[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Navgem Special train in coming . Choo Choo . Only 45c at 1pm

I think it may be overdoing it slightly, like just a smidge. Tiny bit. 

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Is there any explanation why the hottest temperatures on quite a few of the models are up towards Lincolnshire? Typically the hottest temps have always been around London/SE, and occasionally a little further north (as we saw with the Cambridge record). But with some models, for example, the UKV, showing up to 40c up there and 36-38c in the south... it seems a little odd. I guess this is cloud related in this situation?

 

EDIT: Okay I realise its not quite Lincolnshire after looking at it again, but the point still stands

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

From my point of view, the slowly pushing back of the hottest day really shouldn't be overly shocking. We know sometimes how progressive models like to bring in lows through/near the UK, just because that's USUALLY what happens. But the setup atm is clearly not moving as fast as normal, and therefore everything else gets pushed back.

The REAL danger of this, is that the models may still be showing the heat moving out too quickly compared to the reality post-peak, we've sorta seen this happening already with next week in at least the south east potentially not getting too far away from 30c. Complete speculation on my behalf I'm aware, but just a thought.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

From a very quick look at the 00z GFS members, it almost looks like more of the members now believe Tuesday could end up being the hottest day, although the entire period of Sunday-Tuesday is quite hot on all of them.

 

The split between the members purely just seems to be a disagreement of how quickly that low moves in over everything.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

It's one run, its one permutation. I know this. Its extremely low chance to pull off, I know this....

But oh my god the idea of having to live through TWO 42c+ days sounds horrific

[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

35.2c, Bedford, Sunday 17th

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

People acting like the storm is half way over the UK already 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

1 minute ago, Herefordweather said:

Disappointed by the BBC live reporters saying winds not as bad as forecast. The red warning has only just come into affect. This is poor form from them.

What?? Its barely even reached here yet. Good lord

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Ill admit, I didnt expect the warning to come out just before 4am, figured they might wait until the morning. But better late then never I guess

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Perhaps im missing something but surely the UKV shouldve been out by now?? Seems rather late

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Obviously going to take it with a pinch of salt, but those lighter colours in the SE corner cutting through London on the AROME goes straight over me with mid 80's mph dont look fun..

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

2 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

The GFS looks like quite a big downgrade to me, inland areas mostly in the 60s with only coastal areas reaching 80 mph...

Ignoring the whole fact that the SE corner is covered in 70+ mph winds, sure

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

GFS seems to be (mostly) the same, more stretched out as it goes over the UK resulting it looking a little bit more south? GFS so low res though that its not super useful for specifics

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

The Met switching to a watch + warning system might not be a terrible idea. A Red Watch over most of S England would make sense to fill in the gap between the Red Warning and Amber Warning when confidence isnt super high.

All waiting on those 18z runs now, despite my years of model watching I never remember the times they come out 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

I swear some people in here take personal offence when people just even remotely suggest to be careful in a RED WARNING storm. Wild

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

ECM rolling out as we speak, should be interesting to see where it goes

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

32 minutes ago, Sionzzz said:

I live in North Wales, my local weather station (5 miles up the road) has recorded gusts of up to 81mph this evening from Storm Dudley, my lights have been flickering, it’s been howling and my letter box has blown in a couple of time yet the unstrapped trampoline and garden furniture are still in situ in my garden, am I missing something when people say 60mph winds are life threatening or is North wales just used to this type of weather and have created properties etc to withstand this type of weather, garden’s being bigger so moving furniture being less of an issue etc? 
I’m new to meteorology especially storms so please tell me if gusts are different to wind speeds etc I want to learn.

60mph is usually "fine" in most areas during the winter, definitely risk of flying objects injuring people and damaging property, but generally no where near as big of a risk as Eunice will be giving, considering the 70-80mph inland gusts potential. Areas that typically see higher wind speeds (which North Wales does) usually have stronger trees, as any other trees that aren't strong enough to withstand the winds will have already fallen over a long time ago, areas usually more central and south to the country will have had less powerful windstorms to knock down these weaker trees, so when a strong storm comes through, the risk of trees falling becomes much higher and a danger. This also applies to anything built not particularly well, or at least badly maintained; usually roof tiles, fences and occasionally thin walls.

Transport in general also becomes an issue with debris that could potentially derail trains or cause car crashes, this becomes especially a problem for storms that happen during the day.

When people say a storm is dangerous/damaging/life threatening, these are the things people are usually talking about.

 

Also how you've managed to get a 81mph wind gust without the trampoline moving is however very impressive, we saw winds push a trampoline onto train tracks earlier today, your trampoline could've easily done the same in the right circumstances, probably should tie it down.

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm torn. I love weather extremes, but I also realise how much trouble this could cause unless we have a 12 hour lockdown. And I'm a bit worried for my shed. I woke in the middle of the night in 1987 and seriously thought the world was ending, bit scared when it gets that strong!

I think it comes down to being amazed at the power of weather and nature in general, but ALSO realising how damaging that power can truly be. Basically people should be rational about their amazement and not allow it to override the logic that it can be VERY dangerous. 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

While theres obviously time to go, Im so used to wind speeds being dramatically dropped downwards on subsequent model runs. But almost every model here keeps increasing the speeds and becoming more in line with each other with those increased speeds. Could absolutely see this storm going into the history books the same 87 and 90 did at this -current- rate.

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

5 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Remember that in the 87 storm winds gusted to 94mph in Central London! Won't he anywhere near that. Though that was at 2am when folk were in bed or at least indoors. 

The ICON-EU and MET already briefly go for high 80s low 90s in the very south of London... Im not fully confident it WONT happen honestly (but still definitely on the high end of the models)

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

The major models all showing around 70-85mph in my local area for gusts is quite impressive, still early days with potential track and strength changes but even with a climbdown will be quite an event. Lost the fence in the 2013 storm here but luckily ours is built a little bit better this time!

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Unless you live in the far south or lucky enough to live on a hill in northern England, pretty much a non event for most, just like the rest of winter.

Im not sure if 70mph - 90 mph winds over a vast area of the UK during the middle of the day is a "non-event"

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

3 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

GEM... again suggesting what looks to me like 90-100mph gusts. Can't be right. I used meteologix.com earlier today and it was more like 70-80mph for the morning run which was similar. Maybe something wrong with meteociel but im not sure if that makes sense/could be possible or not. 

Meteociel shows 10 metre winds, so theyre going to be stronger than surface level shown on meteologix

[Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Is there any convenient list somewhere with the highest temperatures ever recorded in the UK? Most ive found are outdated, or only containing a few days. Presuming the current Heathrow forecast of 36c+ for 5 days by the Met actually happened, makes me wonder how many days may be within the top 10 of all time, and potentially even in a row.

[Friday 31st July weather observations]

Already 27c just south east of London, 4c higher than the ARPEGE had at this time