 04/09/2018 at 14:22, DiagonalRedLine said:
September - Like a few others, a mostly warm and settled month. Second week of September would be baking hot with long drawn winds all the way from Africa and temperatures reaching 32*C. Even Northern areas would see temperatures reaching close to, or around, 30*C. But would fairly quickly break down into some extremely powerful thunderstorms with large hail and torrential downpours. Some burgers and meatballs mixed in with the rain and hail too. 3+ lfpm (lightning flashes per minute). There would be one or two odd brief chilly spells with some very potent unstable Northerlies offering showers of heavy rain and hail. And some morning ground frosts with patchy mist and fog. On the whole, it would be a sunny month.
?
October - Starting off very warm with Southerly winds and sunny skies. Temperatures ranging between 25 to 30*C in the South, and 23 to 28*C in the North during the first week. Things cooling down significantly during the second week with winds quickly backing from the North and North-West. Some very squally cold fronts with rain so heavy, there would be enough evaporative cooling to allow for some backedge sleet and wet snow to fall to some fairly modest levels. And not just in the North. Though the Northern hills would see a good covering. Nights very chilly with minimum temperatures getting as low as -3*C and the weather being blustery at times with some Autumnal storms. One storm would provide wind speeds peaking 85 mph over wide areas of the U.K. Warming up again towards the end with long sunny spells, though nights would still be cold with some ground frosts in places. On the 29th, a very strong blocking High Pressure system would be established in the Northern Atlantic allowing freezing air to be dragged down all the way from the Arctic. The U.K. would see its most potent Northerly flow it has ever had in October. The air would be so unstable with lots of little disturbances that hail and snow showers would be widespread. The flow being strong enough for blizzards in places. Maximum daytime temperatures no higher than 2*C in the South and 0*C in the North! By Halloween, everywhere will see a covering of the white stuff. Winds will have died down and there would be thick fog in places on Halloween.
November - The first week would see a strong High to the East over mainland Europe with warm, or possibility hot, conditions. A very unusual super deap seated Southerly flow will ensure some temperature records are broken. Temperatures peaking to 28*C in the South and 26*C in the North. But despite the flow being from the South everywhere would see wall to wall sunshine - even in the West! A breakdown from the South-West will lead to some spectacular storms with torrential downpours of rain, hail, burgers and meatballs. A cooler second week with some spells of heavy rain and torrential showers of rain and hail. One or two nights cool enough to allow a light ground frost in places with one or two misty mornings. One or two strong Atlantic storms with some intense cold fronts too. Then a mixture of cold and mild days in the third week, but mostly dry and sunny with morning ground frosts. And patchy early fog. Though thick fog would linger for one day that week. Last week will see winds turning to the East and North-East with Low Pressure over Southern UK. Cold and cyclonic. Everywhere, even in the West, seeing hail, sleet and snow showers as well as longer spells of heavier snow. Especially from disturbances in the East and from Atlantic fronts trying to bump up against the freezing air. Eastern areas seeing up to 2 foot of snow by the end of the month. Central areas seeing a foot with Western areas seeing similar amounts.
I have to say this would be almost dream-like, surreal. The perfect season in my eyes.
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I can't wait until I get a summer of lots of sunshine and temperatures between 22 and 28 degrees Celsius by day. Wonder how long we'll have to wait to get a hot summer here?
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I don't understand why people deny climate change is happening. These same people are quite happy to accept atomic theory and gravitational theory but for some reason the theory of climate change is a no-go (despite the vast majority of climate SCIENTISTS understanding that AGW is real and serious).
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Does anyone know what the mean UK temperature was this summer? (Not CET).
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10 hours ago, Nath said:
Overall we had an amazing summer, a bit too amazing for me at times I will admit. (Had to buy an AC unit to avoid melting lol)
If we get a nice "Indian summer" that will be the icing on the cake for heat fans surely!
I hope that next summer is better here! Love for some proper heat (didn't reach 30°C here this year unfortunately).
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Another grey and blusterly day here. Absolute garbage, really hope September is a better month.
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Just now, stainesbloke said:
Certainly some odd people on this forum! It’s still peak holiday season, feel sorry for all those wanting to enjoy outdoor activities, absolutely foul out there today.
They can enjoy 9+ months of cool weather. How depressing must you be to prefer cold, grey weather over warm, sunny weather?
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6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
13C here at 13:40, that’s diabolical for late August. I’m sure all the summer hating miseries on here are loving this
How anyone could prefer weather that makes outdoor activities miserable is beyond me!
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Weather started going downhill here from mid-July onwards. May and June were by far the best months. August has been pretty abysmal with the exception of two days.
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1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:
Thoroughly enjoyed the last couple of days with the cool north Atlantic air, my sinuses have cleared up, I can breathe better too without that subtropical mucky air.
Hate the cooler weather. Had to wear a light jumper today (shock, horror! ). Guess the weather is balancing itself as they say.
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51 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
At times like this when model uncertainty reigns, I'm minded of the often trotted out mantra in winter, of the models smelling the coffee. So instead of trying to interpret the 12z suite meteorologically, here's my take on what they are 'smelling':
ICON - Nescafé Gold blend - quick to high to NE, short run though.
GFS - Americano - what we used to call 'coffee' pre Costa, Starbucks etc - decent run.
UKMO - Espresso - goes in right direction, very short though.
GEM - rotting left overs of a doner kebab the next day, with brown lettuce.
FV3 - filter coffee with extra cream, great run.
ECM - a turpentine and Evo-stick mix - preposterous run.
FIM9 - bog standard decent coffee from a Wetherspoons pub, with free refills, decent run.Notwithstanding that it seems the runs favouring the build of high pressure through the UK and then NE look similar, the ones that don't favour this look very different. I'm still going for the settled early September.
My barista senses are tingling...
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Anyone else feeling more confident this year that winter will deliver? The weather has been strange this year up until now and with us heading into solar minimum the odds must be moving in favour of a cool winter?
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2 hours ago, cheese said:
And per my previous response I don't agree with that. I think a 25C day with 60% RH will feel more humid than a 30C way with 50% RH, even if the dew point in the latter case is higher.
To use yesterday as an example, for most of the afternoon Linton on Ouse was around 22C with dew points of 16C. That translates to RH of 68%. It was probably similar in Sheffield. That is not at all unusual for the UK.
A dew point of 21°C will feel more humid than a dew point of 16°C. There is no denying that. The temperature could be 10°C with 90% humidity (which looking at RH alone would be considered humid) but that will not feel more humid than 25° with 60% humidity.
EDIT: Apologies I just realised that I meant to write 25°C with 70% humidity. You are correct that 30°C with 50% humidity will feel more humid than 25°C with 60% humidity as the dew point is higher.
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10 hours ago, cheese said:
Interesting. 30C with 50% humidity definitely feels hotter than 25C with 60% humidity but I don't think it necessarily feels more humid.
The point I'm making is the higher the dewpoint the more humid it will feel. It's not common in the UK for dewpoints to be particularly high so it's not wrong to say most summer days don't feel humid.
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43 minutes ago, cheese said:
Because it's true, and you can confirm this by looking at historical weather data - no offence intended but nearly everything you post is based on what you feel rather than anything certifiable.
As an example, 22 of the past 30 days at Linton on Ouse have had average humidity levels greater than 70%. Last July, 25 out of 31 days had average humidity levels above 70%, 19 above 75%, 11 above 80%, and July 2017 was just an average month. Indeed, it is during summer heatwaves that humidity levels tend to be at their lowest, with dry air being more conductive to high temperatures.
I always found dew points are more useful than relative humidity in terms of determining how humid the weather will feel. For example, 30°C and 50% humidity will feel more humid than 25°C and 60% humidity.
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15.6°C and 66mm of rain please!
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17 hours ago, Harry233 said:
Would like to see a spell of warm sunny weather in September at some point but also some proper chilly nights. Last September failed to deliver that, it never exceeded 20.C at the coldest night was only 4.C.
Last September was terrible. I think Braemar would be the place for you during September 2015 where are diurnal temperature range of 25.3C was recorded.
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22 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
No thanks. That would mean a mild winter, which I hate.
How about a September like 2006 then followed by a winter like 2009/2010
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5 minutes ago, CheeseAndOnionCrisps said:
I'd like a settled, fairly sunny and mild September this year. Rain, wind and Atlantic garbage can wait until October.
Completely agree.
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Fair enough - but I would say you did invite a response by saying September is a month is it not !!
I would not be surprised if we had a pleasant September however ....
I'm starting to think it might make more sense to refer to the meteorological definition, considering this is a weather forum . A repeat of 2006 where September sees a return of hot temperatures would be welcomed with open arms by myself!
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33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Meteorological summer is June, July, August
Astronomical summer is summer solstice to autumn equinox, so even that definition doesn't consider the whole of September as a summer month.
That logic doesn't work because it wouldn't consider the entirety of June as a Summer month and we can all agree June is a Summer month. Regardless, I was simply asking what September may bring weather-wise. I don't want to get into a debate about what people consider Summer or not.
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37 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:
Gosh that’s a loaded statement- I would say most definitely not , we can still have summer like weather in September- but it’s not a summer month definitely Autumn!!
Summer ends on the 23rd of September so plenty of Summer left. I'd say September is a Summer month as average temperatures are similar to that of June. Regardless, I'm not here to debate when Summer begins and ends (the Meteorological definition is arbitrary and only really used for statistical puposes).
I would not be surprised if we had a pleasant September however ....
Short range model discussion - into 2018
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Can I ask where you find the visible satellite images? Thanks.