Optimus Prime

The beast is lurking to the east I see. A low chance but it's certainly possible...have to wait and see

Not expecting much in December?

The traffic light system is rather ambiguous really, in the way it is perceived differently by different people. Watch how people drive and blast through red lights just as it is changing from amber. It happens all the time, a significant minority really don't give a sh.. and they think they are immune to death because they are canned up in a metal shell on wheels. We could try emphasising danger to life more quantitatively, but that might just confuse people. Ultimately, being free to do as you please and with no threat of punishment (such as curfews) that also means we kind of get the right to risk our own life's, and that of others. My only complaint is that I feel the NW was slightly ignored. It was really bad yesterday and the winds this morning have been ferocious with a few trees down and some damage. There should be a yellow warning out for wind. PS: I think the Metoffice have actually been forecasting this cold spell really quite well. The BBC seemed to be very slow to change.

North Manchester Perishing cold, gusty winds and cloudy with moderate snow. Significant drifting in places. -4.2°c WC -12.9°c

It's going to be close. The date record for the 28th Feb is -3.8°c. Last nights provisional minimum is down as -6.1°c. Today's maximum needs to come in at -1.5°c to equal that. After corrections it's certainly possible. Last time a winter record date was set was December 2010 I think (that year set several)

The indication from the ECM is the UK, NW Europe, Eurasia, Russia and Siberia will remain unusually cold for the time of year: The reversal in winds will probably see out the first ten days of March.

Everyone seems surprised. Which is strange because ultimately what the ECM is showing is plausible given the background signals. Northern areas are really going to be getting it hard this first half of March.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Mar 2018 to Monday 26 Mar 2018: A blocked pattern remains most likely across much of the UK, with colder than average conditions, but possibly milder at times in the south and southwest. Further bitterly cold easterly winds are probable, giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across some central and northern areas, but in the far north and northwest it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

If forecasting was that easy than why do we get predictions of snow wrong, time and time again? And if that was completely true, with what you said, why did the south coast endure one of their greatest blizzards on this day?;

What is it with people's obsession with that temperature profile? It's been said so many times before that we shouldn't rely too much on those temperatures for predicting snowfall.

Finally the BBC have started showing more realistic temperatures for next week; Now typically 3°c for Monday too.

I think there are subtle but noticeable signs within the long range forecasting that there is potential for a second record breaking beast to be unleashed week after next, and this is probably due to the second SSW event hitting us (two week lag) That for me is more likely than a breakdown of the general pattern.

Within a degree or so of the freezing mark doesn't necessarily mean a couple of degrees above freezing.

Slack flow and extremely cold surface air with deep snow for most of the UK. What's the record low for March again? Somewhere in the -20°c's I think. Perhaps challenging the all time -27.2c°c at some point over the next week or so...

A high-pitched ringing sound

ECM 12z still showing a kink running along the east flow across the country;

Current GFS run has the average for the 24th-28th as -1.2°c - around 5.6°c below normal CET to the 23rd will be around 3.9°c - 0.4°c below normal. CET will finish the month close to 3.0c°c before corrections. 2.4°c - 2.7°c will be the final landing zone. Probably the coldest month since December 2010 and 1.7°c below normal.

The maximum temperature for the start of March; As the model resolution increases, so the cold intensifies.

Week ahead - February 23, 2018 Weatheronline Coldest week for many years Disruptive snowfalls Issued: 1100hrs Friday 23rd February 2018 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Exceptionally low temperatures High pressure centred over Scandinavia unleashes a frigid Siberian air mass across most of Europe next week, with bitter easterly winds sweeping into Britain. Temperatures will stay close to freezing all week, and some areas are likely to stay sub-zero for several days. There will be some exceptionally low overnight temperatures. Disruptive snowfall is possible, especially in the east & north-east, but many places may well see snow at some point next week. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

An astonishingly cold and off the scale 850 hPa temperature anomaly across the majority of Great Britain on Wednesday: Indicating cold upper air temperatures ranging between -15°c and -18°c. Very close to January 1987.

That is, by definition, a beast from the east.

People like technical terms, and as a narrative it certainly adds an essence of extremity to things. So whilst a 'polar low' sounds great in this case it is incorrect; can't get polar lows from an easterly.

Might be wrong but a classification of a polar low is a rapidly deepening cyclone native to the arctic. Technically then they can only really originate directly north from us. Nice to see precip charts are picking up on moisture as we get closer and closer to the beast from the east. Proper skiing snow, powdery and blowing around in the wind with drifting for the areas exposed to the wind.

Start of the morning was quite chilly, but there wasn't a wind blowing, so as the sun rose and the day progressed it felt nice in the sun. This afternoon has become overcast and it is starting to feel quite raw in the dry, gusty and chilly wind. The temperature might be reading a not so cold 6°c but the wind makes it feel several degrees colder.

Simply put with atmospheric temperatures that low it wouldn't be dry. At that range though it's all rather pointless trying to surmise snowfall.