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Porto

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    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    In terms of what the models are showing, this system actually appears to be further west atm than predicted. Im not sure if this means we may see a northwards turn further west, and thus bring more of the SE into play, or if its just gonna play out a little bit slower than the models had previously.

    • Like 2

    Storm Ciarán

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Gazse9 said:

    Not sure what this means...but seems we have 2 low centres which wasn't on the Fax Charts or anything else I can find..

    Could contain:

    Could contain:

    Thats just the visualisation not being sure what to do with the stretched out center. This is more accurate:

    image.thumb.png.1b9dda3a2b54bc2d5b898d56124d3798.png

    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Porto

    UKMO high res again still more or less on the same track, Im worried by the small spots of up to 70mph winds that keep getting surprisingly far inland in the SE, I dunno if I should interpret it as potential short bursts of strong winds or just general model "noise". With only a yellow warning inland, that might catch people off guard if it does occur. I do expect some red warnings to occur across the SW and coasts of the S and SE potentially soon though from the Met based off of these charts.

    image.thumb.png.c7067f49f8238ec0260a4157e2df405c.pngimage.thumb.png.4a99e525d56cd672eaad9a0bd3d56b91.png

     

    EDIT: The Channel Islands potentially having 120mph would also be absolutely wild

    image.thumb.png.5377fb35c1d742eb059ac736c24a7b0f.png

     

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Most models keeping the general track for their 06z runs, maybe a touch further north for those in the east but certainly keeping it mostly to the coast/far SE corner still.

    I did however notice that on the high res version of the UKMO model that a small band of heavier winds have been showing up for a few runs as the storm goes off into the North Sea, this time however its started peaking around 70mph in a thin corridor over Reading/London.  We don't have many high res models to look at, so this is realistically the only model showing it so far, so take it with a grain of salt. But interesting its picked up such a relatively small feature.

     

    image.thumb.png.9e47c2d81469a994bea6f481f03cb11a.pngimage.thumb.png.a5c4573abde58a2a581450e5171ef5e9.pngimage.thumb.png.6d3511a60e5640d39887ceccfb338f8b.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I wouldn't look too deeply at forecasts this far out, I generally find they moderate forecasts until closer to the time due to uncertainty.

    Generally all models are still going for -some- kinda low across the UK still on Wednesday, but it does seem they're become further apart in terms of actual track. I think its mostly going to come down to how the jet stream is being modelled, as its a bit different per model.

    - ICON seems to have the storm riding the northern part of the jet stream and then being pulled around by the low's just NW of us.

    - GFS has the jet pointed more towards the south, and thus taking the storm further south.

    - ECM is somewhat in-between, but the latest run (06z) doesn't go far enough to know for sure.

    - UKV doesn't have publicly available models showing the Atlantic as far as im aware, but looks inbetween the ECM and ICON.

    The disturbance that's currently being tracked by the NHC in the southern North Atlantic is an influence too, all models are drastically different in dealing with that, may become easier once it actually turns into a tropical storm

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, plymsunshine said:

    So early in the season for such a vigorous looking system! I've rarely seen any like that happen before mid August, let alone mid June!

    Yeah! The ocean where hurricanes form is unusually very warm, especially during El Nino, so these earlier storms may really pack a punch we usually don't see this early on. Still too early on to say how itll actually turn out though of course.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models are likely still struggling to figure out what's going to happen with this Tropical Storm out in the Atlantic too, once that forms the models might get a better grip at what's going on this side of the Atlantic.

    For example at the moment, GFS takes the storm up into the middle of the Atlantic before throwing it towards Canada, whereas the ECM has it head towards the Lesser Antilles, so that high pressure over the N Atlantic is definitely being modelled differently between them.

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The control going for a heat pump of +20 uppers😳

    gens-0-0-324.thumb.png.1efc94677acdfd3098c7624ecbd6efa1.png

    but it's in la la land and a very outlandish outlier but you never know.

    ens_image.thumb.png.bdf3b6c64dcd9f6b7cd771bb4c2ec227.png

     

     

    Wild that this outlier would still be almost 3-4c below what we managed to get last year (25.2c uppers)

    I don't like that these outliers have started to pop up towards the end of June/beginning of July though... its what happened last year (although I realise that the below is still not as much of an outlier as the Sheffield one)

    34A4E346-A7AC-40C7-A1B1-B30FD83B9478.jpe

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, ancientsolar said:

    Not only for summer, but also as we enter Autumn , - I'm curious, what sort of Sea temps are there when the Hurricanes form around the U.S and Caribbean, we normally end up with weakening storms crossing the atlantic? Would this sea in anyway feed them? 

    Even with significant anomalies, hurricanes cannot survive off the waters near the UK, its simply too cold. I suppose it wouldn't be impossible for a subtropical storm to potentially  get near our shores, just as they have for Portugal/Spain, but I think everything would have to align perfectly for it to happen any time soon.

    • Like 3

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Porto

    28 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    Getting genuinely worried about what's happening to the jet stream these days. The lack of rainfall as result seems endless, and these long dry spells seem to get more and more frequent. People claim the UK will get wetter as a result of Climate Change - and who am I to say they're wrong - but we don't seem to be on that kind of trajectory at all. 

    I think the expectation is that winters will become even wetter, and the offset of drier summers wont be enough to prevent the increase of yearly rainfall

    • Like 1

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The models this event sure have liked to make quite big moves every time the Met Office seems to put out a new warning 😅

    Amber warning for Sunday, then the models pushed back the extremes of the heat to Mon-Tues

    Red warning pushed today, while the models suddenly pull back on the widespread extreme heat on Tues.

    Not to say these warnings aren't valid anymore (Tuesday still shows 40c+ in some models in the east), just a little bit coincidental

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