Earthshine
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Posts posted by Earthshine
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15.8C and 20mm please
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2 minutes ago, SunSean said:
I wonder if for some counties, 2023 will be the dullest or one of the dullest on record? Spring was exceptionally cloudy for most and Summer has also been exceptionally cloudy for most, barring June. If September follows the low pressure dominance pattern, and seeing the models agreeing that the end of August marks the return of low pressure, it seems like September may also get stuck in the same pattern. Guess we all now have an idea of what it is like to live in the Faroe Islands!
I don't want to know what if feels like to live in the Faroe Islands though
we better get a 2011-style Autumn heatwave after this "summer". Does feel weird how we had a record breaking month which recorded a mean maximum CET higher than anything recorded in 2019 and yet the summer feels like a write off.
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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:
I just look at the projected max and min values daily for the CET zone and go from there. Any comments about a range of outcomes may be governed by comparison to other guidance, or my hunches about whether trends are real or not so real. With this cooler turn after middle of next week, I could see that going either way. But on the current numbers, I would go with lower end of your estimates, mean max today to 31st will only be around 19.5 C. The month could quite easily finish as low as 16.5 at this rate (after maybe making it to 17.3 mid-week). I think low 17s still have a chance if that cooler trend is overdone. EWP also looks to be on its way back down from higher estimates, 75 to 95 mm is the range of estimates I've seen in recent GFS runs.
Brilliant, thanks Roger. I think I share the view with many others here that your analysis on all things CET and temperature here in the UK is absolutely fantastic and really insightful!
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57 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Then there's folk like myself - I get both S.A.D, alongside prolonged lack of sun/warmth making my auto-immune issues (arthritis and IBS) flare up alot.
It's not purely a case of preferring summery conditions because it means beach, beer gardens and sun tans! Although...all those things as well haha
That is fog! Reminds of when I visited the Black Forest in Germany in early December. Very similar look. Atmospheric and positively spooky in winter in the Schwarzwald...utterly grim in mid August on the English coast.
Yep today is another write off - still foggy.
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Yet another dire "summer" day in Exeter. What a joke.
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What a kick in the teeth this chart is... looking forward to seeing the back of this summer and trying again in summer 2024
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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
Outlook is quite warm for several days then closer to average last six days of August, can't see the CET getting much past 17.7 during this warmer spell and average is about 15 in late August so that would argue for an outcome around 17.2 to 17.5 C. A warm August but not exceptional if so. I posted a list yesterday of the 19 previous occasions when both June and August exceeded the July CET. This would be the first time since 1970.
Latest EWP estimate is 51 mm to now and at least 80 mm end of month, further rainfalls of 10 to 50 mm from east to west are predicted. If we do get an outcome around 85 or 90 mm Reef will move up and join current leaders snowray and leo97t in a virtual three-way tie depending on exact details. A chase pack will be back around 10 points lower than those three. Will post some scoring estimates to be adjusted at end of month in a few days if the trends continue as shown. An outcome above 90 mm would lead to almost determined scoring estimates as most of the forecasts are below 90 mm.
Hi Roger, how do you estimate the monthly CET? Do you use forecasted values for a couple of stations? I'd be interested to know what the projected maximum CET would be for August. My estimate for the maximum CET for the summer would be the following, dependent on the August value:
August maximum CET / Summer maximum CET / Rank:
21.0°C / 21.2°C / 22nd
21.5°C / 21.4°C / 20th
22.0°C / 21.6°C / 16th
A value of 21.0°C for August would amazingly put 2023 ahead of 2013 in terms of the maximum CET (21.1°C) and equal to 1997 (21.2°C). A value of 22.0°C would give a seasonal maximum CET of 21.6°C, putting summer 2023 ahead of 1984 (21.5°C). I think a maximum CET of 21.0°C should be reached this month. Clearly June carrying this summer enormously, putting it amongst some very respectable summers like 1984, 1989, 1990, 2013, etc, even in terms of maximum daytime temperatures and if ignoring the warm nights.
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I've been thinking about why forecasts have struggled in the UK this summer. One idea I had was that when you generate a forecast you use both the previous short term forecast (a priori information, "background") and new observations (satellites, ocean buoys, surface stations, etc.), which have respective uncertainties. The uncertainty in the background is really difficult to estimate and is strongly affected by climatology. I wonder if the extraordinarily extreme state of the atmosphere globally is screwing up the estimated uncertainty in the background and hence impacting the forecast upstream?
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This summer has broken my brain a bit. We had an extremely anomalous June - the hottest June on record in the UK with a remarkable mean max CET of 22.6°C (ahead of even July 2019) and yet this summer feels rubbish! I think it's shown me that I can accept a poor June so long as July is good. June to July 2019 felt much better than June to July 2023 despite 2019 having a lower overall mean maximum temperature. Really crazy year and not in a good way.
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Scampton recorded 24.7C on the 19th June 2005. In MIDAS there is a reading of 98C on 24/10/1973... definitely not suspect
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7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
I suppose if June had been July and July had been June, it would have seemed like a slightly warmish summer instead of the s*** sandwich that actually seems to be unfolding.
A CET anomaly of 2.9°C in July would have been fantastic: 18.8°C! I think mid to late summer being a right off makes or breaks the summer - even if the June is record breaker!
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Not a bad day at the office today in Exeter after the rain cleared
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Mega sweats from the ECMWF
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Anyone have any recommendations of countries with sunny and hot climates to move to?
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This is the model output discussion thread right? Not the "model output but not anything outside of the reliable timeframe discussion" thread? I'm aware it's not likely to verify but if anyone can point me to the rules that refuse unlikely charts please do. I mean we've had output charts for December here so forgive me for putting a 240 hours chart.
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GFS 12z is stunning for day 10
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Increasingly confident we'll have some banging summer weather next week
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2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
A definitive end to next weekend's warm-up now shown on the ECM ensemble, but it's still quite a bit longer than the one we've just had (charts show my backyard):
Yesterday 12z
Today 0z
Bold to say there's a definite end with the scatter in the ensembles!
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13 minutes ago, Don said:
Your guess is in with a shout after tonight's model output, that's for sure!
Surely not two 18°C CET August's in a row?? Perhaps the 20s is the decade that August makes a roaring comeback after being a bit lackluster since 2003. We've already had a 17.7°C and an 18.7°C August so far this decade.
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43 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
Current GFS would suggest (again) a fairly high CET outcome by 26th at least, 17.5 to 18.0 looks to be the most likely range. A slow climb after today for about five days, then a steeper rise as it turns hotter after Wed 16th. EWP not much change to report, heading for around 60 mm (by 26th).
Would probably be even higher with that insane ECMWF deterministic run. Incredibly widespread 850 hPa temperatures >=22°C
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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
EWP around 35 mm now, will add about 20 mm by 24th according to GFS (for 55 mm).
CET projection from 12z GFS run is around 18.5 C (I kid you not) with a slow rise at first to about 16.2 a week from now, then with near-record heat for about a week, daily means possibly into the low 20s, would be adding 0.3 each day (0.2 towards end with more days to average) ... so the question is not really where the CET is going but whether or not you buy into the GFS heat. I'm willing to take a sharp cooling trend around the 25th at that rate.
Bloody hell, c'mon GFS! Make my 18.4°C guess come true like you did with my 17.2°C June guess (almost)
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September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Mega sweats incoming, I'm revising to 17.1°C. think we will see another 17°C+ CET this month. Keeping precip the same