Optimus Prime

In the CET record August 1912 recorded a mean maxima of 16.1 C. There are currently four April's with higher mean maxima and seven warmer October's.

The earth's sea and air temperatures are off the charts ATM (2035 territory?). I think we can turn a blind eye to 20c 'uppers' not delivery very high temperatures this time round.

Interesting chart concerning the arctic. Appears to be either large pools of surface water appearing above the icecap going by those anomalies or more likely the ice is actually fragmenting and entirely melting, exposing ocean water in areas that wouldn't normally be there. It may also be due to enhancements in the way the model expresses data, as there has been an update recently. But given the astonishing heat content of the NH oceans, I doubt it's a data issue. Compared to the end of the melt season (September) for some previous years (1991 - 2020 baseline) 2022 2012 2002 1992 1982 1972 1962 This year has to be the turning point towards an ice free summer arctic ? before 2030...

It is true though the south has warmed, relative to the previous 30 year periods, quite a bit faster compared to the north.

But haven't we just left an extended dry period !!

You mean vastly overcompensating this rather average, wet July?

Wonder what the temperature anomaly is (if we have one) to a depth below the surface.

2010, a very chilly year overall but had a warm sunny June & July. Disappointing August but the summer as a whole was a decent one.

June 2010 had some memorably warm, sunny weather in the SE. This June reminds me quite a bit of it in the NW - the weather has been outstanding here since roughly April.

Yeah. June's for example, at least temperature wise, were actually very decent in the 1960's, averaging 14.6; much warmer than the 1990's at 14.1 and roughly similar to the 2010's. Be interesting to see the rainfall and sunshine figures for that month and whether or not the decent temperatures were hampered by them.

Very interesting how the snow, to some extent, managed to survive so far in to the exceptionally warm period that followed .

Temperature wise this May is nothing like May 2012 which was much cooler than average until the final week.

Mmm. In the NW it has felt unusually mild and muggy so far.

Both points are incorrect. It has been a warmer than average spring and sea ice has been well below the 81-2010 mean.

Unseasonably cool ?

Why don't you just check out the regional dataset in this case UK and regional series WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Download time-series of monthly, seasonal and annual values. Files can be downloaded in rank or year order. The CET series has been around since the 1600's. It's standardised so it's absolutely right it should be left as is.

The early - mid 70's certainly were mild with regards to winter (avg is 4.1). Generally speaking due to the run of mild December's. 69/70 - 2.96 70/71 - 4.43 71/72 - 4.93 72/73 - 4.86 73/74 - 5.43 74/75 - 6.40 75/76 - 5.16 76/77 - 3.23

Interesting projected temperature anomaly for the 5th March; Exceptional warmth being pumped in to Greenland. Conversely, some very cold air poised to drain south over NW Europe. Not dissimilar to the very start of April 2021.

We're obviously not at the level of warming that can prevent a winter similar to 2010 or even colder. It's ludicrous to make statements like 2012 / 2013 may now be regarded as a very cold winter. It was similar drivel spoken about only 15 years ago.

April 2021 would surely be added to the list for late winter cold. At least in terms of average minimum temperature (much lower than January this year). May 2021 also felt particularly cold at times.

Lol well it seems like a legit reason this time round!

After the short sharp freeze potentially near-record breaking warmth to follow for some. One of the modern intense cold snaps followed by notable warmth. Not like the 70's at all.

A very cold spell of weather. How the ten day average of -2.1 C compares; 2010 managed a run of 11 consecutive days beneath freezing; averaging -4.2 C Other than that year, you have to go back to 1981; -1.7 C 1962 9 days; -2.7 C 1890; a whopping 18 days below freezing averaging -2.1 C and a lowest 10 day average of -3.1 C Clearly 2010 is remarkable for the intensity but 1890 had longevity. Whilst this year isn't unprecedented, it is historically significant.

Assuming the CET is 0.7 C by the 17th then the remainder of the month will need to average; 10.2 = 5.0 9.2 = 4.5 5.2 = 2.7 (colder than March 2013 and coldest month since Dec' 2010) 8.1 = 4.0 -0.6 = 0.1 (equalling 1981) -2.4 = -0.7 (equalling 2010) -2.6 = -0.8 (equalling 1890)

Certainly a very cold first half to December based on the current ECM 2m temperatures (in Celsius). 9th 2.8 10th 2.4 11th 2.0 12th 1.7 13th 1.6 14th 1.3 15th 1.0 A selection of other December's with a very cold first half. 2012 2.3 2010 -0.2 2008 2.3 1991 2.1 1987 2.4 1981 0.9 1976 1.9 1950 1.7 1933 1.1 1890 0.1 Perhaps 3rd or 4th coldest since 1890 having done a rough scan over the data. (There might be colder ones in there)