[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

GFS 00z more or less similar to the last run, perhaps fractionally cooler (raw temps suggest 36c instead of the 37c in the 18z run) but really its practically identical up until Thursday.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think Gravesend might be out of the picture, I'm sure I read somewhere it had been dismantled!  Shame if so, because it consistently outperformed the models in terms of heat!  Can anyone confirm?

Oh wow you're right! Well I suppose Heathrow and Northolt then.. https://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/famous-weather-station-closed-191601/

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

It seems that in order to probably get our 40c+ we'd still have to see more westward movement to guarantee 23c+ uppers to sit over London. As Heathrow/Northolt are the most likely to be able to hit those temperatures. I suppose Gravesend isnt out of the picture either. Regardless its definitely apparent that we're gonna be seeing high 30's somewhere in the South East, unless we get some "badly" placed thunderstorms of course.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Not too dissimilar from the last one, seems slightly less heat to the west, but more up the east coast in this scenario. Temps should be similar to the ones shown on the ECM, UKV, ICON, ARPEGE.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

EDIT: Ok thats definitely 38c

ICON indeed going for around 36c in the far South East, maybe even a tiny little area of 38c there? Hard to tell this far zoomed out.

 

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

The difference between the midday charts for Thursday and Friday sure are stark! Uppers drop from 23c to as low as 9/10c in the South East.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

ECM looks to be marginally west at T96, although hard to do direct comparisons due to the 12 hour difference.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

GEM showing 36c in North London, 38c in the Norfolk area for Thursday. Wouldn't be too far off its rocker as long as you don't add ontop of those temperatures like the GFS/ECM.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Wed/Thurs temps on the Euro around the same before, 34c/35c ish which could mean up to 36c/37c locally, maybe higher but it really depends on cloud cover and how quickly that low moves in.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

ECM 0z uppers seemingly the same as they were on the 12z (maybe slightly faster on being pushed out) keeping a decent amount of heat until at least Friday still. If anything it feels like the ECM and GFS are getting further away from each other the closer we get to the event...

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

A lot of the GFS ensembles seem to agree on the heat being pushed out by Thursday, but the main 0z GFS run itself doesn't agree. Split still exists although if taking it at face value, the even hotter scenario is looking less likely.

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Here are those raw values.

The site always shows the maximum temperatures being around 7am. I think it's because it's based on US time.

There's actually a UK equivalent of this website, showing in Celsius and the BST timezone.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/temperature/20190726-1200z.html

[Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

35c now on the met office forecast for Northolt in NW London. Already 24c in South London, 25c in Bournemouth

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, WhiteFox said:

The Met Office app has been as useful as a chocolate teapot when it comes to forecasting this snow! At 5pm I was supposed to be under drizzle, and it was showing mostly sleet from about 9pm.

About an hour ago it has heavy snow through to about 3am, and it now has light snow (which is correct), dry until 11pm, light snow until 2am and then heavy snow until 6am! It's making it up as it goes along!

It's honestly been dead on here, correct times for the first initial passing of snow and then a quieter period. Might justve been lucky though

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Met Office keeps extending the snowfall forecast here, lasting throughout the entirety of Friday and into early Saturday morning. Im having a hard time believing that will happen but we'll see

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Matty88 said:

Looks to me as if the front is grinding to a hault - could potentially leave many disappointed? Signs not good so far 

Thats just the M4 wall of doom kicking in 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Im on higher ground in S London (150m ish) and its just starting to get to the ground, very light though

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Could be imagining it, but smatterings of the Thames Streamer could be starting up.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Ben Blizzard said:

Anyone know why London & SE is listed as Amber on the warnings page but still yellow on the map??

Because the amber warning goes slightly into the London & SE area, but its a separate warning.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Interestingly the Met Office forecast for around here on their website suggests around 9 hours of snow. On their updated website, it suggests up to 24 hours of snow.