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Everything posted by Optimus Prime
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The Times: The cold snowy December of 1950
Optimus Prime replied to Weather-history's topic in Historic Weather
Not December 1950 related but 2nd - 6th Dec' 1962 averaged -1.1 C on the legacy series. That's pretty darn cold if you ask me. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Optimus Prime replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The snow depth charts are generally terrible at that range -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Optimus Prime replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cold is basically as good as guaranteed. The snow will be a nowcast thing. Multiple times in 2010 heavy snow wasn't really forecast until 2 or 3 days prior. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
Optimus Prime replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It does look cold once that north / north easterly sets in towards the end of next week The 1981 -2010 mean is slightly colder than the 61-90 mean fir December but the first half averages above the 61-90 (second half is below) so this anomaly suggests daily mean temperatures around freezing for the UK as whole. Surely means snow will fall almost anywhere where there is precipitation. -
The Times: The cold snowy December of 1950
Optimus Prime replied to Weather-history's topic in Historic Weather
December 1962 finished off at 1.8c which is severe and what followed was a sustained period of exceptionally low temperatures. -
Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions
Optimus Prime replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Measured against the 1991 - 2020 average. -
Rubbish. Nothing comes close to the warmth we get these days. The Guardian article states the 10th consecutive mild January and yet the January's of 1970, 1966 and 1965 were all below normal (3.7, 2.9 and 3.3); the 1966 - 1975 mean of 4.7 is mild but not exceptionally so (2013 - 2022 also averages 4.7) February 1966 - 1975 - 3.9 February 2013 - 2022 - 5.4 (!) December 1966 - 1975 - 5.0 December 2012 - 2021 - 6.0 (!) People try to pretend this modern warmth has happened before. It may have happened in small bursts but not every month and for 30 odd years.
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October 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
Optimus Prime replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If November and December both achieve values equalling the 1990 - 2021 avg (7.3 & 4.9 respectively) 2022 will end up 11.1, so just edging out 2014's 11.0 (10.95) A 2015 outcome (9.5 & 9.6) 11.7 (11.65) A 2010 outcome (5.1 & -0.7) 10.4 (10.43) Coldest November & December on record (2.3 & -0.8) 10.2 (10.18) A November & December combo of 6.5 & 4.2 equals 2014's 10.95. That's assuming October finishes at 12.6 and so cements 0.29 degrees celsius ahead of 2014. -
Very chilly NW Europe Very low sea surface temperatures observed as rightly said with regards to the cold August. The cold weather that had dominated the first 4 months culminated in very low SST's by the middle part of April (atleast relative to average) but then recovered between June and mid-July before dropping off between late July and early October. Thereafter recovering towards more normal levels but still chilly to the end of the year.
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"....winters....... now much milder than they were...."
Optimus Prime replied to Weather-history's topic in Climate Change
If only they were around to experience what we get these days. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Optimus Prime replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What's striking, apart from the obvious maximum temperatures across England, is the contrast between Northern Scotland and much of England. For the northern isles, Monday is a chilly 12 degrees which is a good 2 - 3 degrees below average. Compare that to the possibility of 40 for some parts of the south (16 degrees or so above normal). A potential 30 degree difference here from top to tail. -
Competition: How hot is it going to be?
Optimus Prime replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
London, Heathrow. 39.6 c -
The warmest June on record...June 1846
Optimus Prime replied to Weather-history's topic in Historic Weather
Global surface anomaly for June 1846 against 1850 - 1900 avg Looks like a real scorcher across much of Europe. Notably warm across NW USA & Siberia also. -
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
Optimus Prime replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
Optimus Prime replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
You're referring to the 1991-2020 baseline, not the 1979-2000 one. 0.44c above 1981-2010, 0.7c above 1971-2000 and around 0.9c above 1961-1990. The last cooler than average January, globally, was in 2012 (-0.14c 81-2010). -
Well one thing is for sure. A hideously warm end to another dreadful December. It hasn't felt like a winter month since the early part of 2012 really. The change from it being quite a promising month for cold prospects just a few years ago to being a drop in replacement for March really contrasts. I cannot think of a month that comes close to having changed as markedly as this one nor as rapidly.
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Optimus Prime replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Optimus Prime replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not really all that unusual to have high pressure dominating above areas of large land mass though is it? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Optimus Prime replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks briefly quite chilly with some wintry hazards on the hills and a little frost before the atlantic barrels through giving us a wet and windy start to the new year. Certainly no country locking, road clogging, village paralysing weather we were led to believe a few days ago. So if the weather won't lock us down I guess Doris and his circus friends will have to. -
December 16 2009 a month long snowy cold spell begins
Optimus Prime replied to damianslaw's topic in Historic Weather
The period 17th December 2009 - 15th January 2010 averaged -0.2 celsius. -
Well we currently have a government that refuses responsibility of food supply over it's citizens. If they can't take responsibility of that then what hope have we got.
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It's not just about vested interests. The government has and still does pump vast sums of money in to the oil & gas industry to keep it propped up. The natural evolution of of markets will force us over to carbon neutrality at some point, but this isn't even remotely enough. Carbon dioxide needs to removed from the air and sequestered back to where it came. That's probably going to require something close to a trillion tonnes. That's carbon capture on steroids, and the technology is still many years away. We also have to deal with the sheer amount of heat being absorbed by the oceans to contend with. The extent to which our species have transformed the planet cannot be put in to perspective - it's absolutely mind boggling. It's reported our activity of dumping enormous amounts of CO2 in to the air we breath has caused the stratosphere to contract by about 400 metres over the last 40 odd years. Climate emissions shrinking the stratosphere, scientists reveal | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Exclusive: Thinning indicates profound impact of humans and could affect satellites and GPS I just don't think the human mind is capable of visualising the extent to which we're accelerating the ageing of earth as a habitable planet. Our energy output is equivalent to 4 Hiroshima bombs every second. That's 345,000 bombs every day - 125 million a year. Four Hiroshima bombs a second: how we imagine climate change THECONVERSATION.COM The planet is building up heat at the equivalent of four Hiroshima bombs worth of energy every second. And 90% of that heat is going into the oceans. Right, now I’ve got your attention. It’s widely acknowledged… 90% of that is absorbed in to the oceans as latent heat. This doesn't take in to account the fact land use comprises 40% for agriculture. This leaves little for the vast sum of wild biomass dependent on the sensitive nature of the earth's ecosystems. Ultimately, we need many more scientists running for government. Government advisers often get ignored, and this filters down to a poorer and much less stable society where science can be brushed aside for political point scoring to appease the much less educated in society.