[The changing daylight hours thread]

1 hour ago, Dark Horse said:

Where was you in June? It was a sunny month here. Plenty of daylight.

Not in the UK!  Just my luck I miss out on the hottest June on record.  I definitely need to move abroad as soon as I can.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

It's been particularly cruel this year that the longest daylight hours have felt so dark.  I can deal with garbage from the Atlantic in Autumn, Winter and even Spring but July is where I draw the line.  Sunny spells can still feel brilliant but we are rapidly losing daylight hours and it feels bittersweet.  Always next year!

[Summer 2023 chat]

You know things are bad when you're looking to the third week of a month that hadn't started yet for hope

[The poor summer haters club]

Just want some calm and clear skies weather.  You wouldn't think it would be too much to ask for a couple of days in July!

[July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Missed the mark with my 18.0°C for this month amazing how we've had such intense heat further south and if that boundary between warm and cool was just a bit further north we would be in for a very interesting time

[August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

18.4°C and 55 mm please

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

GFS OP brings the furnace in for August.

[July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

37 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think you misunderstand my post. I'm talking about comparing this July with July last year. 

 

Ah my bad, sorry!  Yes it's been one hell of a front-loaded summer so far.  

[July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's looking more and more that's it going be one of those occasions  where there' s a contrast between this month and its predecessor last year.

July 2006/2007, August 1911/1912 were spectacular  examples for summer. 

Other examples

January 1795/1796 for winter

March 2012/2013 for spring

November 1993/1994 for autumn 

We just had the hottest June on record.  Don't think it's quite that extreme.  And we are only halfway through summer

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

Bloody hell.  Had better weather back in February!

[Summer 2023 chat]

This Weather is seriously depressing me now.  Work is stressful but warm sunny days always take the sting out of it.  Want to hide in a hole until we get some proper sunny weather again.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking back at week 17/24 July and after 28 June, the daily 46 showed high anoms across U.K. only once (29 June) 

Whilst it didn’t show low anoms until 5 July, it wasn’t a poor prediction. It was only post 4 July that the model picked up that temps wouldn’t be warmer than average post 17th. 

I just think that the model has trended worse for July conditions as the month has gone on but as a forum, we weren’t receptive to that. early July was a bust in general I think  

Quite telling that the first week of July being a bust still managed 30 degrees.  Mean temperatures are actually running above the 1961-1990 mean remarkably.  Undoubtedly the marine heatwave from June keeping what would be a very cool pattern much warmer near the surface. 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I wouldn't totally trust those charts @Earthshine if i were you.  They can be misleading at times.    

They certainly were a bit off the mark for July.  Late June they were suggesting a continuation of warmth.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Bloody hell, ECMWF 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly charts make for some seriously rough viewing for summer weather fans right out into August.  I'd suggest look away if you're after hot weather!

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Writing off the first 20 days of July?  Are we all looking at the same ensembles?

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Suspect it will all correct westward...

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

With a maximum mean CET of 22.6C, June 2023 would have been (with the exception of last year) warmer than any August since 2003.

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

On 20/05/2023 at 10:25, Earthshine said:

17.2°C and 85mm

First week sees the Iberian Low begin to influence our weather.  With warmer than average SST (particularly further SW) the warmth from here will pick up a huge amount of moisture.  This will be the theme for June, with the occasional building in of the Scandinavian High.  Sunny but frequent heavy showers, particularly as June progresses.  We see the new highest minimum mean CET on record, with a remarkable 12.5°C (beating 11.6°C in June 2017) thanks to high SST and large amounts of moisture.

A bit of a miss this forecast was we never really ended up with a scandi high scenario and I way overestimated the rainfall.  Minimum CET is only at 3/4th warmest on record at 11.4°C, so no new record there.

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

2 hours ago, Metwatch said:

If this June was to finish at 17.0°C, only about 75 Julys and about 40 Augusts will have been warmer, (give or take a few).

No September has ever had a CET of 17.0°C or above though.

Edit: One for @Earthshine , if we assume the Mean max CET for June finishes at 22.7°C, then only 20 Julys will have had a higher value, and only 12 Augusts will have been warmer.

Fascinating stat, thanks!

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

A question....

On the 8th the CET was 13.3c, on the 25th it was 17.1c ........... so in 17 days we gained 4.2c ... My question is.... what would the CET have been (aprox) if we had had the warmth all month that we had between the 8th and 25th? Would we have beaten 1846's 18.2c?

Mean since the 9th has been around 18.8C I believe.  A final value like that would smash the previous record.

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Maximum CET looking likely to go.  Ahead of 1976 by 0.6°C.

[June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Mean maximum a remarkable 23.1C now.  This is 0.6C ahead of the previous record in June 1976.

[Record Heat and IMO Regulation Changes]

Here's a thread where we explore the impact of atmospheric aerosols and whether they could potentially have links with the recent record heat observed globally.

Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments (2022):

Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments

WWW.NATURE.COM

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Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes.

 

Preprint on potential link between reduction in ship sulphur emissions and decrease in cloud brightening observed off the coast of SW Africa.

Detection of large-scale cloud microphysical changes and evidence for decreasing cloud brightness within a major shipping corridor after implementation of the International Maritime Organization 2020 fuel sulfur regulations

EGUSPHERE.COPERNICUS.ORG

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Abstract. New regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) limiting sulfur emissions from the shipping industry are expected to have large benefits in terms of public health...

Decrease in sulphur emissions accelerating warming in Europe between 1980 and 2018:

 

https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1606330

 

 

 

[Summer 2023 chat]

5 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Not really the correct thread for it but I still reckon we will experiment  with basically the same thing to cool the planet. There's a lot of conversation about greener aerosols being sprayed into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight out into space and cool the globe. The biggest concern is the upkeep, potentially being used as warfare and also effects on rainfall patterns. For example, what good are cooler temperatures if it barely rains for 2 years. It's a complicated issue but surprisingly affordable I've heard. I think we will see more of this being talked about in coming years. I can't say I'm for or against it.

Sorry, wasn't sure where I should post this.  Is there a climate science thread perhaps?  If not I can make one specifically about recent changes in aerosols.  Definitely an interesting problem.  More pollution and less warming or less pollution and more warming.  It's a lose-lose really.

[Summer 2023 chat]

Aerosols must be included in climate risk assessments

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes. Estimates of impending risk ignore a big player in regional change and climate extremes.

Reduction in atmospheric aerosols (pollution) likely to contribute to more extremely hot days across much of the world.  Changes to regulations on how much sulphur ships can emit (IMO 2020) a potential contributor to record warm SST across the north Atlantic.  I would expect more record breaking in Europe as the reduction in pollution is fully realised.