Earthshine
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Posts posted by Earthshine
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16.5°C to the 18th now. Mean maximum CET up to 22.6°C (1976 was 22.5°C).
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10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
That said arguably August 2020 could not be considered a good month. The high value was entirely caused by that extreme week-long humidwave and, besides the cool and dry final three days of the month, the rest of the time it was near-constantly unsettled.
I'd actually rate August 2020 worse than 2014, controversially.
First half of August 2020 was very good here. Although it broke down quite significantly in the second half. September 2020 had some good warm spells too.
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So far this decade we've had two pretty warm Augusts. 2020 and 2022 had CET values of 17.7C and 18.7C respectively. I wonder when we will see the next 19C+ August. If I were betting I would say before 2030.
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GFS 0z ends with extremely hot air perilously close to UK shores. If that cut off low was any further west we'd be looking at 40°C being challenged again for the start of July. Extreme heat is likely to build into Iberia so any plume setup will be far hotter than usual IMO
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Unbelievably my 17.2°C guess could be in for a chance here
do I go for the big 20°C next month though?...
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I know many people hate summer weather but I just can't understand the appeal of the second picture (mid winter) compared to the first (mid summer).
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Not sure how to delete previous post
mean CET has rocketed up to 14.2°C after yesterday's 19.7°C. this will climb quickly next week.
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Just now, Frigid said:
If the current outlook doesn't shift, then a 17C June looks likely. It would be the first 17C June since 1826.
Would be very impressive if it does happen, after a cool first 10 days.
We are very long overdue a 17°C+ June, particularly with such a warming climate. This century we will exceed the record set in 1846 of 18.2°C.
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On 20/05/2023 at 11:25, Earthshine said:
17.2°C and 85mm
First week sees the Iberian Low begin to influence our weather. With warmer than average SST (particularly further SW) the warmth from here will pick up a huge amount of moisture. This will be the theme for June, with the occasional building in of the Scandinavian High. Sunny but frequent heavy showers, particularly as June progresses. We see the new highest minimum mean CET on record, with a remarkable 12.5°C (beating 11.6°C in June 2017) thanks to high SST and large amounts of moisture.
Perhaps my 17.2°C guess might not be so outrageous after all...
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I'm definitely a lizard so the hotter the better for me
although anything over 40°C is a bit much IMO
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Didn’t realise the weekend had already been and gone (Without 30°C being reached). Must have blinked and missed it.
I need to find out where these guys get their crystal balls from.
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In Limoges, France today. Some cracking thunderstorms around, near constant thunder! Still a muggy 21°C right now.
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Looking like some very muggy later this week. Could see the CET rise quite quickly.
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Like I was saying before, this May is definitely up there with 2018 and 2020. Could be seeing close to 300 hours of sunlight in parts of the SW by month's end. Mid-twenties possible in western parts too.
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That's day 10 now of seeing lots of beautiful sunshine. Today is another stunner.
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6 minutes ago, danm said:
Crystal clear blue skies this morning, but in the east we will have some pesky cloud drifting in from the North Sea, so more sunny spells than wall to wall sunshine. Best of todays weather in sheltered western areas that are closer to the centre of the high and have less of an east wind influence.
Models this morning look excellent for the next week. The high pressure, instead of being centred to the west of the UK, drifts over us and possibly sets up to the east. If that’s the case, we’ll all warm up, and some pretty high temperatures could drift up into SE areas towards next weekend.
Even during this week we should start to see temperatures creeping up onto the low 20’s quite widely, rather than high teens/just breaking 20c
That would be excellent
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2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
It sounds like the west has had a much better month.
May 23 hasn’t been anything special in the east, and the storms have been non existent, apart from a few cracks of thunder.
2023 has been notable for one thing, and that is the cloudy and coolish weather that accompanies it, with also lots of rainy periods. Other than that, some milder periods with cloudy conditions.
I remember seeing a week ago or so 12°C in London under thick cloud and 20°C and totally clear skies further east. Don't see that often!
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I've thoroughly enjoyed this May. Excellent thunderstorms and plenty of just stunning gin blue skies. There's been some cloud in the afternoon which has probably brought sunshine hours down. I'll remember this May fondly up there with May 2018 and May 2020, even if the stats don't back it up. I don't remember May 2020 having excellent thunderstorms.
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This May is quickly joining the likes of May 2018 and 2020. The cold drab days feel like a distant memory now, we've had a week of near continuous sunshine here in Exeter. The cloudscapes yesterday evening were just gorgeous and we've had a fantastic variety of weather so far. If high pressure dominates until the end of the month this will certainly be a 9/10 May here (deducted a point for lack of hot days).
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41.1C is my guess
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17.2°C and 85mm
First week sees the Iberian Low begin to influence our weather. With warmer than average SST (particularly further SW) the warmth from here will pick up a huge amount of moisture. This will be the theme for June, with the occasional building in of the Scandinavian High. Sunny but frequent heavy showers, particularly as June progresses. We see the new highest minimum mean CET on record, with a remarkable 12.5°C (beating 11.6°C in June 2017) thanks to high SST and large amounts of moisture.
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New record minimum temperature this year: 27.5°C
June 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
That's assuming the June and July&August CETs are correlated physically. We are seeing unprecedented SST anomalies across most of the N Atlantic, up to 5°C above average. Even a Westerly type pattern will see temperatures much warmer and humid than you would usually expect.