Optimus Prime

Well the argument that I think is so crazy and out of touch is the one where we shouldn't be instilling fear in to the young. Naive and implausible deniability. jaffa cakes on the future of younger generations because we were fortunate to have been born early enough to not have to deal with the sum total of it all. The selfishness is incredible. Not wanting to give up all the crap we take for granted because we are noy willing to sacrifice it all for future generations. Imagine if that attitude were to be applied to a disaster such as Chernobyl.

Well that's cleared up a misconception I had. But can you source just a few articles demonstrating 'terrifying predictions'? Shouldn't be too difficult if we are being bombarded. I'm talking proper scientific papers with references. Personally I don't see it as alarmist information if it's a fact. Facts - almost half of all matter on Earth has been turned in to materials for human consumption. 1.5 trillion tons of CO2 has been released since 1850. The world has warmed by 1.2 degrees since the 80's, unprecedented in the Earth's recent history and it will exceed 1.5 very soon, Arctic Sea ice is trending downwards rapidly since the late 90's, tropical forests are retreating. Atmospheric levels of oxygen are in decline. These are indisputable facts. They are all worthy of much concern. Why should they be ignored and why is it alarmist?

You're making an example of one extreme scenario and using it as prophecy, now who's sounding religious? Almost all of the predictions, specifically James Hansen led, which predicted temperature rises predicted in the 70's to present day have more or less come to fruition. You can cherry pick data used in that analysis to refute this claim, but then you would be ignoring the ensemble mean which has been remarkably accurate and takes in to account multiple variables. I don't believe the world will end. That is ridiculous but it's quite obvious we will not be able adapt in time to avert the displacement of billions of the world's most vulnerable. It's always the vulnerable that suffer, that's why people like you feel they shouldn't need to worry about it. Be it not just climate change but social inequality the racist war on drugs, police brutality etc.

If that narrative is stating facts I.e humans are warming the world up far beyond any natural cycle could cause within the same time period, then no, because that's a fact and is not devised from denial.

You might want to read up on 'motivated reasoning'. It's a classic mental condition most humans suffer from. It's believing what you want to be true, rather than what would be considered rational or evidence based.

Be honest, did anyone ever expect the possibility of a December 2015? I wouldn't had thought so this side of 2040

Shall we also question the North American and Canadian records that have recently been obliterated? One of the reasons behind these temperatures are the insanely high sea surface temperatures present in Western Britain. Currently 4 or 5 degrees above normal.

Better to look at data at a more granular level but then where do you stop? By hour, by minute (if available) but it's a really good point. Thanks for raising that one.

1989 was a great summer. Also included 1963 (reference period 1931 - 1960) certainly a poor summer overall with August being particularly cool (18.1 °C, equal with 1985 but nowhere near as bad as 1986's 17.4 °C). Interestingly, the warm June's of the 60's were just 0.1 °C cooler than August's of the same period in terms of mean maximum.. June 1960 maximum was outstandingly warm, last time we had one warmer was 1976. Interestingly, the period 1931 - 1960 was warmer (by day), drier and sunnier than the period 1951 - 1980 in terms of the summer.

Table showing average maximum, rainfall and sunshine for June, July and August against the 1951-80 avg Clearly 1985 is the worst.

With a CET minimum of 10.9 °C for June, the first half of the year averages 3.9 °C. Coldest first half since 2013 (3.3 °C) There have been only 8 years since 1980 that were colder; 1986 3.0 °C 1985 3.0 °C 2013 3.3 °C 2010 3.5 °C 1987 3.5 °C 1984 3.6 °C 1996 3.7 °C 1991 3.7 °C

Mean minima is currently running at 11.6 °C (+2.4 °C) Maxima - 21.3 °C (+2.9 °C) The Highest maximum - 1976 (22.6 °C) Highest minimum - 2017 (11.6 °C) Certainly a chance of both those being broken this year. June 2013 recorded 13.6 °C so was a pretty cool month overall.

Detailed analysis of the weather experienced in the 1700's.

Up until the 1990's, the 1730's was the warmest decade in the Central England Temperature series. It measures 9.85 °C compared to 9.25 °C for the 1701 - 1730 reference period. The sharpest increase in warming was measured in January (4.5 °C vs 3.1 °C , +1.4 °C rise against 1701 - 1730). November showed the lowest level of warming at +0.1 °C (6.5 °c vs 6.4 °C). The warmest month relative to average is January 1733 at 6.9 °C (+3.8 °C). The warmest month registers 18.3 °C in July, also in 1733; 1733 is the warmest year of that decade at 10.5 °C. Looking at the temperature series, 1733 was to be the warmest year until 1834 when 10.51 °C would be recorded (and subsequently equaled in 1922). It would then take until 1959 to finally exceed this (10.52 °C) That period compares quite well to the 1990's where the decadal average comes in at 10.1 °C. The decade of the 1730's is 0.6 °C above its 30 year average reference period. Comparatively, the current warmest decade (2000 - 2009) is 0.61 °C warmer than it's reference period (1971-2000). The preceding decade was exceptionally cold; the 1740's averaged 8.86 °C or broadly equivalent to 2010. The warming spike of that decade can be clearly seen on the Met Office annual anomaly chart; The rolling 10-year average for the 1730's is actually a little higher than the next warmest decade, the 1940's (prior to the 1990's) Some interesting information can be found here; Britain's Little Ice Age: When Was It And What Happened? WWW.HISTORYEXTRA.COM The Thames turned to ice, gales flattened communities, and famine killed peasants in their thousands. Brian Fagan describes the climatic calamities that beset Britain from the 14th to 19th centuries as it shivered...

Is the final figure not 10.2? (10.16)

Major heat setting in once again over the crucial region of siberia.

The sea track distance between the continent and the UK land mass isn't anywhere near wide enough for it to be modified very much anyway. It really is a non issue if winds are directly from the south as that will eliminate clouds forming as a result of convection. Also, sea temperatures respond reasonably quickly to reduced turbulence and heating.

A selection of chilly spring mean minimum temperatures; (2021 - Assuming May has a theoretical average of 5.4 °C); thus the anomaly for 2021 (minimum) -1.7 °C below the most recent rolling 30 year average. Decadal averages since the 1880's Pronounced warming trend since the late 1800's.

WMO advises this as a baseline

Technically, with the mean minimum being by a decent stretch, the coldest on record, it's comparable to all of the other years that hold the top spot (1963, 1895, 1986, 2010 etc...) Should be mentioned that the mean maxima is bang on the average for the 61-90 ref period, but considerably below the most recent 30 year comparison.

Quite possible this April will have the lowest average mean minima on record (since 1878). It's 1.4 °C up to the 23rd (2.7 °C below 81-2010 avg) top 5 lowest mean minima for April (°C) 1.4 (1917) 1.5 (1922) 1.6 (1887) 1.7 (1892) 2.1 (1879)

For lowland North Manchester Snow - 2/10 Extremely dissapointing. Just a few days of isolated light snow showers which dissapeared due to sublimation. Cold - 5/10 It has felt bitter in the wind but there has been no ice days and nights were not especially cold. No visible frosts. When i saw that cold sitting over Siberia in Feb / Jan i was anticipating a proper spell of wintry weather when the easterly did arrive. The outcome was extremely dissaponting. Not a beast from the east here. 2018 was actually very good, even here in thr NW.

At -1.3 °C, the first half of February 1991 was the coldest since 1917, with 1917 being the coldest of the 20th century (-1.9 °C). Just slightly colder than 1947 (-1.2 °C). But it isn't true that the cold didn't last long in 1991. The last week of January averaged just 0.9 °C. from the 22nd January - 20th February all of the daily means were well below average and it wasn't until the 21st the milder air really made an impact. The remaining 8 days of February that year averaged 6.4 °C.

Yeah, and it doesn't need to be overly cold to give us a notably chilly winter Feb CET Winter CET 3.0 3.7 2.0 3.4 1.0 3.0 0.0 2.7 -1.0 2.4 Compared to recent cold winters 2012/2013 3.8 2009/2010 2.4 2010/2011 3.1 2008/2009 3.6 1990/1991 3.1 1986/1987 3.5 1985/1986 2.8

CET looking to track comfortably below average by the 9th (ICON data) 6 5.2 7 4.9 8 4.4 9 3.8 10 3.2 11 2.7