[Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?]

Just now, i luv snow said:

I think it is slightly ahead, the link previously posted is UTC (1 hour behind BST) so at 10.50am in 2003 it was 31.5, so we are over a degree ahead as it stands!

Oops, youre definitely right. Totally forgot about this stuff usually being shown at UTC. Definitely ahead then 

[Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?]

33.1c at Heathrow at 11am, which compared to 2003 is actually slightly behind. But not by much

[Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?]

Just under 29c at Heathrow at 9am. 30c by either 9:30 or 10am for sure.

[Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

Met Office actually showing thunder showers on their forecast for Heathrow now. Top number of 38c still on hold though (after switching inbetween 38 and 39 several times)

 

[Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

My weather station already 27C - of course it's the official sites that count

Heathrow has hit 27c on the half hour, so wouldnt be too crazy

[Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?]

I dont think thats actual rain. Other radar services arent picking it up. Perhaps some interference?

EDIT: Scratch that, it did appear on others, I didn't go back enough! Mostly diminished already and stayed off shore for the most part.

[Thursday 25th July weather observations - A record breaking day for heat?]

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/top-20/maxt I think theres a couple missing from this list, but it has the well known ones.

[Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

25.1c in Kenley on the London border already at 7am, 2c above predicted already there.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

0z ARPEGE (zoomed in) showing 40c in the London area.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Certainly less wide spread 39c on there, but the inclusion of 40c makes it the second model to do so. Rest could be believably added upon temp wise with the usual values to get pretty close too. And with both the met and BBC showing 39c on their forecasts.. pretty damn wild

[Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

Bloody hell, I had to see it with my own eyes to believe it.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Indeed the EURO 4 has 37c when zoomed in.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Looking at the radar currently, I believe some may clip West London (aka our two typical hot spots). But it does have more or less a whole day to dry out, and the ARPEGE model even has rainfall over London included into their model for tonight. So I guess they presume up to 40c even with rain.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

I think the actual positioning of that 40c is perhaps something to be ignored from the model, but it does mean that there seems to be the POTENTIAL of 40c somewhere in the London up to Cambridgeshire area. Something the models have yet to actually really go as far to say. But I wouldnt put a bet on it.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Switching to the Maximum T2 on Meteociel and this view, shows a little 40c, hidden by the top right bar. Make that of what you will

EDIT: Added a better view

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Met Office evening forecast puts an 80% chance of the July record being broken, 40% chance of the overall record being broken.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

UKV showing 39c in a very WIDE area. Insane

 

[Hot week - guess the temperature competition]

Jersey isnt actually part of the UK, so I don't believe it would count.

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Met Office predicts 38c in Kew Gardens, Heathrow on Thursday

 

[Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

Norwich already at 23c at 8am, an hour ahead of schedule.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

GFS 00z showing around 37c again in the London area for Thursday. 1 or 2 degrees on top could still apply to go up to 39c.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

Tomorrow might actually give us a good indication of what was modelled vs what actual temperatures might be like for Thursday. It'll be a similar setup (albeit cooler), but even the Met and BBC have 34/35c predicted, whereas the models are sitting a bit lower (ECM at 30c, GFS, ICON and GEM 31c, and the others for 32c/33c mostly). If those 34/35c values turn out right, we may have to consider adding up to 4c to charts on Thursday (just by the ECM difference). 

All speculation on my behalf though, its usually never that simple. For all I know tomorrow could break the July record instead and Thursday ends up being around the same.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

As others have said, 36c shown on the GFS for the London area. Add the typical 1 or 2 to get 37/38c should mean a July record broken, overall might be a bit more difficult. However both the BBC and Met have 37c forecasted on their website, so we'll see.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

I've been waiting for some kinda fall back into the "downgrades" these events usually end up experiencing, but the closer we get the more apparent this is a very significant event. July record almost looks certain to fall with the Met Office predicting themselves 37c somewhere in the SE, it's still crazy to think that 40c is really not completely out of the question (even if still a low chance). And now the last 12 hours of models have shown that this might not all be over by Friday. Very interesting weather watching times

[Hot week - guess the temperature competition]

40.1c Kew Gardens Thursday 

(40c+ is pretty unlikely imo but gotta aim high)