Optimus Prime

Global 2m temp anomaly interesting at day 7. Serious cold running out of Alaska and Canada and in to North America. North America and Europe trend setting in for thr month ahead. Finally a proper February for cold for a change.

From memory, January 2009 felt a lot colder than the one just gone. But the greatest departure from average was measured in the SE where it was >1.5 °C below average and some unusually low overnight temperatures despite the lack of snow cover. This year there were some very mild CET days recorded there. Will be interesting to see how cold it was for Scotland. Perhaps 2nd coldest since the 90's after 2010.

Great looking 2m temp anomaly chart for day 7 (1981-2010 ref period)

Apart that weird high pressure forecast (That WIB also fell for) I think their text forecasts have been accurate. Wintry hazards, ice and short lived mild spells is what we have had. Yes their wording can seem very amateurish, but it needs to be simplistic to an extent for the general population to understand. They really ought to have a section directed at people who know a little bit about meteorology who can understand some of the more technical stuff. A bit like their long-range forecasts but in text and with diagrams central to the format. Netweather has a great section for learning a lot of the terminology and I think their forecasts are much more pleasing to read.

Estimated CET tracker to the 15th 7th 1.3 8th 1.2 9th 1.1 10 1.2 11 1.5 12 1.8 13 1.9 14 2.2 15 2.4 Obviously doesn't compare too well to the top 8 coldest 1st - 15th January months since 1960; 1963 -1.6 2010 -0.9 1979 -0.4 1982 -0.4 1985 -0.3 1987 0.1 1997 1.0 2009 1.4 …2021 2.4 (estimate)

I think it should be mentioned (as per CET thread namely; Realitivistic that whilst the 14-day period up to the 10th hasn't been particularly news / record worthy it will have almost certainly been the coldest 14 day period since January 2013 (~ 0.8 C vs -0.4 C) and is comparable to the coldest 14 day period in 2018 (Feb/March 2018), 1.2 C That is worthy of the very least a mention. Next weeks mild looks to have been watered down to an extent at present. Would be nice if this recent cold spell is a sort of calibration for what can be compared against for the rest of the winter. And at least this year there is some brutal (by modern standards) cold covering a large portion of Siberia. Might be worth keeping an eye on its westward progression.

Sea surface temperatures are well in to single figures (7 - 9 C) and this equates to 1.5° C - 2.5° C above normal:

That's definitely the coldest source of continental air available for the UK. But an easterly from Russia would eventually pull in very cold air also;

If he's comparing it by calendar month then the outcome may join December 2010 as being a month to record a negative anomaly since 1986.

Except this year, much like 2010, we have cross-model agreement. We literally have a full suite of variables that favour a feezing January and promising Feb. Just been through Birmingham which has been pasted, and the cold hasn't even had a chance to stagnate and accumulate. Very exciting prospects.

Current GFS run gives us a cold first week to January; 1 0.7 2 1.0 3 0.9 4 0.9 5 1.1 6 1.1 7 1.0 Over 3.0 C below 1981 - 10 average.

Good couple of centimetres here in Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. Feel a good winter coming on this year.

Checked out the metoffice forecast for Burnley, NW England....hovering around freezing midweek onwards and overcast A tad nippy if you ask me. Think December"s of the 60's and your not far wrong.

Would advise a quick glance over GFS 2m temperature anomaly WWW.KARSTENHAUSTEIN.COM Temperature anomaly maps Crude perhaps but notice the arctic is going from negative to positive. A response to...? We saw that in 2013. And we have the Siberian cold to go with it. The science in us certainly makes the brain wonder what is going on with our weather right now.

Remember, these models predict relatively very short ranges. The timing of this cold spell isn't exactly ideal with regards to data re:time of year (+pandemic) +an unusual shift in global weather patterns. The global temp anomaly is dropping, fact. Look at what's going on in Siberia and asia. Also, check out proper long range forecasting data presented in the ssw thread. It hasn't been this good since, eh well the last la nina/low sunspot combo. Can't believe that's over 10 years ago already. Time flies.

There are plenty of others that share your excitement. You're not alone

I'm trying to see sense in conspiracies and narratives with regards to the UKMO. They forecast the weather, they don't control it. How often do we get periods of sustained cold these days? Rare. It's the science of balancing probabilities, and regardless of what happens this winter, normality will resume. 2010, 2012 and 2013 are all examples of comparatively cold / very cold years bundles amongst the usual tide of persistent mildness. Regardless of all that, their most recent update is very sensible and is clearly indicating some unusually persistant cold for the foreseeable.

Yep. Looked at a number of the charts and didn't realise I hadn't clicked back to the 2M;

On closer inspection we have this; That looks very cold to me. Not far off early January 2010. Looks like some special weather is on the way. Makes a change.

Conjecture. Sometimes they get upgraded, sometimes they don't. Models do seem to be better these days at predicting upper atmospheric temperatures more than 5 days out, but ultimately the resolution fine tunes incrementally, it doesn't just suddenly get sharper and more accurate at a prescribed benchmark. Northerlies do require lower temperatures at that height because they are passing over a modifying ocean. Easterlies also get modified by the north sea, but to a much lesser degree and I believe there is more tolerance to producing snowfall at comparatively similar temperatures.

Except what you've just outlined goes completely against the science. The air in the Arctic is much warmer than it was even 20 years ago. And >40 years ago temperatures would be 1.0 - 2.5° C colder in the arctic regions. It's just a fact and this translates to less cold northerlies when the synoptics grant it.

It's like the current global debt crisis evolving. On the other side, expect there to be a considerable debt owed reciprocally as a net result for all of the fun (sarcasm of course) But that shouldn't detract us from enjoying it whilst it's here. 2050 could be a totally different story....

Is Harold someone we're supposed to know? Like, Ronnie Pickering?

10 years without a sub 0 C month is not abnormal. 1896 - 1939 there wasn't a single month below zero. 44 years and is still a record.

Dec 2015