Optimus Prime

Thanks. This has been a real slug in downwelling to the tropos! That particular example is likely, at least in part as a result of the SSW.

People can only report on what they see. Go back to the old model threads and read up on the week(s) leading upto memorable cold spells (e.g 2013 & 2018). The model thread is a great tool in keeping a record of the drama/hysteria/science whatever you want to call it and reflecting upon it.

A similar situation occurred in Jan 2013 (just before the SSW?)

All anecdotal. I've been following both the BBC and the Metoffice objectively and they have both been more or less on a par. The outcome is far from unequivocal, and there remains huge doubt in the events leading upto and beyond Wednesday as a result of that depression exploding as it leaves the US Saturday. The temperature gradient between the cold and warm moist air is not an outcome easily deciphered pre Sat/Sun.

Doubt it. They aren't as primitive with regards to available data as we are.

Very current understanding from the BBC is for temperatures to be slightly below normal through the rest of this week and into the weekend and next week. Very typical winter weather. Next week sees a toppling area of high pressure nose down from the north introducing more fairly cold and frosty weather and perhaps some shower activity embedded in the NW flow; Hopefully this won't be the outcome. Still plenty of potential for the following weekend. https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/46900001

Similar to 2010?

The negative anomaly is amplified by the fact the mean is compared against 1999-2018. A somewhat distorted view because of that but the period is certainly going to be chilly.

So between now and then an appreciable cooldown in comparison to this winter before it before things turn more permanently cold from day ~22. Get the feeling the writings on the wall; this is often how historic cold spells start.

Looks like all pieces of the pie have come together and we finally have cross model agreement on drastic changes occuring during the last 1/3 of the month. Really interesting few months coming up after such an incredibly slow moving winter.

Equal numbers of mild and cold members generally with no clear direction. Getting the cold into the semi-reliable doesn't seem to want to happen yet. 2013 when it was like a rat up a drainpipe, this year that rat is an elephant and it ain't getting any closer.

Before or after 300 hours? lol

Time to wash that summer quilt by the looks of things. Winter 2018/2019 - flush it down the toilet pan and never speak of it again.

"Increased chance" - "Increased likelihood" how many times are these two words going to be repeated this winter? If you keep increasing the likelihood of something, over and over, doesn't the outcome become almost certain at some stage?

Lol, you're the 'lucky' one. It feels like the old donkey, stick and carrot routine this year. High expectations for the rest of winter though, those frosts can't stay away forever.

In that case, don't you mean 'negative feedback'?

It has been terrible so far. But when you say 3-4 weeks left, are you expecting the world to end or something? I suppose it will for some people if nothing happens between now and the deadline (mid April I'd imagine)

Looks like the CET will be around 3.5°C by the 10th.

So winter isn't over now?

I think Christmas has gone to people's heads in here. The above outlook describes well what we will have as weather for the next week or so. I'd be chuffed if that was my forecast. Nothing wrong with bashing a weather forecast or a public organisation for that matter but when the critisicm is clearly unjustified, and backed up with evidence that is contrary to the argument being proposed, you should be called out for it.

Probably a good sign

With a CET 9.7°C...I bet it was!

January was quite wintry here in the NW. Quite a number of snow showers at night. February was again, wintry. The bitterly cold spell at the end was ferocious, daytime temperatures below freezing and frequent blizzards accompanied with a very low windchill temperautre (>-12°C). This was the first time I had experienced a blizzard since 1987 I think. The second easterly snap later on was notable, again for the powder snow and low temperatures. On its own it would have raised a few eyebrows had it occurred during a winter month. April-May was very settled with lots of sunshine and some very warm temperatures. Summer was overall excellent. Long warm periods. The second half of August was certainly cool. September was nondescript (like most September's really) but the mornings were, at times, fresh. October: Very chilly end to the month. Overall, nondescript. November: ....promised some wintry weather but nothing really to speak about. Mostly very mild but with a brief cold spell and easterly winds. December: Another abysmal December. Yeah overall had an amazing first half in terms of variation, and this extended into July and at times during the first half of August. Apart from the cold snap at the end of October, a very poor second half to the year.

went back and read your previous post. seems to make sense.

Boiled or sautee?