Optimus Prime

A memory from December 2015 sticks out. Sometime after mid-month, early morning (1-ish) I was travelling to Brookwood from Bracknell and it was absolutely shocking the mildness - a temperature gauge on one of the office towers was reading 15C and a strong wind was blowing. It felt like a warm July night! -tropical. There were a number of mornings that month (possibly approaching double figures) where it felt almost as warm as this. In amazing contrast, December 2010 and near to Christmas, I was (regrettably) drinking in Camberley in a nightclub called Tru. Finished at about 2-ish, got a lift back home, digital thermometer was reading -11C, but it didn't really feel that cold. I think it droped close to -15C that morning. Two similar locations, two very different conditions!

The temperatures look quite low, but hardly a winter wonderland for northern Europe towards the end of December. Cold but i would be dissapointed if I was living in Sweden, and at the end of December all that had settled is a couple of inches! Good god this winters been a long and unpleasant drag so far .

Its not just this country that has been suffering. Most of the countries that are normally on or just below the line that experience at least some cold and snow have really been suffering. Every year it seems whenever we get a spell (7-days) of decent cold and snow, we pay for it later on with mild magnitudes greater in intensity. I suppose this does correlate with a warming climate. December not that long ago registered as s cooling month. Now we have no months that show either indifference or cooling. An additional warming of 1.0C+ scares the living-sht out of me in terms of winter.

This winter certainly ranks up there with the worst, that is away from Scotland and northern Ireland. It's nowhere near as bad as 2015, but I can't think of many poorer start to winters as this one 1/3 through, Will take something to rescue this one.

Get the feeling the jigsaw pieces will fall into place at the end of Dec/Early Jan. The cold probably persisting for much of the month too. -1.2°C but more than likely subject to changd

Lately I've seen the word 'god' thrown around lately. Lets be realistic....

Just what the doctor ordered.

Shouldn't forget though that the distribution and placement of cold pooling is very important. Feb/March 2018 had a very long draw of extremely cold air out from Siberia, at a time when there was some unusually cold air (even for the region) and that really amplified what would normally be something more akin to the March's of 1996 & 2006; cold for the time of the year, but for least favoured counties such as the south east, never really produced anything too meaningful. February & March 2005 is an example where despite great synoptics, produced mostly temperamental lying snowfall that thawed during the day. Hypothetically had the same conditions been met earlier on with regards to the 2018 cold wave, it would have no doubt been colder. But it's not often, even in mid winter these days, we have cold like that to latch onto. Quite rare.

Well surely whoever pulled this thing together has at the very least sat in a science lesson at school? lol

Your comments about the ECM snow precipitation map are valid though. It's almost like whoever wrote the code for it put the UK at a similar elevation to Ben Nevis. Not sure why it hasn't been sorted out after all this time.

Carlisle's looking like a favourable spot.

My understanding from Feb/Mar is that it takes at the very least a week to ten days before the impacts of the SSW to percolate down through the stratosphere to the troposphere and then drive the reversal of winds lower down at ground level. I understand that there might be other factors in our favour this time around but for the PV to be fully contorted, there is still a rather short waiting game.

He probably should at the very least have included a date stamp.

A brief one from Mr.Bastardi over on Twitter;

In ref to my above post In comparison to Dec 95', even the upper air temperature profile matches. That resulted in maximum temperatures close to freezing for most. Hopefully the other model members will hop aboard the ECM gravy train.

Reminds me of early December 1995 that

Latest BBC forecast presented by Darren Bett going for colder air to win out. A very large area of high pressure cementing itself over Scandinavia, pulling in increasingly cold conditions next week. Air coming from a long way east. For the time being, cold and wintry at times for northern areas. Mild/very mild at times for the south.

Daily update...mmm clue is in the name as to why the detail changes, sometimes on a daily basis.

Flipping heck!

Some mild spells but generally cold with more unsettled weather steared S’wards as the month progresses. Start of a memorable winter. CET not far from normal at 4.0C but still the coldest for 8 years.

meh never mind wil wait for your analysis later.

Always wondered whether this statement is scientifically proven? It's common knowledge that colder air is denser than warmer air, but is it actually that hard to shift for this part of the world (surrounded by the ocean and the winds) There are certainly examples where the cold appears to form a wall against warmer moister air, but there are equally as many examples where cold air has been quickly pushed well away despite all the odds. I think it's more to do with pressure. Wherever the pressure moves, the air will be displaced with it regardless of density. Even huge cumbersome cells of high pressure tend to get easily overwhelmed in this part of the world.

Lol, you made it a whole 2-hours before coming back.

Not really. End Feb/early March we had possibly the coldest possible easterly for so late in the month, and that occurred at the right time when air moving out from Siberia was exceptionally cold - even for that part of the world. Not every easterly is going to bring sub zero maximum temperatures, the majority and especially in a warmer world will just be plain cold. I think what we're seeing unfold is a very typical late November cool/cold spell. The one element that makes it all interesting (together with how deep that anticyclone gets) is how the pressure pattern evolves after the easterly and whether or not the area of high pressure will skate towards Greenland. This is definitely looking edgy at the moment. Metoffice latest forecast generally indicates a low probability of disruptive weather occurring.

But we're still not seeing what you mention repeatedly for today. Still a push of height rises towards Greenland and potential for an undercut of low pressure systems moving out from eastern Canada. Northern areas could do quite well out of that.